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Post by jigger on Nov 3, 2017 17:07:00 GMT
Sefton Tories are less dead than Sefton Liberal Democrats - 41,812 votes on June 8 for them compared to just 14,879 for the Liberal Democrats. That's almost three times as many votes for the Tories than the Liberal Democrats. Though I have to admit I was staggered to see that Labour polled more votes in Bootle alone than the Tories did across the whole of Sefton. That would have been totally unthinkable just 30 years ago. In parliamentary terms there's no Sefton Conservatives. I was of course regarding their situation on the council where they have a Sefton Conservative group which looks set to diminish and perhaps disappear completely should this parliament run its course. There is a risk of that. But though the popularity of the Conservative Party in Sefton is a lot less than what it used to be (not being able to get even a third of the vote in Sefton Central is truly dreadful), it could be that the Tories are quite close to their floor of support now and won't drop much lower. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 3, 2017 17:32:09 GMT
Agree. Why should such posts be tolerated? I may shitpost occasionally but I'm not offensive. Indeed looks like the post has been taken down, which I welcome. Your attitude does you much credit considering that your views are quite right-wing. It is good when right-wingers show opposition to racism. A Tory councillor in neighbouring Hounslow, whom I know quite well, is similar in this way and I respect him for it. What do you base this assessment on? I've seen no evidence of any right-wing views |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 17:32:42 GMT
I think your taking jigger to serious
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Post by jigger on Nov 3, 2017 17:42:22 GMT
I think your taking jigger to serious I am serious with regards to this. It is the most important "controversial" political principle that I hold - there are other political principles more important to me (freedom of speech, right to fair trial etc) but they aren't particularly controversial any more. The desirability of two-party politics is controversial and people (as they are entitled to do) disagree with each other on it. So it is important to try and win the debate and persuade others round to my side of the argument. But it certainly wasn't my intention to divert discussion on to my views - I was merely responding to your question. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 3, 2017 17:45:02 GMT
In parliamentary terms there's no Sefton Conservatives. I was of course regarding their situation on the council where they have a Sefton Conservative group which looks set to diminish and perhaps disappear completely should this parliament run its course. There is a risk of that. But though the popularity of the Conservative Party in Sefton is a lot less than what it used to be (not being able to get even a third of the vote in Sefton Central is truly dreadful), it could be that the Tories are quite close to their floor of support now and won't drop much lower. Well....they only lose Harington in a very bad year. But they've lost almost everything else and I could see them reduced to holding just that ward. |
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Post by jigger on Nov 3, 2017 17:55:33 GMT
There is a risk of that. But though the popularity of the Conservative Party in Sefton is a lot less than what it used to be (not being able to get even a third of the vote in Sefton Central is truly dreadful), it could be that the Tories are quite close to their floor of support now and won't drop much lower. Well....they only lose Harington in a very bad year. But they've lost almost everything else and I could see them reduced to holding just that ward. And, if I remember correctly, Pete Whitehead suggested that the Tories only won Harington by a few hundred votes at the General election. It is a quite staggering collapse, considering that the Tories got more than 60% of the vote across Sefton in the 1977 Merseyside County Council elections (admittedly in what was a very good election year) and now they struggle to get more than 20% of the vote (in local elections I should add - they obviously do better in general elections). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 3, 2017 18:11:14 GMT
Well if you want to compare to 1977, the Conservatives were not fat off 50% in Knowsley and Liverpool then and the collapse in those places has been even more precipitous
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 18:30:28 GMT
Well....they only lose Harington in a very bad year. But they've lost almost everything else and I could see them reduced to holding just that ward. And, if I remember correctly, Pete Whitehead suggested that the Tories only won Harington by a few hundred votes at the General election. It is a quite staggering collapse, considering that the Tories got more than 60% of the vote across Sefton in the 1977 Merseyside County Council elections (admittedly in what was a very good election year) and now they struggle to get more than 20% of the vote (in local elections I should add - they obviously do better in general elections). The Tory majority in Crosby was 19,000 (30%+) in 1979. The boundary changes in 1983 and 2010 also benefited the Conservatives, so the Tory decline has been even more stark than it appears. Blundellsands used to be safely Conservative and voted Tory in 1995. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 3, 2017 18:33:09 GMT
If you think the mods should have a word with any poster, you should report the post (or posts) in which they make the objectionable remarks. The report function is in a pull-down menu at the top right of every post (may be placed slightly differently on a mobile). Don't assume that they will have read the post(s) in question. Looking after this forum is not the only thing they do in their spare time. Thanks greenchristian. I decided to take your advice, but it seems as if both the post concerned and the replies to it have been deleted. If it recurs I will certainly do what you suggest. As GC points out, reports are best. We can't cover all threads all the time, and I for one can't check my phone at work. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 3, 2017 18:34:34 GMT
Sefton Tories are less dead than Sefton Liberal Democrats - 41,812 votes on June 8 for them compared to just 14,879 for the Liberal Democrats. That's almost three times as many votes for the Tories than the Liberal Democrats. Though I have to admit I was staggered to see that Labour polled more votes in Bootle alone than the Tories did across the whole of Sefton. That would have been totally unthinkable just 30 years ago. In parliamentary terms there's no Sefton Conservatives. I was of course regarding their situation on the council where they have a Sefton Conservative group which looks set to diminish and perhaps disappear completely should this parliament run its course. I'm fairly certain you and I have had a conversation about Eastleigh Conservatives being moribund. And look what happened! |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 18:44:40 GMT
In parliamentary terms there's no Sefton Conservatives. I was of course regarding their situation on the council where they have a Sefton Conservative group which looks set to diminish and perhaps disappear completely should this parliament run its course. I'm fairly certain you and I have had a conversation about Eastleigh Conservatives being moribund. And look what happened! This has been talked about on UKPR as well - Eastleigh is now a Tory fortress once again. Sutton & Cheam had a similar majority. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Nov 3, 2017 18:45:32 GMT
I'm fairly certain you and I have had a conversation about Eastleigh Conservatives being moribund. And look what happened! This has been talked about on UKPR as well - Eastleigh is now a Tory fortress once again. Sutton & Cheam had a similar majority. And yet at a local level, they are total donkeys. When I turned up down there, they wouldn't even answer an email about getting involved. The Conservatives won that seat despite their activists! |
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 3, 2017 19:03:45 GMT
I think it's a bit early to be calling it a "traditional position". It's only been a trend in polling since the last GE (which, let's not forget, was only a few months ago). And it's only happened at a GE twice in my lifetime. Presumably"traditional " means the 1950s and 1960s, but ignoring the 1970s 80s 90s 00s 30s 20s and most of the 19th century. Combined Con-Lab voteshare was actually slightly above 80% in the 30s as well as the 40s, 50s, and 60s. Which surprised me when I checked the figures earlier. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 19:10:27 GMT
The 30s were dominated by Tory politics. It was the last time the Conservative Party won an election with a majority of the plurality. Ironically also the last PM of outside the big two
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Nov 3, 2017 19:50:27 GMT
Don't forget the ordinary Lib Dem voters who tactically voted Labour this time (happened a lot down here for example and must have happened up there too). But that would be a bizarre thing to do. Labour have always been third here. Always. Yeah not sure i'm understanding the logic there |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 3, 2017 20:59:55 GMT
This has been talked about on UKPR as well - Eastleigh is now a Tory fortress once again. Sutton & Cheam had a similar majority. And yet at a local level, they are total donkeys. When I turned up down there, they wouldn't even answer an email about getting involved. The Conservatives won that seat despite their activists! That is true of virtually all seats won by Labour or Tory. The activists may be good or bad but it is the regional voting intention and the demographics that have the biggest effect on the vote, as shown by the success of the YouGov model... |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 3, 2017 21:03:17 GMT
But that would be a bizarre thing to do. Labour have always been third here. Always. Yeah not sure i'm understanding the logic there There is no "logic"! Most people cast their votes according to the Lab Con two horse race promoted by the media! It is why the "constituency link" so precious to FPTP enthusiasts is so ridiculous! |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 3, 2017 21:17:44 GMT
Yeah not sure i'm understanding the logic there There is no "logic"! Most people cast their votes according to the Lab Con two horse race promoted by the media! It is why the "constituency link" so precious to FPTP enthusiasts is so ridiculous! Not in Southport they don't. Labour came second for the first time in 2017 |
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Post by jigger on Nov 3, 2017 21:48:19 GMT
And, if I remember correctly, Pete Whitehead suggested that the Tories only won Harington by a few hundred votes at the General election. It is a quite staggering collapse, considering that the Tories got more than 60% of the vote across Sefton in the 1977 Merseyside County Council elections (admittedly in what was a very good election year) and now they struggle to get more than 20% of the vote (in local elections I should add - they obviously do better in general elections). The boundary changes in 1983 and 2010 also benefited the Conservatives, so the Tory decline has been even more stark than it appears. Blundellsands used to be safely Conservative and voted Tory in 1995. And despite it being a safe Conservative seat, the Crosby Conservatives were still an active association - my father has a fair few photographs of him campaigning around the constituency with the late Sir Graham Page and others in election campaigns. The Tories (although they knew that they would always win) were never lazy or complacent round here. My father has sometimes said,that if Sir Graham was still alive, he would be very distressed at the current state of the Sefton Central Conservative Association - they really are a shadow of their former self. |
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Post by andrew111 on Nov 3, 2017 21:59:05 GMT
There is no "logic"! Most people cast their votes according to the Lab Con two horse race promoted by the media! It is why the "constituency link" so precious to FPTP enthusiasts is so ridiculous! Not in Southport they don't. Labour came second for the first time in 2017 But clearly if people had cast their votes according to the starting situation in the constituency, Labour would not have come second.. assuming Labour voters did not actually want a Tory MP... Similar swings to Labour happened all over the North, quite unrelated to the vigour of campaigning... |
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