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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 12:52:37 GMT
That's more like it. Beaconsfield's full of strivers, not scroungers so our vote will continue to hold up well here. Hahaha. You know I lived on benefits for 3 years right? But yeah, my family were "scroungers" to you  |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 12:58:40 GMT
I don't agree. I disagree with almost every word beastofbedfordshire writes, not just on principle but because almost all of it would be just plain stupid in practice. But he's entitled to think differently. I find it useful to understand what people in other parties think even if I totally disagree with it. (I've not spotted the racism you refer to, which would be a different matter.) The people I'd think might like to have a word with him are his fellow inmates of the Blue Room, because he is making their party look like a joke. If I wanted to infiltrate CCHQ to write a Tory party manifesto that would make "the longest suicide note in history" look like a world-beater then I'd get him in. The racism is what I am particularly referring to. I moderate a well-known site on social media & I operate a zero-tolerance policy on racism. I'd hope that this forum would at least consider doing the same. Agree. Why should such posts be tolerated? I may shitpost occasionally but I'm not offensive. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Nov 3, 2017 13:08:30 GMT
It was undeniably a excellent win for you, but - hopefully without being too churlish about it - picking Pugh as your candidate is a trick that can only be played once (as with John Leech in Manchester) I certainly think for that reason, though, that drawing sweeping conclusions from the result are unwise - Labour's chances of picking up at least one Southport division next year are pretty decent IMO, and not really affected by this. Yes. And we have always done badly in this ward. I really don't know why. The potential Labour vote just doesn't show, in local elections anyway. So those who do voters largely older people in upmarket retirement flats. Going round it I couldn't really believe that it was pretty much the safest Tory seat in the constituency (until last year woo). But it struck me as noticable that even though Labour chucked a lot at it there wasn't much movement towards them. I think they could've beaten the Tories yesterday, but the turnout in the Laboury areas was pretty low from what i've been told. We normally want high turnout there for tactical reasons but it was the typical Tory areas that turned out (and seemed to back us). |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 13:11:11 GMT
Agree. Why should such posts be tolerated? I may shitpost occasionally but I'm not offensive. Indeed looks like the post has been taken down, which I welcome. Your attitude does you much credit considering that your views are quite right-wing. It is good when right-wingers show opposition to racism. A Tory councillor in neighbouring Hounslow, whom I know quite well, is similar in this way and I respect him for it. I've been moving slowly leftwards within the Conservative Party in the last year or so. I think if I had my way we'd have Ken Clarke as PM and Anna Soubry as Chancellor. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 3, 2017 13:18:01 GMT
Yes. And we have always done badly in this ward. I really don't know why. The potential Labour vote just doesn't show, in local elections anyway. So those who do voters largely older people in upmarket retirement flats. Going round it I couldn't really believe that it was pretty much the safest Tory seat in the constituency (until last year woo). But it struck me as noticable that even though Labour chucked a lot at it there wasn't much movement towards them. I think they could've beaten the Tories yesterday, but the turnout in the Laboury areas was pretty low from what i've been told. We normally want high turnout there for tactical reasons but it was the typical Tory areas that turned out (and seemed to back us). That's because there's been a fair bit of shifting over the years between LibDem and Tory. And voters who would absolutely never vote Labour. I can only assume we shifted more out in the General but I agree that it doesn't look as if it should be such a desert for Labour. |
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Post by liverpoolliberal on Nov 3, 2017 13:35:58 GMT
Going round it I couldn't really believe that it was pretty much the safest Tory seat in the constituency (until last year woo). But it struck me as noticable that even though Labour chucked a lot at it there wasn't much movement towards them. I think they could've beaten the Tories yesterday, but the turnout in the Laboury areas was pretty low from what i've been told. We normally want high turnout there for tactical reasons but it was the typical Tory areas that turned out (and seemed to back us). That's because there's been a fair bit of shifting over the years between LibDem and Tory. And aware talking voters who would absolutely never vote Labour. I can only assume we shifted more out in the General but I agree that it doesn't look as if it should be such a desert for Labour. Southport could really be the most fascinating seat at the next election, with so many different kinds of voter and so many different dynamics going on: - Will natural Labour voters who had tactically voted Lib Dem probably going back to Labour? (Would be amazed if they didn't)
- Can the LDs win back the more moderate Tory leaning voters who so happily voted LD pre 2015 but went back home after the coalition?
- Is the natural LD vote in the seat high enough to keep them competitive?
- Are there too many anti-Labour votes in the seat keeping them out and can the LDs realisitically get them to vote for them instead of the Tories?
- How will the Tories national woes effect their vote and if it gets depressed where does it go?
- Can Labour get into Southport locally and how will it effect their credibility if they don't? Can the Tories stop their slide locally?
The joys of genuine 3 way marginals!
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 14:17:12 GMT
I agree with and reiterate greenchristian's post - if there are any posts that users believe to be in breach of guidelines, please report and we will look at them. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,021
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 3, 2017 15:34:37 GMT
That's because there's been a fair bit of shifting over the years between LibDem and Tory. And aware talking voters who would absolutely never vote Labour. I can only assume we shifted more out in the General but I agree that it doesn't look as if it should be such a desert for Labour. Southport could really be the most fascinating seat at the next election, with so many different kinds of voter and so many different dynamics going on: - Will natural Labour voters who had tactically voted Lib Dem probably going back to Labour? (Would be amazed if they didn't)
- Can the LDs win back the more moderate Tory leaning voters who so happily voted LD pre 2015 but went back home after the coalition?
- Is the natural LD vote in the seat high enough to keep them competitive?
- Are there too many anti-Labour votes in the seat keeping them out and can the LDs realisitically get them to vote for them instead of the Tories?
- How will the Tories national woes effect their vote and if it gets depressed where does it go?
- Can Labour get into Southport locally and how will it effect their credibility if they don't? Can the Tories stop their slide locally?
The joys of genuine 3 way marginals!
Don't forget the ordinary Lib Dem voters who tactically voted Labour this time (happened a lot down here for example and must have happened up there too). In the locals I wouldn't be at all surprised if Labour win nothing again in Southport next year and this result is very relevant in this respect as much as they're trying to downplay it (bearing in mind Sefton Tories are all but dead). |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 15:37:42 GMT
Reminds me of Harbrough. My friend voted Lib Dem tactically this year but now its gobe back to being a Labour Con marginal
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 15:38:24 GMT
That is quite a move maxim
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Post by jigger on Nov 3, 2017 15:44:48 GMT
Reminds me of Harbrough. My friend voted Lib Dem tactically this year but now its gobe back to being a Labour Con marginal Pushing it to describe Harborough as a marginal - it's got a 12,000 Conservative majority. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 3, 2017 15:58:54 GMT
Tbf Watford had a 10k maj before June. You must be upset to see the ipsos poll today jigger. The big 2 down 6 from 84 to 78
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 3, 2017 16:05:59 GMT
Southport could really be the most fascinating seat at the next election, with so many different kinds of voter and so many different dynamics going on: - Will natural Labour voters who had tactically voted Lib Dem probably going back to Labour? (Would be amazed if they didn't)
- Can the LDs win back the more moderate Tory leaning voters who so happily voted LD pre 2015 but went back home after the coalition?
- Is the natural LD vote in the seat high enough to keep them competitive?
- Are there too many anti-Labour votes in the seat keeping them out and can the LDs realisitically get them to vote for them instead of the Tories?
- How will the Tories national woes effect their vote and if it gets depressed where does it go?
- Can Labour get into Southport locally and how will it effect their credibility if they don't? Can the Tories stop their slide locally?
The joys of genuine 3 way marginals!
Don't forget the ordinary Lib Dem voters who tactically voted Labour this time (happened a lot down here for example and must have happened up there too). But that would be a bizarre thing to do. Labour have always been third here. Always. |
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Post by jigger on Nov 3, 2017 16:14:22 GMT
Tbf Watford had a 10k maj before June. You must be upset to see the ipsos poll today jigger. The big 2 down 6 from 84 to 78 Oh, of course any seat (however large its majority) can be lost in the right circumstances - Scotland in 2015 is evidence aplenty for that. But that doesn't change the fact that it is difficult to describe Harborough (and Watford in 2015) as marginal (even if one broadly defines that term). With regards to the poll, it's obviously disappointing, but it's only one poll and we will have to wait and see if the trend is reflected by other polling companies. I am optimistic that, if it is a trend, it can be ridden out and we will return to our traditional position of getting more than 80% of the vote. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,021
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 3, 2017 16:15:51 GMT
Don't forget the ordinary Lib Dem voters who tactically voted Labour this time (happened a lot down here for example and must have happened up there too). But that would be a bizarre thing to do. Labour have always been third here. Always. And in Portsmouth South... |
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Post by greenchristian on Nov 3, 2017 16:29:26 GMT
With regards to the poll, it's obviously disappointing, but it's only one poll and we will have to wait and see if the trend is reflected by other polling companies. I am optimistic that, if it is a trend, it can be ridden out and we will return to our traditional position of getting more than 80% of the vote. I think it's a bit early to be calling it a "traditional position". It's only been a trend in polling since the last GE (which, let's not forget, was only a few months ago). And it's only happened at a GE twice in my lifetime. |
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Post by yellowperil on Nov 3, 2017 16:31:56 GMT
John Pugh is interesting on his win in Duke's, as featured in LDV today.
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Post by jigger on Nov 3, 2017 16:37:02 GMT
Don't forget the ordinary Lib Dem voters who tactically voted Labour this time (happened a lot down here for example and must have happened up there too). In the locals I wouldn't be at all surprised if Labour win nothing again in Southport next year and this result is very relevant in this respect as much as they're trying to downplay it (bearing in mind Sefton Tories are all but dead). Sefton Tories are less dead than Sefton Liberal Democrats - 41,812 votes on June 8 for them compared to just 14,879 for the Liberal Democrats. That's almost three times as many votes for the Tories than the Liberal Democrats. Though I have to admit I was staggered to see that Labour polled more votes in Bootle alone than the Tories did across the whole of Sefton. That would have been totally unthinkable just 30 years ago. |
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Post by johnloony on Nov 3, 2017 16:49:43 GMT
With regards to the poll, it's obviously disappointing, but it's only one poll and we will have to wait and see if the trend is reflected by other polling companies. I am optimistic that, if it is a trend, it can be ridden out and we will return to our traditional position of getting more than 80% of the vote. I think it's a bit early to be calling it a "traditional position". It's only been a trend in polling since the last GE (which, let's not forget, was only a few months ago). And it's only happened at a GE twice in my lifetime. Presumably"traditional " means the 1950s and 1960s, but ignoring the 1970s 80s 90s 00s 30s 20s and most of the 19th century. |
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Khunanup
Lib Dem
Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
Posts: 12,021
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 3, 2017 17:00:30 GMT
Don't forget the ordinary Lib Dem voters who tactically voted Labour this time (happened a lot down here for example and must have happened up there too). In the locals I wouldn't be at all surprised if Labour win nothing again in Southport next year and this result is very relevant in this respect as much as they're trying to downplay it (bearing in mind Sefton Tories are all but dead). Sefton Tories are less dead than Sefton Liberal Democrats - 41,812 votes on June 8 for them compared to just 14,879 for the Liberal Democrats. That's almost three times as many votes for the Tories than the Liberal Democrats. Though I have to admit I was staggered to see that Labour polled more votes in Bootle alone than the Tories did across the whole of Sefton. That would have been totally unthinkable just 30 years ago. In parliamentary terms there's no Sefton Conservatives. I was of course regarding their situation on the council where they have a Sefton Conservative group which looks set to diminish and perhaps disappear completely should this parliament run its course. |
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