European Parliament Election 2019

[Merseymike]

Jul 13, 2019 18:07:51 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Jul 13, 2019 7:03:11 GMT @kipper1 said:

Since these nominations were made by the Council as a package if UvdL's candidacy is torpedoed on Tuesday by the EP could that lead to the rest of the package being altered.

Michel has already been confirmed but Lagarde and Borell haven't. Neither of them are exactly controversy free nominations. I wonder if they'll be sacrificed as part of a new package deal

Michel seems a decent bloke and quite savvy.  Lagarde...I rate her competence but I'm not too sure about her agenda.  Why anyone would want to die in a ditch for that crook Borrell is beyond me.

Don't mind Borell - his foreign policy positions seem quite sensible. Its Lagarde I wouldn't accept - her politics sum up everything wrong with the globalisation outlook
Von der Layen is just a joke candidate. They must have a proper one lined up, surely?

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 13, 2019 18:53:26 GMT Merseymike said:

Jul 13, 2019 18:07:51 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Michel seems a decent bloke and quite savvy.  Lagarde...I rate her competence but I'm not too sure about her agenda.  Why anyone would want to die in a ditch for that crook Borrell is beyond me.

Don't mind Borell - his foreign policy positions seem quite sensible. Its Lagarde I wouldn't accept - her politics sum up everything wrong with the globalisation outlook
Von der Layen is just a joke candidate. They must have a proper one lined up, surely?

I'm surprised you have any time for Borrell given his financial dealings!

I agree though, she must be being used to test the waters. Of course, not impossible that they give the top job to Lagarde after all...

[Foggy]

The nomination of Von der Leyen almost seems like a deliberately absurd deflection that's doomed to failure, in order to distract from how horrendous a choice for Foreign Minister Josep Borrell is.

I've no time for Catalan separatists, but his heavy-handed approach to them isn't democratic or helpful. His appointment has probably created two million extra eurosceptics in Catalonia at a stroke. And that's quite apart from the "financial dealings" mentioned above!

[Merseymike]

Jul 13, 2019 21:26:52 GMT Foggy said:

The nomination of Von der Leyen almost seems like a deliberately absurd deflection that's doomed to failure, in order to distract from how horrendous a choice for Foreign Minister Josep Borrell is.

I've no time for Catalan separatists, but his heavy-handed approach to them isn't democratic or helpful. His appointment has probably created two million extra eurosceptics in Catalonia at a stroke. And that's quite apart from the "financial dealings" mentioned above!

Compared to the Popular Party or the centrists he is relatively mild - its very much the case that all except the separatists are very hostile to them. Across the left-right divide. Even Podemos think they should have the right to a referendum but oppose separation.

I don't think the Spanish dealt with the situation at all well, but it does seem to have strong support

Borell is I think better on issues like the Middle East.

[Merseymike]

Jul 13, 2019 19:15:41 GMT Devil Wincarnate said:

Of course, not impossible that they give the top job to Lagarde after all...

If they do, then I'm voting Leave in a second referendum.

[Georg Ebner]

Committee-Chair(wo)men (thankfully relying on the informations provided by Andrea):

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Wolfgang Munchau in the FT says the EP should vote down Ursula von de Leyen, because she's a weak choice and a weak Commission plays into the hands of the far right.

[Tony Otim]

May 17, 2019 19:57:22 GMT Tony Otim said:

Estonia

Estonia will have 6 MEPs increasing to 7 as and when Brexit happens.

2014 results:

RE ( Reform Party)	(ALDE)	24.3%	2 seats
KESK (Centre Party)	(ALDE)	22.4%	1 seat
Pro Patria	(EPP)	13.9%	1 seat
SDE (Social Democratic Party)	(S&D)	13.6%	1 seat
Indrek Tarand (Independent)	(G-EFA)	13.2%	1 seat

At the start of the year, KESK were leading in the polls, but Reform seem to have moved back into the lead and were the largest party in the Estonian parliamentary elections in March. However KESK then formed a governing coalition with Pro Patria and the right-wing populist EKRE (Conservative People's Party of Estonia), since when KESK's ratings have been steadily declining.
Reform should at least hold their two on an increased vote share, KESK will hold their one on a reduced share. EKRE (ENF) will get one seat and SDE will hold theirs. 
Again the polling is a bit all over the place and according to which poll you look at  the final seat could go to Pro Patria, a 3rd Reform candidate, E200 (Estonia 200 - economic and social liberals) or even a second SDE seat, with the seventh seat being from the same pool of contenders.

(BTW, the leader of Reform would be a contender for the old good-looking politicians thread...)

2019 Results:

Reform	(Renew)	26.2%	+1.9%	2 seats	nc
SDE	(S&D)	23.3%	+9.7%	2 seats	+1
KESK	(Renew)	14.4%	-8.0%	1 seat	nc
EKRE	(ID)	12.7%	+8.7%	1 seat	+1
Pro Patria	(EPP)	10.3%	-3.6%	0 seats*	-1

* Extra seat following Brexit

So as expected for Reform and KESK, SDE did better than predicted to get second and an extra seat. EKRE comfortable got their seat, but Pro Patria will have to wait for Brexit for theirs. E200 were miles off with just 3.2%

[Tony Otim]

May 18, 2019 19:10:31 GMT Tony Otim said:

Cyprus

Cyprus, like Luxembourg and Malta, will remain with just 6 MEPs regardless of Brexit.

2014 REsults:

DISY (Democratic Rally)/ EVROKO (European Party)	(EPP)	37.8%	2 seats
AKEL (Progressive Party of Working People)	(GUE-NGL)	27.0%	2 seats
DIKO (Democratic Party)	(S&D)	10.8%	1 seat
EDEK (movement for Social Democracy)/Green Party	(S&D/G-EFA)	7.7%	1 seat

There was speculation that AKEL were going to come top, but most polling has shown DISY keeping first place, with both parties down a few points. DIKO's vote share looks like being up, but not by enough to get an extra seat. The only likely change is ELAM (National Popular Front, linked with Golden Dawn in Greece, so justifiably can be called fascist) edging out EDEK for the final seat.

2019 Results:

DISY	(EPP)	29.0%	-8.8%	2 seats	nc
AKEL	(GUE-NGL)	27.5%	+0.5%	2 seats	nc
DIKO	(S&D)	13.8%	+3.0%	1 seat	nc
EDEK	(S&D)	10.6%	+2.9%	1 seat	nc

In the end EDEK held off ELAM (8.3%) for the final seat, so nothing changed in terms of seats. DISY's vote dropped significantly, but they just held onto first place and AKEL went a little up rather than a little down.

[Tony Otim]

Apr 16, 2019 21:23:31 GMT Toylyyev said:

Luxembourg - 6 seats

2014 result:

3 seats ±0 37,65% +6,29%     EVP     Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei  
1 seat  ±0 15,01% -1,82%  Gréng/EFA  Déi Gréng    
1 seat  ±0 14,77% -3,89%     ALDE    Demokratesch Partei  
1 seat  ±0 11,75% -7,73%     SPE     Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei  

Single constituency, voting is a legal obligation for citizens aged between 18 and 75, and seats still seem to be attributed using D'Hondt method. The 2018 Chamberwale result would have returned the same seat repartition with the CSPP keeping their third by about a margin of 1%. For it to fall either one of the three other listed parties would have to reach 2/3 of their vote share or a fourth reach half their share. The contenders to the latter threshold would be the parties ranked 5 to 7 in 2018, whereby my first favourite would be the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg.

There is no polling that i am aware of.

2019 Results:

DP	(Renew)	21.4%	+6.6%	2 seats	+1
CSV	(EPP)	21.1%	-16.6%	2 seats	-1
Greens	(G-EFA)	18.9%	+3.9%	1 seat	nc
LSAP	(S&D)	12.2%	+0.4%	1 seat	nc

So not the expected no change election with CSV's vote taking a hammering and losing both a seat and first place to DP.

ADR came closest to a breakthrough with 10.0% and the Pirates getting 7.7%

[andrea]

Beata Szydlo (Poland, Law and Justice) rejected again tonight as Chair of Employment committee: 34 to 19 votes with 2 abstentions.

[Georg Ebner]

Jul 15, 2019 20:49:07 GMT Tony Otim said:

Apr 16, 2019 21:23:31 GMT Toylyyev said:

Luxembourg - 6 seats

2014 result:

3 seats ±0 37,65% +6,29%     EVP     Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei  
1 seat  ±0 15,01% -1,82%  Gréng/EFA  Déi Gréng    
1 seat  ±0 14,77% -3,89%     ALDE    Demokratesch Partei  
1 seat  ±0 11,75% -7,73%     SPE     Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei  

Single constituency, voting is a legal obligation for citizens aged between 18 and 75, and seats still seem to be attributed using D'Hondt method. The 2018 Chamberwale result would have returned the same seat repartition with the CSPP keeping their third by about a margin of 1%. For it to fall either one of the three other listed parties would have to reach 2/3 of their vote share or a fourth reach half their share. The contenders to the latter threshold would be the parties ranked 5 to 7 in 2018, whereby my first favourite would be the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg.

There is no polling that i am aware of.

2019 Results:

DP	(Renew)	21.4%	+6.6%	2 seats	+1
CSV	(EPP)	21.1%	-16.6%	2 seats	-1
Greens	(G-EFA)	18.9%	+3.9%	1 seat	nc
LSAP	(S&D)	12.2%	+0.4%	1 seat	nc

So not the expected no change election with CSV's vote taking a hammering and losing both a seat and first place to DP.

ADR came closest to a breakthrough with 10.0% and the Pirates getting 7.7%

Has CSV ever before been not the strongest party? I don't think so.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 15, 2019 21:38:34 GMT andrea said:

Beata Szydlo (Poland, Law and Justice) rejected again tonight as Chair of Employment committee: 34 to 19 votes with 2 abstentions.

And I thought vdL was a donkey!  Szydlo...awful.

[finsobruce]

Jul 15, 2019 20:49:07 GMT Tony Otim said:

Apr 16, 2019 21:23:31 GMT Toylyyev said:

Luxembourg - 6 seats

2014 result:

3 seats ±0 37,65% +6,29%     EVP     Chrëschtlech-Sozial Vollekspartei  
1 seat  ±0 15,01% -1,82%  Gréng/EFA  Déi Gréng    
1 seat  ±0 14,77% -3,89%     ALDE    Demokratesch Partei  
1 seat  ±0 11,75% -7,73%     SPE     Lëtzebuerger Sozialistesch Aarbechterpartei  

Single constituency, voting is a legal obligation for citizens aged between 18 and 75, and seats still seem to be attributed using D'Hondt method. The 2018 Chamberwale result would have returned the same seat repartition with the CSPP keeping their third by about a margin of 1%. For it to fall either one of the three other listed parties would have to reach 2/3 of their vote share or a fourth reach half their share. The contenders to the latter threshold would be the parties ranked 5 to 7 in 2018, whereby my first favourite would be the Piratepartei Lëtzebuerg.

There is no polling that i am aware of.

2019 Results:

DP	(Renew)	21.4%	+6.6%	2 seats	+1
CSV	(EPP)	21.1%	-16.6%	2 seats	-1
Greens	(G-EFA)	18.9%	+3.9%	1 seat	nc
LSAP	(S&D)	12.2%	+0.4%	1 seat	nc

So not the expected no change election with CSV's vote taking a hammering and losing both a seat and first place to DP.

ADR came closest to a breakthrough with 10.0% and the Pirates getting 7.7%

I see Renew have won seats then, even if they had to go a long way to do it.

[Tony Otim]

Jul 15, 2019 22:29:08 GMT Georg Ebner said:

Jul 15, 2019 20:49:07 GMT Tony Otim said:

2019 Results:

DP	(Renew)	21.4%	+6.6%	2 seats	+1
CSV	(EPP)	21.1%	-16.6%	2 seats	-1
Greens	(G-EFA)	18.9%	+3.9%	1 seat	nc
LSAP	(S&D)	12.2%	+0.4%	1 seat	nc

So not the expected no change election with CSV's vote taking a hammering and losing both a seat and first place to DP.

ADR came closest to a breakthrough with 10.0% and the Pirates getting 7.7%

Has CSV ever before been not the strongest party? I don't think so.

Certainly not in European elections. They've also not fallen below 30% before in European elections, so this was a historically dreadful result for them.

Checking general elections, back in 1964 LSAP got more votes but fewer seats than CSV.

[middyman]

Jul 16, 2019 13:31:15 GMT @kipper1 said:

Greek S&D Socialists also reportedly against

Leading Renew MEP Sophie in 't Veld also not sounding like a yes vote

MEP Sophie in 't Veld, one of the loudest critics of von der Leyen in the centrist Renew Europe group, said the German nominee was “very much the candidate of the member states, simply because of the procedure that was followed.”

But the key question, she said, is: “Are you going to be like the previous Commission, the lap dog of the member states or are you going to be the pitbull that I would like you to be? That’s what I would like to hear.”

In 't Veld, accused von der Leyen of presenting an “insufficient” and “weak” proposal on the rule of law. She also said she would like von der Leyen to be more vocal on racism and xenophobia and the “enforcement” of EU policies.

www.politico.eu/article/live-blog-ursula-von-der-leyen-pitch-to-european-parliament-to-lead-european-commission-president/

The French, Italians etc. won’t like that.

[Devil Wincarnate]

Jul 16, 2019 16:50:20 GMT @kipper1 said:

UK party backing on today's vote

For
Lib Dems
Labour
SNP 

What on earth do either of those parties see in her?

[andrea]

383 in favour
327 against
22 abstentions
1 void


Threshold was 374

[jamie]

Jul 16, 2019 16:50:20 GMT @kipper1 said:

UK party backing on today's vote

For
Lib Dems
Labour
SNP 

Against
Brexit Party
Green Party
Conservative Party
DUP 
Sinn Fein

Did they actually vote this way in the end? 

[Khunanup]

Jul 16, 2019 18:46:49 GMT jamie said:

Jul 16, 2019 16:50:20 GMT @kipper1 said:

UK party backing on today's vote

For
Lib Dems
Labour
SNP 

Against
Brexit Party
Green Party
Conservative Party
DUP 
Sinn Fein

Did they actually vote this way in the end? 

Secret ballot.