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Post by andrew111 on Oct 13, 2017 12:09:41 GMT
ElectoralCalculus has the Tories ahead at the general election in the ward, although those figures may not be reliable. "may not be"? a gloriously understated comment  Well, to be fair I had failed to spot that the Tories came quite close to winning this ward on General Election day 2015, and this was one of those rare constituencies where there was a swing from Lab to Con this June.. Since then the polls have moved from Con to Lab, which would make it very close in Electoral Calculus terms I expect However in pre-UKIP days Labour always held this ward fairly easily and my impression from the doorstep is that many working class Kippers voted only reluctantly for the Tories in June, and are likely to go to either Labour or sit at home in a local by-election... We will see soon enough |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2017 12:42:09 GMT
The second Labour councillor for Stanley who lives three miles away in Horbury. Oh come on, it's a 15 minute car drive away - less if you take the M1 at a non busy time. Horbury and Stanley are hardly quinoa and mushy peas either. I think you know this anyway and may be being a tad partisan. Especially as your own party have para shoots going off all over W Yorkshire. I don't think it makes a load of difference but your lot do unless they are the ones doing it. |
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Post by johnloony on Oct 13, 2017 13:25:46 GMT
ElectoralCalculus has the Tories ahead at the general election in the ward, although those figures may not be reliable. Rule 1: don't mention the E word.... Estimate! Evaporate! Extrapolate! Exterminate! |
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 13, 2017 14:05:19 GMT
Labour GAIN Bolehall (Tamworth) according to the council's Twitter.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 13, 2017 14:07:40 GMT
Labour hold, not gain.
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 13, 2017 14:27:24 GMT
Yes, was just coming back to say they've corrected themselves. |
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Post by justin124 on Oct 13, 2017 14:30:25 GMT
Tamworth - Bolehall
Lab 643
Con 561
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 13, 2017 14:31:39 GMT
Lab 53.4
C 46.6
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timmullen1
Labour
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Post by timmullen1 on Oct 13, 2017 14:32:32 GMT
Thomas Christopher DAY (Conservative) 561
Sheree Dawn PEAPLE (Labour) 643
Turnout 20.76%
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Post by jigger on Oct 13, 2017 14:35:40 GMT
My idea of the perfect election result. 100% of the vote for the Labour and Conservative candidates. |
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Post by froome on Oct 13, 2017 14:46:24 GMT
My idea of the perfect election result. 100% of the vote for the Labour and Conservative candidates. On a turnout of 20%. Probably says a lot. Incidentally that's a pretty dire vote for Labour in what should be a safe ward for them. |
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Post by jigger on Oct 13, 2017 14:53:23 GMT
The Inverurie and District result was certainly a good one for the Conservatives: it confirms that the most recent YouGov poll in Scotland (which had the Conservatives on 20%) is well out of line with current public opinion. I visited Inverurie in August, when I was staying in Monymusk, and it certainly had the look of a Conservative stronghold. To that extent I would have thought it was pretty poor for the Conservatives to get less than 50% of the vote. I will defer to you though as a Scotsman. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 13, 2017 14:55:08 GMT
The Inverurie and District result was certainly a good one for the Conservatives: it confirms that the most recent YouGov poll in Scotland (which had the Conservatives on 20%) is well out of line with current public opinion. On the basis of the Cardonald, Fortissat, Elgin City North, Tain & Easter Ross and Inverurie & District by-election results, I would argue that the Conservatives are currently sitting on around 27-28% of the vote in Scotland, with little change in the vote for the Conservatives and SNP in the Conservative-SNP marginals and a more pronounced decline in the Conservative vote in areas where the Conservatives are not the central challengers to the SNP. Labour is in an even stronger position than the Conservatives: their vote has increased across the board, particularly in wards located within the party's key target constituencies around the Central Belt. I suspect that in the event of a Scottish Parliamentary election both the Conservatives and Labour would do well, as we are currently in a position where the reputation of the UK-wide Conservative Party is severely damaged following the results of the general election and Scottish Labour doesn't even have a leader yet... With focused campaigns based in Scotland, both parties can make gains on 2017 in Scotland. I suspect we are sitting at around: SNP 36% Lab 31% Con 27% LD 6% In a UK general election, Argyll & Bute, Perth & North Perthshire and Stirling would remain tight Conservative-SNP marginals. In a Scottish Parliamentary election, the Conservatives would take around 17 constituency seats. Labour would be looking at more than tripling its number of constituencies around Greater Glasgow, with further gains in Dunfermline & West Fife, Edinburgh North & Leith and the Western Isles. The party are approximately where they were in 2011. The road to wildly wrong General Election predictions is littered with over-interpretation of local by-elections! But yes, my gut-feeling is that we have passed peak-SNP and have not yet reached trough-SNP. Based mainly on the inevitable eventual fall of governing Parties... |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 13, 2017 14:57:03 GMT
"may not be"? a gloriously understated comment Well, to be fair I had failed to spot that the Tories came quite close to winning this ward on General Election day 2015, and this was one of those rare constituencies where there was a swing from Lab to Con this June.. Since then the polls have moved from Con to Lab, which would make it very close in Electoral Calculus terms I expect However in pre-UKIP days Labour always held this ward fairly easily and my impression from the doorstep is that many working class Kippers voted only reluctantly for the Tories in June, and are likely to go to either Labour or sit at home in a local by-election... We will see soon enough FWIW I have done notional results for Staffordshire for 2015 and I had the Tories narrowly ahead in Bolehall then (they were ahead in every ward in Tamworth and this was the only one that was relatively close). As you say there was a small swing to the Tories in 2017 so its likely as not they did carry the ward then too |
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Post by jigger on Oct 13, 2017 15:03:14 GMT
Changes since 2016: Labour: +3.9% Conservatives: +22.2% Swing: +9.2% |
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Post by jigger on Oct 13, 2017 15:06:06 GMT
My idea of the perfect election result. 100% of the vote for the Labour and Conservative candidates. On a turnout of 20%. Probably says a lot. Incidentally that's a pretty dire vote for Labour in what should be a safe ward for them. It is important to never overstate just one by-election but Tamworth has shown a clear trend to the Conservatives over the decades and maybe this is just a continuation of that trend. |
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Post by lbarnes on Oct 13, 2017 16:11:30 GMT
The only candidates in 2016 were Lab Con & UKIP & it's clear that the vast majority of the UKIP vote went Tory, whereas in the south it seems to be going to Labour in a lot of elections (e.g. Thetford last week). Not necessarily. The swings may not have been directly from one party to another. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 13, 2017 16:41:37 GMT
The only candidates in 2016 were Lab Con & UKIP & it's clear that the vast majority of the UKIP vote went Tory, whereas in the south it seems to be going to Labour in a lot of elections (e.g. Thetford last week). Not necessarily. The swings may not have been directly from one party to another. And swings don't necessarily mean any individual changing their vote from Party A to Party B ... |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 13, 2017 17:10:30 GMT
The good burghers of Inverurie have had to go to the polls 8 times since 2014
2014 Independence Referendum
2015 General Election
2016 Scottish Parliament election
2016 EU Referendum
2016 Inverurie by-election
2017 local elections
2017 General Election
2017 Inverurie by-election
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Post by lbarnes on Oct 13, 2017 17:20:28 GMT
Not necessarily. The swings may not have been directly from one party to another. And swings don't necessarily mean any individual changing their vote from Party A to Party B ... True. Especially when there is low turnout. |
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