Local by-elections , October 12th, 2017

[Roger Harmer]

Oct 13, 2017 8:03:23 GMT carlton43 said:

Oct 12, 2017 22:38:36 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Some evidence for my theory that the demise of UKIP is good news for the LDs

Yes.  You have re-inherited the dustbin vote from UKIP, just as they did from you.  Let's face it, this cannot be seen as a positive vote for LD politics and Remain, it is merely a move of the 'I don't like Labour and Conservatives' to a new home. The politics of UKIP and the LDs are so different that the votes have nothing at all to do with policies! 

I'm sure that is true in part, but also suspect there is a two way movement going on of UKIP to Tory and Tory remainers to LD. Impossible to tell from the bald results which factor is more important but I'm sure they are both there. Of course its the nature of the First Past the Post system that, outside the safe seats, most winning vote totals are formed of coalitions of voters of different views, so its good news for us, purely in terms of winning elections, that the LD potential coalition is broadening again.

[matureleft]

Wyre Rossall

Independent 180 (14.8%)
Conservative 427 (35.1%)
Labour 610 (50.1%

[YL]

Oct 13, 2017 7:41:55 GMT @conservativeestimate said:

Oct 13, 2017 6:50:15 GMT YL said:

It's certainly likely to be in Sheffield, where it gives the Lib Dems an opportunity to re-establish themselves as the not-Labour option in the east and north of the city. They were never likely to win Beighton, which wasn't a ward where they'd challenged before, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Lib Dems winning the Ecclesfield and Stocksbridge wards again in the next few years.

... and I think that is a poor result for the Tories. As I said before, this was a ward where they'd actually been not that far behind in the past, coming ahead of the Lib Dems in 2008 when it definitely was the Lib Dems who were the not-Labour option almost everywhere in the city.

I believe the Conservatives would win it if it was in NE Derbyshire.

I'm not convinced by that. I think it has more in common with Eckington and Killamarsh, which still generally vote Labour, than it does with Dronfield. The Tories might be able to win it in a good year for them, but I think it'd usually be Labour.

[The Bishop]

Oct 13, 2017 9:26:48 GMT @benjl said:

How does a change in constituency change how the ward votes in local elections when the local election is not held at the same time as a general election.

(NARRATOR'S VOICE: "it doesn't")

[Deleted]

Oct 13, 2017 9:26:48 GMT @benjl said:

How does a change in constituency change how the ward votes in local elections when the local election is not held at the same time as a general election.

Because NE Derbyshire is LAB vs. CON locally whereas Sheffield is LAB vs LDEM and, in recent elections, UKIP.

There are plenty of wards I think would vote differently if placed in neighbouring LAs.

[eamonn]

I was at the Beighton count as Green agent - we just stood a candidate with local connections. All the other parties did some work, but mainly the Lib Dems who said they "made Labour work". Previous Lib Dem peak here was probably 24% in 2010 but I expect they will see more hard work turning it into a 2 horse race and making winning possible next door to Mosborough. No obvious encouragment for the Tories here as they continue on zero council seats and are close in no wards.

[The Bishop]

Oct 13, 2017 9:31:57 GMT eamonn said:

I was at the Beighton count as Green agent - we just stood a candidate with local connections. All the other parties did some work, but mainly the Lib Dems who said they "made Labour work". Previous Lib Dem peak here was probably 24% in 2010 but I expect they will see more hard work turning it into a 2 horse race and making winning possible next door to Mosborough. No obvious encouragment for the Tories here as they continue on zero council seats and are close in no wards.

Do they have the resources to build on this performance come city-wide elections though?

[iain]

Oct 13, 2017 9:34:53 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 13, 2017 9:31:57 GMT eamonn said:

I was at the Beighton count as Green agent - we just stood a candidate with local connections. All the other parties did some work, but mainly the Lib Dems who said they "made Labour work". Previous Lib Dem peak here was probably 24% in 2010 but I expect they will see more hard work turning it into a 2 horse race and making winning possible next door to Mosborough. No obvious encouragment for the Tories here as they continue on zero council seats and are close in no wards.

Do they have the resources to build on this performance come city-wide elections though?

Possibly. We definitely felt this would have been winnable with a longer campaign, and we have few obvious targets in the city beyond what we currently hold.

[thetop]

Isn't there a fair bit of disquiet with the Sheffield council at present? Makes sense they'd rally around the party best placed to challenge Labour there.

[iain]

Oct 13, 2017 9:44:29 GMT thetop said:

Isn't there a fair bit of disquiet with the Sheffield council at present? Makes sense they'd rally around the only party there able to challenge Labour.

Yes, the Council is run very poorly at the moment. Next year, Labour should have been looking to expand into areas of Hallam where they’ve never won Council seats before, but are far more likely to be playing defence as things stand.

[andrew111]

Oct 13, 2017 9:34:53 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 13, 2017 9:31:57 GMT eamonn said:

I was at the Beighton count as Green agent - we just stood a candidate with local connections. All the other parties did some work, but mainly the Lib Dems who said they "made Labour work". Previous Lib Dem peak here was probably 24% in 2010 but I expect they will see more hard work turning it into a 2 horse race and making winning possible next door to Mosborough. No obvious encouragment for the Tories here as they continue on zero council seats and are close in no wards.

Do they have the resources to build on this performance come city-wide elections though?

Seems unlikely.. Targeting Mosborough in SE Sheffield seems more likely. Who is up there next May?
Depends a lot on how much the Lib Dems need to target the Hallam wards they hold.
When the Lib Dems took control in Sheffield I think they reached some sort of tipping point where the talk in the press etc was all about them taking control from a very unpopular Labour council and unlikely looking wards like Darnall fell without much effort. Looking at the 2016 results I suspect the two Ecclesfield wards will be on the target list, plus the ones where they won councillors, and Mosborough. The Lib Dems do have residual credibility in Sheffield more than in other northern cities which is why they can put the vote up 21% in a ward where nothing has been done for years.. I agree with Conservative estimate that the credibility they get as a realistic opposition to Labour helps that. It is not so much which constituency you are in as which local authority. The other factor that definitely makes a difference though is that wards like Beighton which have been safe for Labour for ever and are also in a safe constituency tend to be neglected compared to any wards in  target constituencies and a sudden surge of Lib Dem leaflets in a by-election can make more difference than it would in NE Derbyshire...

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Aberdeenshire, Inverurie and District is a Conservative hold.

Total number of votes 3,471 (turnout 30.9%) including spoiled ballots.

Lesley Berry (Conservative) polled 1,672.

[iain]

Oct 13, 2017 10:06:48 GMT andrew111 said:

Oct 13, 2017 9:34:53 GMT The Bishop said:

Do they have the resources to build on this performance come city-wide elections though?

Seems unlikely.. Targeting Mosborough in SE Sheffield seems more likely. Who is up there next May?

Gail Smith, the by-election victor. Mosborough will obviously be the priority in May, but that doesn’t mean that Beighton is just abandoned.

[The Bishop]

Oct 13, 2017 10:38:14 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Inverurie and District

Con - 1,672 (48.5%) +12.6
SNP - 1,146 (33.3%) +5.7
LD - 295 (8.6%) -3.2
Lab - 276 (8.0%) +3.7
Grn - 56 (1.6%) new

Con hold

Good result for the Tories there, clearly the absence of an Independent this time round benefited them. Interesting to see the LibDems down and Labour up too.

[Andrew_S]

Sept 30, 2017 14:18:11 GMT yellowperil said:

Tamworth BC Bolehall ward
Labour resigned
2 candidates:
Thomas Christopher Jay ( Con)
Sheree Peaple ( Lab)

2002 election results: Lab 893/846/822, Con 520//508/485
2003 election results: Lab 714, Con 512
2004 election results: Lab 925, Con 711
2006 election results: Lab 1111, Con 701
2007 election results: Lab 990, Con 718
2008 election results: Lab 864, Con 710
2010 election results: Lab 2023, Con 1476
2011 election results: Lab 1205, Con 847
2012 election results: Lab 1047, Con 435
2014 election results: Lab 1162, Con 602
2015 election results: Lab 1440, Con 1315, UKIP 772, Green 182
2016 election results: Lab 818,UKIP 431, Con 404

Probably Labour's safest ward in Tamworth so it'll be interesting to see if they can hold it.

[andrew111]

Oct 13, 2017 11:15:11 GMT Andrew_S said:

Sept 30, 2017 14:18:11 GMT yellowperil said:

Tamworth BC Bolehall ward
Labour resigned
2 candidates:
Thomas Christopher Jay ( Con)
Sheree Peaple ( Lab)

2002 election results: Lab 893/846/822, Con 520//508/485
2003 election results: Lab 714, Con 512
2004 election results: Lab 925, Con 711
2006 election results: Lab 1111, Con 701
2007 election results: Lab 990, Con 718
2008 election results: Lab 864, Con 710
2010 election results: Lab 2023, Con 1476
2011 election results: Lab 1205, Con 847
2012 election results: Lab 1047, Con 435
2014 election results: Lab 1162, Con 602
2015 election results: Lab 1440, Con 1315, UKIP 772, Green 182
2016 election results: Lab 818,UKIP 431, Con 404

Probably Labour's safest ward in Tamworth so it'll be interesting to see if they can hold it.

It would certainly be a bit stunning if they didn't!

[Andrew_S]

Oct 13, 2017 11:23:13 GMT andrew111 said:

Oct 13, 2017 11:15:11 GMT Andrew_S said:

Probably Labour's safest ward in Tamworth so it'll be interesting to see if they can hold it.

It would certainly be a bit stunning if they didn't!

ElectoralCalculus has the Tories ahead at the general election in the ward, although those figures may not be reliable.

[yellowperil]

Oct 13, 2017 11:27:35 GMT Andrew_S said:

Oct 13, 2017 11:23:13 GMT andrew111 said:

It would certainly be a bit stunning if they didn't!

ElectoralCalculus has the Tories ahead at the general election in the ward, although those figures may not be reliable.

"may not be"?  a gloriously understated comment

[Deleted]

Oct 13, 2017 10:38:14 GMT ntyuk1707 said:

Inverurie and District

Con - 1,672 (48.5%) +12.6
SNP - 1,146 (33.3%) +5.7
LD - 295 (8.6%) -3.2
Lab - 276 (8.0%) +3.7
Grn - 56 (1.6%) new

Con hold

Solid Tory win.

[Andrew_S]

Oct 13, 2017 11:39:05 GMT yellowperil said:

Oct 13, 2017 11:27:35 GMT Andrew_S said:

ElectoralCalculus has the Tories ahead at the general election in the ward, although those figures may not be reliable.

"may not be"?  a gloriously understated comment

I don't think their estimates are all that bad in most constituencies.