Sibboleth
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 13, 2017 18:26:55 GMT
Tamworth isn't in the North.
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 13, 2017 18:30:05 GMT
Anyway, to the extent that this is a tendency (and let's not overstate that) it mostly reflects the fact that it was in provincial southern towns that Labour bled proportionately more votes to UKIP than anywhere else (completely contrary to media/polisci discourse of course, but there's nothing unusual in that disagreeing with reality) though often as part of a two-step with the LibDems. Thetford, for instance, is a very strong Labour town historically.
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 13, 2017 19:59:34 GMT
Inverurie and District Con - 1,672 (48.5%) +12.6 SNP - 1,146 (33.3%) +5.7 LD - 295 (8.6%) -3.2 Lab - 276 (8.0%) +3.7 Grn - 56 (1.6%) new Con hold Given the wealth of information about preferences available, its possible to work out a result from this May with the second preferences of the indy reallocated. It would have been Con 44.1% SNP 33.3% LD 16.7% Lab 5.9% which would make the changes this time Con +4.4% SNP NC LD - 8.1% Lab +3.1% Grn (new) which is possibly a more accurate picture. Still a decent result for the Conservatives and encouraging for Labour, but not good at all for the LDs |
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Post by Andrew_S on Oct 13, 2017 21:21:35 GMT
On a turnout of 20%. Probably says a lot. Incidentally that's a pretty dire vote for Labour in what should be a safe ward for them. It is important to never overstate just one by-election but Tamworth has shown a clear trend to the Conservatives over the decades and maybe this is just a continuation of that trend. Looking at the results I don't see much of a trend in favour of the Tories until 2010. They were very disappointed not to win the seat in 2005 IIRC. |
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Post by jigger on Oct 13, 2017 21:29:34 GMT
It is important to never overstate just one by-election but Tamworth has shown a clear trend to the Conservatives over the decades and maybe this is just a continuation of that trend. Looking at the results I don't see much of a trend in favour of the Tories until 2010. They were very disappointed not to win the seat in 2005 IIRC. Well, it's complicated by boundary changes in 1997, but at every election since then, Tamworth has swung to the Tories by greater than the national average. You are, of course, correct that the swings have been much better for the Tories in recent years than before but the trend has still been there. |
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jack
Non-Aligned
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Post by jack on Oct 13, 2017 21:40:50 GMT
Sibboleth. Tamworth and Thetford are similar in that they are both Labour "overspill" towns. Tamworth from Birmingham while Thetford was from London. Neither are traditional provincial towns. Both have a low proportion of British minority ethnic voters and both have high levels of EU migrant workers.
Then they diverge. Thetford has migrants from Portugal for agriculture going back years while large overspill employers all closed down - Thermos flasks, the Danepak bacon factory, Sultans Turkish Delight,etc few remain. Thetford has had both LDs and UKIP elected. It is down at heal. In Tamworth more, smaller, overspill firm have had success and been joined by masses of warehouses staffed by Polish & Baltic States workers. An easy commute to Birmingham, by rail. No LDs or UKIP ever elected or near. Boom town.
Neither is representative of the area which surrounds them.
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Post by AdminSTB on Oct 13, 2017 21:50:45 GMT
Sibboleth. Tamworth and Thetford are similar in that they are both Labour "overspill" towns. Tamworth from Birmingham while Thetford was from London. Neither are traditional provincial towns. Both have a low proportion of British minority ethnic voters and both have high levels of EU migrant workers. Then they diverge. Thetford has migrants from Portugal for agriculture going back years while large overspill employers all closed down - Thermos flasks, the Danepak bacon factory, Sultans Turkish Delight,etc few remain. Thetford has had both LDs and UKIP elected. It is down at heal. In Tamworth more, smaller, overspill firm have had success and been joined by masses of warehouses staffed by Polish & Baltic States workers. An easy commute to Birmingham, by rail. No LDs or UKIP ever elected or near. Boom town. Neither is representative of the area which surrounds them. Tamworth has elected Kippers, 2 of them in 2016. |
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 13, 2017 22:20:14 GMT
Aberdeenshire, Inverurie & District - Conservative hold based on first preferences | Party | 2017 B votes | 2017 B share | since 2017 | since 2016 B | since 2012 | since 2007 | Conservative | 1,672 | 48.5% | +12.6% | +9.8% | +31.1% | +33.7% | SNP | 1,146 | 33.3% | +5.7% | -1.4% | -3.9% | +3.8% | Liberal Democrat | 295 | 8.6% | -3.2% | -13.9% | -8.8% | -33.8% | Labour | 276 | 8.0% | +3.7% | +3.9% | -5.2% | -3.0% | Green | 56 | 1.6% | from nowhere | from nowhere | -1.6% | from nowhere | Independents |
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| -20.4% |
| -11.6% | -2.4% | Total votes | 3,445 |
| 72% | 103% | 99% | 67% |
Swing SNP to Conservative 3½% since May, 5½% since 2016 by-election, 17½% since 2012 and, if meaningful, 15% since 2007 Council now 23 Conservative, 21 SNP, 14 Liberal Democrat, 6 Aligned Independent, 4 other Independent, 1 Labour, 1 Green Ashfield, Hucknall North - Ashfield Independent gain from Conservative| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | | Ashfield Independent | 1,329 | 51.1% | +38.4% | +40.3% | Labour | 629 | 24.2% | -6.5% | -5.8% | Conservative | 532 | 20.4% | -10.6% | -10.7% | UKIP | 66 | 2.5% | -15.7% | -17.4% | Liberal Democrat | 46 | 1.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green |
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| -7.4% | -8.1% | Total votes | 2,602 |
| 44% | 49% |
Swing not meaningful Council now 22 Labour, 10 Independent, 3 Conservative Sheffield, Beighton - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 "top" | since 2016 "average" | | Labour | 1,640 | 48.6% | +5.2% | +5.9% | Liberal Democrat | 899 | 26.6% | +21.0% | +21.2% | Conservative | 552 | 16.3% | -0.8% | -1.4% | UKIP | 212 | 6.3% | -19.2% | -20.0% | Green | 74 | 2.2% | -3.1% | -2.6% | TUSC |
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| -3.1% | 3.2% | Total votes | 3,377 |
| 75% | 77% |
Swing, if totally meaningful, Labour to Liberal Democrat ~8% since 2016 Council now 56 Labour, 20 Liberal Democrat, 4 UKIP, 4 Green
Tamworth, Bolehall - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | | Labour | 643 | 53.4% | +3.9% | +14.6% | -12.5% | -17.2% | Conservative | 561 | 46.6% | +22.2% | +11.1% | +12.5% | +17.2% | UKIP |
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| -26.1% | -20.8% |
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| Green |
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| -4.9% |
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| Total votes | 1,204 |
| 73% | 32% | 68% | 81% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 9% since 2016, 12½% since 2014 and 17¼% since 2012 but Conservative to Labour 1¾% since 2015 Council now 20 Conservative, 7 Labour, 3 UKIP
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Post by middleenglander on Oct 13, 2017 22:22:14 GMT
Three Rivers, Oxhey Hall & Hayling - Liberal Democrat gain from Conservative| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 "top" | since 2014 "average" | | Liberal Democrat | 672 | 41.3% | -6.5% | +18.5% | +12.9% | +13.7% | Conservative | 461 | 28.3% | +2.8% | -8.4% | +2.8% | +2.5% | Labour | 428 | 26.3% | +8.8% | +4.4% | +3.0% | +3.2% | UKIP | 35 | 2.2% | -7.0% | -16.4% | -20.6% | -21.3% | Green | 31 | 1.9% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Total votes | 1,627 |
| 84% | 49% | 75% | 80% |
Swing Liberal Democrat to Conservative ~ 4¾% since 2016 but Conservative to Liberal Democrat 13½% since 2015 and 5% / 5½% since 2014 Council now 21 Liberal Democrat, 15 Conservative, 3 Labour Wakefield, Stanley & Outwood - Labour hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Labour | 1,353 | 51.0% | +2.4% | +8.6% | -1.3% | -10.4% | Conservative | 847 | 31.9% | +7.3% | +2.1% | +0.4% | +4.0% | Liberal Democrat | 165 | 6.2% | +2.3% | +0.8% | -1.5% | -4.4% | Yorkshire | 153 | 5.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 136 | 5.1% | -16.4% | -15.7% | from nowhere | from nowhere | TUSC |
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| -1.3% | -1.6% | -8.4% |
| Total votes | 2,654 |
| 69% | 34% | 69% | 76% |
Swing Labour to Conservative 2½% since 2016, ¾% since 2014 and 7¼% since 2012 but Conservative to Labour 3¼% since 2015 Council now 52 Labour, 7 Conservative, 2 Independent, 1 UKIP, 1 Vacant
Warrington, Chapelford & Old Hall - Labour hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2016 "top" | since 23016 "average" | | Labour | 957 | 54.7% | +9.8% | +9.5% | Conservative | 353 | 20.2% | +2.3% | +4.3% | Liberal Democrat | 312 | 17.8% | -3.2% | -1.4% | UKIP | 86 | 4.9% | -5.1% | -7.4% | Green | 43 | 2.5% | -3.7% | -5.1% | Total votes | 1,751 |
| 53% | 65% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 3¾% / 2½% since 2016
Council now 45 Labour, 11 Liberal Democrat, 2 Conservative
Wyre, Rossall - Labour hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 610 | 50.1% | +12.8% | +12.8% | +9.1% | +9.1% | Conservative | 427 | 35.1% | +5.9% | +5.7% | +1.1% | +0.2% | Independent | 180 | 14.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -22.9% | -23.6% | -15.6% | -14.2% | Previous Independents |
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| -10.8% | -9.7% | -9.4% | -9.9% | Total votes | 1,217 |
| 42% | 44% | 59% | 62% |
Swing Conservative to Labour 3½% since 2015 and 4% / 4½% since 2011
Council now 36 Conservative, 13 Labour, 1 Vacant
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Post by andrewp on Oct 14, 2017 8:46:18 GMT
Given that the Conservatives were only 101 short of 50% in Inverurie, I'm surprised that it took until the 4th stage for her to be elected.
Do we have a transfer breakdown?
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 14, 2017 10:17:43 GMT
My idea of the perfect election result. 100% of the vote for the Labour and Conservative candidates.  On a turnout of 20%. Probably says a lot. Incidentally that's a pretty dire vote for Labour in what should be a safe ward for them. Whilst it is generally a lot closer than recent results here, there is actually a small swing *to* Labour since the 2015 election. Which makes more sense if you surmise that this is normally a ward where the Tories don't make that much effort, they have other more important fish to fry locally. But they did put in the work at the GE two years ago, and did so again for this vacancy when they didn't need to divert resources elsewhere. Of course the wider point about this area swinging heavily to the Tories since 2005 is also fully germane. I think Labour will be pleased with any hold in the circumstances. |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 14, 2017 10:20:31 GMT
My idea of the perfect election result. 100% of the vote for the Labour and Conservative candidates. I knew you'd be pleased.  |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2017 11:08:39 GMT
On a turnout of 20%. Probably says a lot. Incidentally that's a pretty dire vote for Labour in what should be a safe ward for them. Whilst it is generally a lot closer than recent results here, there is actually a small swing *to* Labour since the 2015 election. Which makes more sense if you surmise that this is normally a ward where the Tories don't make that much effort, they have other more important fish to fry locally. But they did put in the work at the GE two years ago, and did so again for this vacancy when they didn't need to divert resources elsewhere. Of course the wider point about this area swinging heavily to the Tories since 2005 is also fully germane. I think Labour will be pleased with any hold in the circumstances. Contrast Staffordshire with Birmingham proper. |
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Post by stananson on Oct 14, 2017 17:30:52 GMT
Wyre, Rossall - Labour hold
| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | | Labour | 610 | 50.1% | +12.8% | +12.8% | +9.1% | +9.1% | Conservative | 427 | 35.1% | +5.9% | +5.7% | +1.1% | +0.2% | Independent | 180 | 14.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -22.9% | -23.6% | -15.6% | -14.2% | Previous Independents |
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| -10.8% | -9.7% | -9.4% | -9.9% | Total votes | 1,217 |
| 42% | 44% | 59% | 62% |
The vote-change calculations here assume that the three top independents in 2015 (Hewitt, Harrison, Hanvey) were a group, to which the fourth independent (Smith) did not belong. They are all just described as "independent" in the SOPN. Can anyone shed more light on this? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 14, 2017 18:16:58 GMT
I think this is right - the three Hs were allied with each other on Fleetwood Town Council, while Ray Smith was a TUSC candidate who didn't get his paperwork sorted.
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Post by johnloony on Oct 14, 2017 20:55:41 GMT
Given that the Conservatives were only 101 short of 50% in Inverurie, I'm surprised that it took until the 4th stage for her to be elected. Do we have a transfer breakdown? As far as I know, the full result still hasn't been published yet... but anyway, it probably didn't take until the 4th stage. The wording of the legislation is flawed in that it requires the count to continue until the top candidate has more than the quota (50%), even if it means eliminating and transferring the votes from the second-highest candidate.... and it requires the candidates to be eliminated even if the top candidate has already reached the quota when there are still more than just the top two candidates. In some cases, the returning officer applies common sense and conducts the count properly according to the normal rules of AV, and ignores the details of what the law says. But in this case, I think the council website says that the votes were counted by computer rather than human, so common sense will not have been applied. When we get the full figures, my guess is that in the 3rd round, candidate A will have got more votes than B + C combined, but that the 4th round will be the elimination of C and transfers to A/B anyway. |
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Oct 14, 2017 22:12:51 GMT
Given that the Conservatives were only 101 short of 50% in Inverurie, I'm surprised that it took until the 4th stage for her to be elected. Do we have a transfer breakdown? Its not all that surprising. Stage 2 would have been the Green transfers, if which there were very few to go around and probably only a handful went to the Conservatives. Stage 3 would be Labour transfers - even with strong unionist Labour voters, they're more likely to go the LDs first in much greater numbers than straight to the Tories. So stage 2 and 3 would have been a maximum of around 330 votes of which a proportion wouldn't have transferred and the LDs would probably have attracted more than either of the others, so not that surprising the Conservatives didn't get over a hundred. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 15, 2017 14:08:37 GMT
Whilst it is generally a lot closer than recent results here, there is actually a small swing *to* Labour since the 2015 election. Which makes more sense if you surmise that this is normally a ward where the Tories don't make that much effort, they have other more important fish to fry locally. But they did put in the work at the GE two years ago, and did so again for this vacancy when they didn't need to divert resources elsewhere. Of course the wider point about this area swinging heavily to the Tories since 2005 is also fully germane. I think Labour will be pleased with any hold in the circumstances. Did then the conservatives have a new manifesto for Tamworth? |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 16, 2017 15:48:35 GMT
No. Boo! A good result for jigger , this one. Still, a relatively small shift either way compared to Beighton. Getting over 15% keeps us in the game and UKIP getting less than 5% makes them start to look out of it. Our game is three-party politics [/b], not two-parry or four-party... [/quote] Interesting to hear that from someone living in Stroud! [/quote] Living in Stroud brings the lesson home. No offence to the Stroud Greens. I've said on another thread somewhere that they are the party that it is easiest for us to form a coalition with (IMO) which is important since neither party are going to control the council anytime soon, but that in most wards they won we did not stand whereas in most wards we stood we got more votes than them. Some Green councillors are in wards that are strongly Green, in others I'd fancy our chances if there were no Green candidate. As things stand I don't know if we'd oust the Greens in those wards but best case result would be to leave a potential Green-LD coalition with the same number of councillors but with a balance of power more weighted to the LDs; worst case would be Greens beaten by Tory or Labour on a split "3rd Party" vote. Stroud is a 4-party constituency (having been 5-party when UKIP were going) but there's no doubt three-party politics suits us better. At the last two GEs we had two-party politics in Stroud to detriment of both us and Greens. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 16, 2017 17:40:48 GMT
Whilst it is generally a lot closer than recent results here, there is actually a small swing *to* Labour since the 2015 election. Which makes more sense if you surmise that this is normally a ward where the Tories don't make that much effort, they have other more important fish to fry locally. But they did put in the work at the GE two years ago, and did so again for this vacancy when they didn't need to divert resources elsewhere. Of course the wider point about this area swinging heavily to the Tories since 2005 is also fully germane. I think Labour will be pleased with any hold in the circumstances. Did then the conservatives have a new manifesto for Tamworth? Hopefully of a-peel to the voters. |
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