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Post by middleenglander on Oct 6, 2017 10:33:38 GMT
Redcar & Cleveland, St Germain's - Liberal Democrat hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 "top" | since 2011 "average" | Liberal Democrat | 661 | 38.4% | +8.6% | +9.0% | +5.7% | +5.2% | Labour | 368 | 21.4% | +1.5% | +1.0% | -17.8% | -15.0% | Independent Lambert | 261 | 15.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Independent Jeffries | 225 | 13.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Conservative | 174 | 10.1% | -2.6% | -3.2% | -1.0% | -1.9% | Green | 31 | 1.8% | -9.7% | -9.3% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -16.0% | -16.9% |
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| Previous Independents |
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| -10.0% | -8.8% | -17.0% | -18.3% | Total votes | 1,720 |
| 40% | 42% | 53% | 58% |
Swing Labour to Liberal Democrat 3½% / 4% since 2015 and ~ 12% / 10% since 2011 Council now 28 Labour, 10 Conservative, 10 Liberal Democrat, 6 Independent Group, 2 Independent, 2 Localists, Salford, Claremont - Labour hold | Party | 2017 B2 votes | 2017 B2 share | since 2017 B1 | since 2016 | since 2015 | since 2014 | since 2012 | Labour | 718 | 46.5% | -15.1% | -1.5% | +1.4% | +4.6% | -1.0% | Conservative | 447 | 29.0% | +1.8% | +10.8% | +9.3% | +13.8% | +19.9% | Independent | 171 | 11.1% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | Liberal Democrat | 162 | 10.5% | +4.5% | from nowhere | +4.4% | +5.7% | -14.8% | Green | 46 | 3.0% | -1.4% | -6.1% | -2.9% | -2.6% | from nowhere | Republic |
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| -0.9% |
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| UKIP |
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| -24.7% | -21.7% | -30.8% | -8.5% | TUSC |
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| -1.5% | -1.8% |
| BNP |
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| -7.2% | Christian |
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| -2.5% | Total votes | 1,544 |
| 29% | 57% | 30% | 53% | 56% |
Swing Labour to Conservative ~ 6½% since June by-election, 6% since 2016, 4% since 2015, 4½% since 2014 and 10½% since 2012 Council now 49 Labour, 9 Conservative, 1 Independent, 1 Vacant South Bucks, Burnham Rent Rise & Taplow - Conservative hold Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Conservative | 699 | 65.9% | 23.6% | +27.0% | Labour | 166 | 15.6% | -0.4% | -1.3% | Liberal Democrat | 136 | 12.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 60 | 5.7% | -7.7% | -8.5% | UKIP |
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| -17.9% | -19.0% | Independent |
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| -10.3% | -10.9% | Total votes | 1,061 |
| 22% | 23% |
Swing, if meaningful, Labour to Conservative 12% / 14% since 2015 Council now 26 Conservative, 1 Independent, 1 Vacant Warwick, Stoneleigh & Cubbington - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Conservative | 502 | 52.6% | +13.0% | +12.0% | Labour | 311 | 32.6% | +15.1% | +16.9% | Liberal Democrat | 113 | 11.8% | from nowhere | from nowhere | Green | 29 | -7.9% | -10.3% | -7.9% | Independent |
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| -29.6% | -32.8% | Total votes | 955 |
| 27% | 30% |
Swing, if entirely meaningful, Conservative to Labour 1% / 2½% since 2015 Council now 31 Conservative, 9 Labour, 3 Residents, 2 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 6, 2017 10:40:08 GMT
Interesting to hear the phrase 'the Brighton-Worthing conurbation'. Brighton & Hove is ubiquitous obviously, especially since the two merged administratively in the 90s, but 'Brighton-Worthing' is new to me. I do think that it will become an umbrella term as the demographic drifts and psephological shifts take hold in the Worthing seats. My trusty government "population of urban areas" spreadsheet, based on 2001 census (they didn't unfortunately update for 2011), already shows this as one conurbation. Shoreham is contiguous with Hove, and the gaps between Shoreham and Lancing, and Lancing and Worthing are considered too small to establish separate urban areas. The same thing happens with Southend, where Benfleet, Rayleigh, Hockley, and Rochford are all considered part of the urban area (but not Canvey). Ditto Portsmouth, Fareham etc. How far does the conurbation extend to the East? It's a pretty continuous urban area all the way to Seaford. I wonder how they treat Watford and some of the neighbouring towns which are also pretty well contiguous |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 6, 2017 11:28:29 GMT
Delighted by the Mash Burn result. For no other reason than to it it out there (and a streak of devilment), the ElectoralCalculus guess for Mash Barn in the General Election, with last night's result in brackets: Lab: 45.16% (49.3%) Con: 37.44% (38.6%) UKIP: 7.88% LibD: 7.08% (9.0%) Grn: 1.08% (3.1%) Oth:. 1.36% Electoral Calculus getting it right for once! How does this by-election result prove that the figures they gave for the general election were correct? Did the byelection result in Worthing Marine a few weeks ago suggest that Labour also carried that ward in the general election? |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 6, 2017 11:55:51 GMT
My trusty government "population of urban areas" spreadsheet, based on 2001 census (they didn't unfortunately update for 2011), already shows this as one conurbation. Shoreham is contiguous with Hove, and the gaps between Shoreham and Lancing, and Lancing and Worthing are considered too small to establish separate urban areas. The same thing happens with Southend, where Benfleet, Rayleigh, Hockley, and Rochford are all considered part of the urban area (but not Canvey). Ditto Portsmouth, Fareham etc. How far does the conurbation extend to the East? It's a pretty continuous urban area all the way to Seaford. I wonder how they treat Watford and some of the neighbouring towns which are also pretty well contiguous There's a sizable gap between Peacehaven & Newhaven. And the spreadsheet lists Peacehaven separately as there is a (smaller) gap between Saltdean and Telscombe Cliffs. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 6, 2017 11:58:00 GMT
Did you leave out the Green on purpose?  It is an uncharitable view that I would make a mistake on purpose!! Posting at a quarter to two in the morning is the prime reason. Now corrected. Given the size of the Green vote, the charitable view was that you left them out to spare their blushes |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 6, 2017 12:01:33 GMT
How far does the conurbation extend to the East? It's a pretty continuous urban area all the way to Seaford. I wonder how they treat Watford and some of the neighbouring towns which are also pretty well contiguous There's a sizable gap between Peacehaven & Newhaven. And the spreadsheet lists Peacehaven separately as there is a (smaller) gap between Saltdean and Telscombe Cliffs. It all sounds very arbitrary. There is only a small gap between Peacehaven and Newhaven, the same as between Shoreham and Lancing or between Lancing and Worthing. For that matter the gap between Rottingdean and the main built up area of Brighton is larger than any of these |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 6, 2017 12:03:14 GMT
CHESHIRE EAST Crewe East Joy Bratherton (Lab) 1,174 Mary Elizabeth Addison (C) 542 Eddie Ankers (UKIP) 158 Melanie Ruth English (GP) 59 Joy Bratherton was the Crewe and Nantwich conference delegate who moved and agreed to remit the 5% proposal for leadership nominations by MPS. Stated in her election address that she voted for Corbyn twice. She did. Interesting character. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 6, 2017 12:04:40 GMT
Not only that I passed an entrance exam for it when I was at primary school - though didn't pursue it any further. I owe you an apology Mike. I inaccurately slandered you by altering your username to Buckinghamshiremike. I do accept that it is actually BerkshireMike and apologise profusely EtonMike has a certain ring to it. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 6, 2017 12:08:23 GMT
Went to the Blue Coat school. Well that rather ruins the story... 😅 I did wonder if it was the Earl of Derby's son. He lives in Knowsley. Hall. |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 6, 2017 12:16:11 GMT
There's a sizable gap between Peacehaven & Newhaven. And the spreadsheet lists Peacehaven separately as there is a (smaller) gap between Saltdean and Telscombe Cliffs. It all sounds very arbitrary. There is only a small gap between Peacehaven and Newhaven, the same as between Shoreham and Lancing or between Lancing and Worthing. For that matter the gap between Rottingdean and the main built up area of Brighton is larger than any of these Yes it appears so to me as well, but there are rules, even if I haven't got a copy of them. The difficulty as I understand it arises from ribbon development (viz the Southend example, where there is ribbon development along the roads joining the settlements, even if just 1 house wide in places). The gaps to the east of Brighton are caused by the Downs coming right to the cliff edge, and there is no ribbon development in these stretches. I used to live in Telscombe Cliffs, and there is a sizable gap as you say between Kemptown & Rottingdean/Saltdean, as well as the two I mention. I assume however that the development along the road from Rottingdean to Woodingdean, and the road from Woodingdean to Whitehawk, have led to the Rottingdean/Saltdean area being included in the Brighton conurbation. (Yes I know the racecourse is in the way, but I've no idea how the government geographers classify racecourses). |
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Post by jigger on Oct 6, 2017 12:27:59 GMT
Well that rather ruins the story... 😅 There are no sixth forms in Knowsley. Indeed, the last one closed last year due to falling demand. No surprise really as Knowsley (wonderful borough though it is) has consistently had the lowest GCSE and A-level results of any local authority in the whole of England. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2017 12:42:36 GMT
There are no sixth forms in Knowsley. Indeed, the last one closed last year due to falling demand. No surprise really as Knowsley (wonderful borough though it is) has consistently had the lowest GCSE and A-level results of any local authority in the whole of England. I believe Oxford has accepted only 3 people from the borough in the last 15 years. Contrast this to Wimbledon, Richmond Park and Putney . It seems every other person I meet comes from one of those three constituencies! |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2017 12:44:32 GMT
Do you you know anyone from Gumley School
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2017 12:52:45 GMT
I owe you an apology Mike. I inaccurately slandered you by altering your username to Buckinghamshiremike. I do accept that it is actually BerkshireMike and apologise profusely EtonMike has a certain ring to it. EtonJulian surely |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2017 13:06:16 GMT
Indeed, the last one closed last year due to falling demand. No surprise really as Knowsley (wonderful borough though it is) has consistently had the lowest GCSE and A-level results of any local authority in the whole of England. I believe Oxford has accepted only 3 people from the borough in the last 15 years. Contrast this to Wimbledon, Richmond Park and Putney . It seems every other person I meet comes from one of those three constituencies! My mother is from Knowsley - 2nd generation opportunity perhaps. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 6, 2017 13:20:06 GMT
'I believe Oxford has accepted only 3 people from the borough in the last 15 years.'
I guess just the way you phrased it, but it makes it sound as if there will have been a lot of people applying from Knowsley and being 'rejected'.
Shades of the really pernicious implication (I remember a case involving Gordon Brown) that there is some kind of prejudice against candidates from working class areas and backgrounds.
I have been an entrance examiner and interviewer at three different Oxford colleges. There was never a doubt that they would prefer the potential of someone with a less privileged education to a well prepared smooth product of one of the schools that habitually entered dozens per cohort.
And that was back in the 1970s and 1980s, long before the scrutiny of entrance statistics for class and ethnicity.
The main problem has been getting people to apply - and the calumnies spread by Brown and others precisely reinforced the feeling that it was not worth even giving it a go.
When I pointed this out to her, my own younger sister applied to Oxford, despite her school saying she shouldn't - and got in for one of the most in-demand subjects.
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Oct 6, 2017 13:35:57 GMT
EtonMike has a certain ring to it. EtonJulian surely And his pal EtonSandy (for those who remember Round the Horne.) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 6, 2017 13:57:50 GMT
I believe Oxford has accepted only 3 people from the borough in the last 15 years. Contrast this to Wimbledon, Richmond Park and Putney . It seems every other person I meet comes from one of those three constituencies! My mother is from Knowsley - 2nd generation opportunity perhaps. Members of the Stanley family don't count |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
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Post by Sibboleth on Oct 6, 2017 14:04:40 GMT
Class is bad and wrong.
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 6, 2017 14:11:59 GMT
I see no-one wants to discuss the Lib Dem triumph in Redcar!
Or the fact that Labour and Tory combined only got 31.5% of the votes there... Presumably we can conclude that the 2 Party system that was triumphant at 11 pm Thursday night was dead by Friday morning.
Or alternatively that local by-elections are fought on local issues.... (but the Lib Dems are not yet dead in local government)
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