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Post by greenchristian on Oct 6, 2017 14:16:39 GMT
While we're waiting for St Germains, here are some interesting tweets from someone who appears to be a local Conservative supporter. The "amazing member of the local community" mentioned in that tweet wouldn't happen to be Jade Smith, would it?  It is an uncharitable view that I would make a mistake on purpose!! Posting at a quarter to two in the morning is the prime reason. Now corrected. Given the size of the Green vote, the charitable view was that you left them out to spare their blushes The omission was in the new composition of the council, not the reporting of the by-election result. So I'm not sure how that makes sense. |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 6, 2017 14:29:50 GMT
And his pal EtonSandy (for those who remember Round the Horne.) My cats are called Julian and Sandy. Amusing to note whether people get it or not....usually they make a comment about bona cats.... |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2017 14:30:26 GMT
No mate sorry no one really wants to talk about a straightforward lib dem hold.
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albion
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Post by albion on Oct 6, 2017 14:51:32 GMT
And his pal EtonSandy (for those who remember Round the Horne.) My cats are called Julian and Sandy. Amusing to note whether people get it or not....usually they make a comment about bona cats.... Surely that is animal cruelty, calling a female tabby Julian? Although calling our young female tabby 'Stinkerbelle' probably falls foul as well. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 6, 2017 14:52:53 GMT
No mate sorry no one really wants to talk about a straightforward lib dem hold. ah yes, but we ALL want to talk about Gumley School! |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 6, 2017 14:54:35 GMT
My cats are called Julian and Sandy. Amusing to note whether people get it or not....usually they make a comment about bona cats.... Surely that is animal cruelty, calling a female tabby Julian? Although calling our young female tabby 'Stinkerbelle' probably falls foul as well. ?? They are both white boys! |
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Post by albion on Oct 6, 2017 14:59:40 GMT
Surely that is animal cruelty, calling a female tabby Julian? Although calling our young female tabby 'Stinkerbelle' probably falls foul as well. ?? They are both white boys! My mistake. I suspect you would not get on with Stinkerbelle as she is a trenchant critic of George Orwell. She operates on a strict principle of 'two legs good, four legs bad'. |
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 6, 2017 15:09:48 GMT
?? They are both white boys! My mistake. I suspect you would not get on with Stinkerbelle as she is a trenchant critic of George Orwell. She operates on a strict principle of 'two legs good, four legs bad'. I am a crazy cat man. I'm sure I'd love her |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2017 15:34:59 GMT
Aha lol fair point i only asked because my friends went there and he might have known them if alot of oxbridge students come from Richmond and Wimbledon
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2017 15:38:59 GMT
'I believe Oxford has accepted only 3 people from the borough in the last 15 years.' I guess just the way you phrased it, but it makes it sound as if there will have been a lot of people applying from Knowsley and being 'rejected'. Shades of the really pernicious implication (I remember a case involving Gordon Brown) that there is some kind of prejudice against candidates from working class areas and backgrounds. I have been an entrance examiner and interviewer at three different Oxford colleges. There was never a doubt that they would prefer the potential of someone with a less privileged education to a well prepared smooth product of one of the schools that habitually entered dozens per cohort. And that was back in the 1970s and 1980s, long before the scrutiny of entrance statistics for class and ethnicity. The main problem has been getting people to apply - and the calumnies spread by Brown and others precisely reinforced the feeling that it was not worth even giving it a go. When I pointed this out to her, my own younger sister applied to Oxford, despite her school saying she shouldn't - and got in for one of the most in-demand subjects. No I didn't mean to imply that. The university can only accept people who apply. I was just convinced it was Oxbridge or bust and applied for that reason. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 6, 2017 15:45:27 GMT
The omission was in the new composition of the council, not the reporting of the by-election result. So I'm not sure how that makes sense. Apologies then, I clearly did misunderstand the point. May I say though, that I am concerned how badly Greens seem to be doing at present- I think theirs is a voice that needs to be heard loud and strong at present and I strongly believe in a wide range of representation at local level ( I stand on this at exactly the other end of the spectrum to Jigger). Okay I know some candidates are paper and you should not attack parties for putting up paper candidates at times (or so I believe). I know the Green Party has never had that great a record in local by-elections and perform much better in full elections. But even allowing for those things the Greens are failing to meet expectations at present. It would I think be a great pity if they got subsumed into Corbynite Labour as they should stand for something distinctive from that. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 6, 2017 15:46:51 GMT
My mistake. I suspect you would not get on with Stinkerbelle as she is a trenchant critic of George Orwell. She operates on a strict principle of 'two legs good, four legs bad'. I am a crazy cat man. Is there any other sort?  |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2017 15:49:31 GMT
Will be interesting to see if Labour can gain East Worthing & Shoreham in 2022 - they certainly have the activist base in the Brighton-Worthing conurbation.
Adur could at some point be a ‘shock’ Labour gain like Hove in 1995.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 6, 2017 16:03:24 GMT
Before jigger gets too excited the aggregate votes per party were: Labour (fought 8/8) 34.7% Conservatives (8/8) 34.5% Lib Dems (7/8) 18.5% Indies (5 candidates in 4 seats/8) 7.1% UKIP (3/8) 2.9% Green (6/8) 2.3% 69.2% for the two main parties. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 6, 2017 16:12:22 GMT
Back to the most interesting of these 8 by-elections which was obviously St Germains. Did anyone learn anything about the two Indies, Lambert and Jeffries. I had drawn a blank on them, and so I assume had Andrew in his Previews where he simply reported the two inependent candidates helping to make up the numbers on the ballot paper. On the other hand some of our contestants on the prediction thread had expected strongish support for one or other. In the end one finished second and the other fourth, and presumably took votes away from Labour and/or the Tories, and reduced their challenge (or of course did they take potential further Lib Dem votes, maybe less likely given the outcome did Lib Dems win because they were better organised to resistthe Indy onslaught?). Did they have similar platforms, because if so and had only one of them stood could they have pulled of a win?
Does anyone have their ear to the local Redcar scene?
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 6, 2017 16:30:11 GMT
Back to the most interesting of these 8 by-elections which was obviously St Germains. Did anyone learn anything about the two Indies, Lambert and Jeffries. I had drawn a blank on them, and so I assume had Andrew in his Previews where he simply reported the two inependent candidates helping to make up the numbers on the ballot paper. On the other hand some of our contestants on the prediction thread had expected strongish support for one or other. In the end one finished second and the other fourth, and presumably took votes away from Labour and/or the Tories, and reduced their challenge (or of course did they take potential further Lib Dem votes, maybe less likely given the outcome did Lib Dems win because they were better organised to resistthe Indy onslaught?). Did they have similar platforms, because if so and had only one of them stood could they have pulled of a win? Does anyone have their ear to the local Redcar scene? I would like to know what is "evil" about the Redcar Lib Dems. (I know Lib Dems can be annoying to the other Parties, especially if they manage to win, thus offending the Natural Order of Things, but putting the Mark of the Beast on them seems a little extreme!) |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 6, 2017 17:41:57 GMT
Jeffries is a former Labour councillor who got a decent vote as an Independent in 2015 (having apparently been dropped by the party), though in the neighbouring Longbeck ward. He does live in the town of Marske (site of St Germains ward), though.
Lambert is or was the chairman of the Saltburn and Marske Planning Committee, which I think may not be an official organisation but a housing pressure group. He got 599 votes in Saltburn in 2015, and lives in Saltburn too, which is the next town down the coast from Marske.
This I learned from googling the candidates' names and consulting my copy of Rallings & Thrasher, though I believe local election results are fairly easily available on the net.
I therefore thought both might get up to 8 - 10%, which was an underestimate, but not a crippling one (from the prediction point of view!)
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Oct 6, 2017 18:01:50 GMT
Jeffries is a former Labour councillor who got a decent vote as an Independent in 2015 (having apparently been dropped by the party), though in the neighbouring Longbeck ward. He does live in the town of Marske (site of St Germains ward), though. A dozen of councillors went Independent after being considered "unsuitable for reselection" due to not being enough faithful to Tom Blekinsop, former cult leader MP. |
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Khunanup
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Post by Khunanup on Oct 6, 2017 18:10:16 GMT
Electoral Calculus getting it right for once! How does this by-election result prove that the figures they gave for the general election were correct? Did the byelection result in Worthing Marine a few weeks ago suggest that Labour also carried that ward in the general election? This is what the urban area is now and in '01 Pete. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighton_and_Hove_built-up_areaI completely agree with the eastern boundary which is one of the reasons I seriously dislike any eastern Brighton & 'Seahaven' (ugh!) seat unless it's connected via Lewes (which where all but the most local transport connections going west go via). Indeed Seaford is far more an outer suburb of Eastbourne than it is of Lewes let alone Brighton but it's a twin town, though very differing, with Newhaven so connected to Lewes via that (and as I mentioned, the transport links). The Downs really does create a psychological as well as physical barrier in that part of East Sussex. |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 6, 2017 18:42:00 GMT
How does this by-election result prove that the figures they gave for the general election were correct? Did the byelection result in Worthing Marine a few weeks ago suggest that Labour also carried that ward in the general election? This is what the urban area is now and in '01 Pete. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brighton_and_Hove_built-up_areaI completely agree with the eastern boundary which is one of the reasons I seriously dislike any eastern Brighton & 'Seahaven' (ugh!) seat unless it's connected via Lewes (which where all but the most local transport connections going west go via). Indeed Seaford is far more an outer suburb of Eastbourne than it is of Lewes let alone Brighton but it's a twin town, though very differing, with Newhaven so connected to Lewes via that (and as I mentioned, the transport links). The Downs really does create a psychological as well as physical barrier in that part of East Sussex. Fantastic. I wouldn't have thought to use Wikipedia for this. Although sadly no spreadsheet, but I might try NOMIS again. This even supports Pete's point, as Rottingdean/Saltdean/Woodingdean has been removed from the Greater Brighton urban area. |
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