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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 6, 2017 18:46:09 GMT
And his pal EtonSandy (for those who remember Round the Horne.) Bold! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2017 18:52:16 GMT
And his pal EtonSandy (for those who remember Round the Horne.) Bold! Or Eton Rifles (for those who remember The Jam and Paul Weller) |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 6, 2017 18:52:37 GMT
Will be interesting to see if Labour can gain East Worthing & Shoreham in 2022 - they certainly have the activist base in the Brighton-Worthing conurbation. Adur could at some point be a ‘shock’ Labour gain like Hove in 1995. East Worthing and Shoreham has now had so much hype it can hardly be a shock result any more unless the shock is that Labour somehow manage to foul it up. There is a certain danger in raising expectations too high. The trick is to get people to believe it can be done without persuading them its a done deal. Lib Dems used to be very good at getting that balance right, and Labour has certainly managed it in some places- notably Canterbury this time. But overdo it and you get complacent. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 6, 2017 19:23:47 GMT
And his pal EtonSandy (for those who remember Round the Horne.) Bold! Eton Mess is quite tasty, apparently... |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 6, 2017 19:31:54 GMT
Will be interesting to see if Labour can gain East Worthing & Shoreham in 2022 - they certainly have the activist base in the Brighton-Worthing conurbation. Adur could at some point be a ‘shock’ Labour gain like Hove in 1995. East Worthing and Shoreham has now had so much hype it can hardly be a shock result any more unless the shock is that Labour somehow manage to foul it up. There is a certain danger in raising expectations too high. The trick is to get people to believe it can be done without persuading them its a done deal. Lib Dems used to be very good at getting that balance right, and Labour has certainly managed it in some places- notably Canterbury this time. But overdo it and you get complacent. Well, Labour have successfully rearranged the opposition votes about as much as they can, so to win the seat they will have to reduce the Tory vote below 48% where it has been for the last 3 elections... I think EWS will go Labour if the national swing predicts it... |
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Post by greenchristian on Oct 6, 2017 22:24:44 GMT
The omission was in the new composition of the council, not the reporting of the by-election result. So I'm not sure how that makes sense. Apologies then, I clearly did misunderstand the point. May I say though, that I am concerned how badly Greens seem to be doing at present- I think theirs is a voice that needs to be heard loud and strong at present and I strongly believe in a wide range of representation at local level ( I stand on this at exactly the other end of the spectrum to Jigger). Okay I know some candidates are paper and you should not attack parties for putting up paper candidates at times (or so I believe). I know the Green Party has never had that great a record in local by-elections and perform much better in full elections. But even allowing for those things the Greens are failing to meet expectations at present. It would I think be a great pity if they got subsumed into Corbynite Labour as they should stand for something distinctive from that. In recent weeks we've gained two seats in by-elections, and were two votes short of gaining another one. That's well above our historical average. Yes, our vote is well down in the vast majority of by-elections where we're standing paper candidates, but I'm not particularly worried by that. |
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
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Post by john07 on Oct 6, 2017 23:24:16 GMT
And his pal EtonSandy (for those who remember Round the Horne.) My cats are called Julian and Sandy. Amusing to note whether people get it or not....usually they make a comment about bona cats.... Do they speak Polari? Or maybe Purrali? |
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Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 7, 2017 8:38:11 GMT
Apologies then, I clearly did misunderstand the point. May I say though, that I am concerned how badly Greens seem to be doing at present- I think theirs is a voice that needs to be heard loud and strong at present and I strongly believe in a wide range of representation at local level ( I stand on this at exactly the other end of the spectrum to Jigger). Okay I know some candidates are paper and you should not attack parties for putting up paper candidates at times (or so I believe). I know the Green Party has never had that great a record in local by-elections and perform much better in full elections. But even allowing for those things the Greens are failing to meet expectations at present. It would I think be a great pity if they got subsumed into Corbynite Labour as they should stand for something distinctive from that. In recent weeks we've gained two seats in by-elections, and were two votes short of gaining another one. That's well above our historical average. Yes, our vote is well down in the vast majority of by-elections where we're standing paper candidates, but I'm not particularly worried by that. FWIW my experience (living in an area with significant Green support) is that almost the whole Green vote went for Labour at the GE but that it was a conscious "loaning" of tactical votes and quite likely to return Green in any election where they think they have a chance, or possibly even if not if there is not an overwhelming reason to keep out someone else. I know for a fact that we benefited from Green votes in a recent Town by-election and that was (deliberately) to the detriment of a Momentumite Labour candidate. If I were Green I would worry a bit about paper candidates and still more about no candidate at all. In these thin times for 3rd and 4th parties I'm heartened that we seem to be at least putting up candidates where previously we had none and it is much better yet to have "good third places" than paper candidates. I understand and agree with the need to target resources - better to have six good candidates than to fail to adequately support them due to busting a gut to put up 20 reluctant ones - but disappearing altogether from the public eye becomes a downward cycle. Another issue is that someone else can get into pole position while you look away. I was looking at Stroud District Council results for current councillors and noted that in most cases where the Greens won (far more than we did) there was no LD but where we did put up candidates we nearly always finished ahead of the Greens. Some of that will be due to good targeting by both parties but I can't help feeling we are chasing a lot of the same voters and now it will be hard for us to win in wards already held by the Greens. Even if we did we would be reducing the representation of a natural coalition partner and quite possibly the ward would instead be won by either Conservative or Labour (locally very Corbynite) both of which are harder for us to work with. That reduces our future options considerably, but too late now. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 7, 2017 9:45:07 GMT
Another (minor) thing to remember about the Green vote is that when comparing percentages with the 2015 local elections (still the most recent in many areas outside metropolitan areas) they tended to put up just one candidate in multi-member wards. This does lead to voters splitting their (say) three choices, giving one to the Green 'as they sound like a vaguely good idea'; but it inflates the percentage per candidate.
I always take this into account when making my predictions for local byelections - roughly dividing the Green share by three seems usually to work quite well.
Incidentally, it is this kind of vote splitting that leads to the 'alphabetical order of candidates' among party 'slates' in multi-member wards, as except in places where candidates are well known, voters tend to omit the bottom candidate on the paper. Only once have I ever stood for election to a council, in a losing slate, and had to listen to one of my running mates, a 'G' (and a lawyer), proudly mention that he had the largest personal vote among us.
Not proven, I felt.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,952
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Post by The Bishop on Oct 7, 2017 9:53:06 GMT
I see no-one wants to discuss the Lib Dem triumph in Redcar! Or the fact that Labour and Tory combined only got 31.5% of the votes there... Presumably we can conclude that the 2 Party system that was triumphant at 11 pm Thursday night was dead by Friday morning. Or alternatively that local by-elections are fought on local issues.... (but the Lib Dems are not yet dead in local government) LibDems have a decent record in R&C byelections (of which there have been a few) going back for some time now. This is all the more interesting given their stark decline at Westminster level here since their 2010 high point. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 7, 2017 12:45:27 GMT
LibDems have a decent record in R&C byelections (of which there have been a few) going back for some time now. This is all the more interesting given their stark decline at Westminster level here since their 2010 high point. I have no claim to understand local politics in R&C but do I detect a certain unhappiness within both Labour and Tory parties locally which may be assisting the Lib Dems to hang on in there at least at local government level. Does that in part explain the substantial Indy votes? |
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thetop
Labour
[k4r]
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Post by thetop on Oct 7, 2017 14:33:18 GMT
Jeffries is a former Labour councillor who got a decent vote as an Independent in 2015 (having apparently been dropped by the party), though in the neighbouring Longbeck ward. He does live in the town of Marske (site of St Germains ward), though. A dozen of councillors went Independent after being considered "unsuitable for reselection" due to not being enough faithful to Tom Blekinsop, former cult leader MP. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 7, 2017 14:52:08 GMT
Clearly then Jeffries was in effect an "Alternative Labour" candidate and from the twitter stuff that was circulating here, there was at least some similar unhappiness in Tory ranks about their candidate too. Is there any sense that Lambert was an "alternative Tory" candidate, does any one know?
I f you add Jeffries vote to Labour, the Lib Dems still win. You would need to add both Indy candidates to Labour to get a Labour win, but I'm dubious that would then be a fair reflection of the mood of the ward
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Post by Merseymike on Oct 7, 2017 18:58:11 GMT
It doesn't appear to be a particularly Labour orientated ward. The LibDems appear quite well dug in.
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 7, 2017 19:44:21 GMT
Well yes Mike of course I agree- but if Labour have an official candidate and an independent candidate who is a former Labour councillor who had been deselected, fighting each other, and their combined vote is still behind the Lib Dem but not by much, then I cannot but think the Lib Dem defence has been a whole lot easier than it might have been.For which we are very grateful.
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