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Post by jigger on Oct 1, 2017 10:59:55 GMT
Can't disagree with any of that. What I was trying to suggest is that a lot of well to do metropolitan guardian reading liberal types had migrated over to Worthing from Brighton. Not many of them settling in Mash Barn which as we have clearly seen was fertile kipper territory until recently. For what it's worth I think Labour probably will take it, on the assumption that the ward will be flooded with momentum activists from Brighton... I knew something was afoot in EW&S back in May/June when there were probably five times the number of Labour posters than at the 2015 election. Whether Mash Barn will reflect the general constituency trend I'm not certain. Though Adur voted by a higher margin than the English average for Brexit whereas Worthing voted by a lower margin than average for Brexit. Similarly, in 2015 Labour increased their vote share by more than the English average in Worthing West and by less than the average in East Worthing and Shoreham. Also, Labour did very well in Worthing in the County Council elections in May, but substantially less well in Adur. Before June 8, was there any evidence from elections to suggest that Labour could get almost 21,000 votes in East Worthing and Shoreham? From where I'm sitting, Labour's massive rise really did seem to come out of the blue in that regard. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2017 11:05:27 GMT
Can't disagree with any of that. What I was trying to suggest is that a lot of well to do metropolitan guardian reading liberal types had migrated over to Worthing from Brighton. Not many of them settling in Mash Barn which as we have clearly seen was fertile kipper territory until recently. For what it's worth I think Labour probably will take it, on the assumption that the ward will be flooded with momentum activists from Brighton... I knew something was afoot in EW&S back in May/June when there were probably five times the number of Labour posters than at the 2015 election. Whether Mash Barn will reflect the general constituency trend I'm not certain. Though Adur voted by a higher margin than the English average for Brexit whereas Worthing voted by a lower margin than average for Brexit. Similarly, in 2015 Labour increased their vote share by more than the English average in Worthing West and by less than the average in East Worthing and Shoreham. Also, Labour did very well in Worthing in the County Council elections in May, but substantially less well in Adur. Before June 8, was there any evidence from elections to suggest that Labour could get almost 21,000 votes in East Worthing and Shoreham? From where I'm sitting, Labour's massive rise really did seem to come out of the blue in that regard. The 500% increase in house prices in Brighton since 1995 is driving demographic change here I think. www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3499216/House-prices-Brighton-jumped-500-1995.html |
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Post by jigger on Oct 1, 2017 11:19:41 GMT
Though Adur voted by a higher margin than the English average for Brexit whereas Worthing voted by a lower margin than average for Brexit. Similarly, in 2015 Labour increased their vote share by more than the English average in Worthing West and by less than the average in East Worthing and Shoreham. Also, Labour did very well in Worthing in the County Council elections in May, but substantially less well in Adur. Before June 8, was there any evidence from elections to suggest that Labour could get almost 21,000 votes in East Worthing and Shoreham? From where I'm sitting, Labour's massive rise really did seem to come out of the blue in that regard. The 500% increase in house prices in Brighton since 1995 is feeding the demographic change here I think. That may be true. But there can't have been that much demographic change in 2 years. I just find it absolutely staggering that in an election 5 years after the previous one, the Labour Party sees a measly increase of less than 2,000 in its vote but in an election held just 2 years later the Labour vote shoots up by more than 11,000. I really can't think of a very good explanation for that. I'm not suggesting that there is anything fishy about the result but there was not a scrap of electoral evidence before June 8 that Labour would see such a huge increase in its support in Shoreham. It really is one of the most staggering and perplexing things that I have seen in my more than 20 years of studying English politics. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2017 11:40:31 GMT
The 500% increase in house prices in Brighton since 1995 is feeding the demographic change here I think. That may be true. But there can't have been that much demographic change in 2 years. I just find it absolutely staggering that in an election 5 years after the previous one, the Labour Party sees a measly increase of less than 2,000 in its vote but in an election held just 2 years later the Labour vote shoots up by more than 11,000. I really can't think of a very good explanation for that. I'm not suggesting that there is anything fishy about the result but there was not a scrap of electoral evidence before June 8 that Labour would see such a huge increase in its support in Shoreham. It really is one of the most staggering and perplexing things that I have seen in my more than 20 years of studying English politics. There must be something to do with the blurring of cultural differences between Brighton & Hove and this seat. The only explanation I can think of is the mammoth campaign Labour ran in Hove - how many residents of this seat travel to Brighton (driving through Portslade and Hove as I have done before) and were influenced by the massive campaign. Maybe the UKIP vote here was just anti-Tory inclined, or the UKIP collapse hides genuine CON-LAB switching. I really don't know more than that but clearly the 15% swing from CON-LAB in Hove (the largest swing in the country) must've had an impact here. Of cours the Conservative vote was up from 24,686 to 25,988. it's just Labour put on 11,000 votes. Increase in Labour's number of votes by seat: East Worthing & Shoreham: +11,145 Hove: +14,860 Worthing West: +10,136 |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 1, 2017 11:42:16 GMT
Can't disagree with any of that. What I was trying to suggest is that a lot of well to do metropolitan guardian reading liberal types had migrated over to Worthing from Brighton. Not many of them settling in Mash Barn which as we have clearly seen was fertile kipper territory until recently. For what it's worth I think Labour probably will take it, on the assumption that the ward will be flooded with momentum activists from Brighton... I knew something was afoot in EW&S back in May/June when there were probably five times the number of Labour posters than at the 2015 election. Whether Mash Barn will reflect the general constituency trend I'm not certain. That ward is estimated to have voted Labour in June - probably the first time it ever has done. |
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Post by tonygreaves on Oct 1, 2017 14:00:12 GMT
Coming back to these local by-elections there is a continuing trend of UKIP withdrawals (even before their vote collapses). Will their highly charismatic  new leader make any difference to their levels of activity? There is also a slightly encouraging increase in the number of LD interventions and re-interventions. |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 1, 2017 21:27:36 GMT
The 500% increase in house prices in Brighton since 1995 is feeding the demographic change here I think. That may be true. But there can't have been that much demographic change in 2 years. I just find it absolutely staggering that in an election 5 years after the previous one, the Labour Party sees a measly increase of less than 2,000 in its vote but in an election held just 2 years later the Labour vote shoots up by more than 11,000. I really can't think of a very good explanation for that. I'm not suggesting that there is anything fishy about the result but there was not a scrap of electoral evidence before June 8 that Labour would see such a huge increase in its support in Shoreham. It really is one of the most staggering and perplexing things that I have seen in my more than 20 years of studying English politics. Well, it was basically just a tactical rearrangement (of course with churn) of the opposition votes, added to the fact that the Labour % was up 10% across the country, with the Tory % being remarkably stable for 3 elections in a row. In contrast, in 2015 the Labour vote nationally was only up 1.5% and they started from third place If Labour are ever going to win this seat they need to get the Tory vote below 48%, which will probably require a significant improvement in Lib Dem or UKIP fortunes (or both)... |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 1, 2017 23:12:41 GMT
Can't disagree with any of that. What I was trying to suggest is that a lot of well to do metropolitan guardian reading liberal types had migrated over to Worthing from Brighton. Not many of them settling in Mash Barn which as we have clearly seen was fertile kipper territory until recently. For what it's worth I think Labour probably will take it, on the assumption that the ward will be flooded with momentum activists from Brighton... I knew something was afoot in EW&S back in May/June when there were probably five times the number of Labour posters than at the 2015 election. Whether Mash Barn will reflect the general constituency trend I'm not certain. That ward is estimated to have voted Labour in June - probably the first time it ever has done. Estimated by who? I doubt it did |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 3:30:45 GMT
That ward is estimated to have voted Labour in June - probably the first time it ever has done. Estimated by who? I doubt it did Electoral calculus. Obviously treating those figures with caution. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 2, 2017 6:54:47 GMT
Estimated by who? I doubt it did Electoral calculus. Obviously treating those figures with caution. Do you have a link to their figures? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 7:56:29 GMT
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 2, 2017 8:18:19 GMT
Where to start with that? Perhaps with the fact that the total figures at the bottom aren't those from the last general election - presumably these are the projected figures based on current polling. Still the map seems to indicate that Mash Barn was carried by Labour at the election but that Selden and Broadwater were not. This despite the fact that Labour came very close to winnning the equivalent county council divisions a month before the general election while being nowhere near winning in Lancing (the Labour surge in parts of Worthing in May was much commented on at the time). So you've got to say that Selden and Broadwater are far more likely to have provided a Labour plurality than Mash Barn. Also look at that result in Marine ..  Somehow UKIP are on about 18% making it not only the best ward by far for them in this constituency but one of the best on the whole country despite being demographically one of their weakest areas in Adur (and another 9% for the Greens here). |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 2, 2017 8:24:40 GMT
There's one ward in Westminster which we kept a close eye on, monitoring the ballot box splits for the general election, and where what the ballot boxes showed was completely the opposite trend to the figures given by Electoral Calculus.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 2, 2017 8:49:52 GMT
Anyway (and perhaps this isn't the right thread) while I was surprised as anyone by the Labour surge in WE&S at the general election, perhaps what is more surprising is that Labour haven't done much better here before. I lived in the Brighton area for a brief period in 1995 and toured quite extensively. Shoreham was at that time a safe Conservative seat with a pretty derisory Labour vote and while that was partly influenced by the presence of some generally quite pleasant wards from Arun district, Adur itself was sufficiently dominant that it must also have been pretty weak for Labour then. For sure the Lib Dems were then very strong locally but as they were also strong in places like Three Rivers and Richmond this didn't necessarily point to the area being downmarket. I was shocked therefore when I first went to Shoreham. Parts of old Shoreham are nice but mostly it is a run down industrial shit hole while Lancing is one of the most dismal and depressing places I have ever set foot in and given this was over 20 years ago and much of the housing stock is of inter-war vintage I doubt the area has improved. We could really do with the input of Tim Jones from another place to do justice to how much of a dump this area is. East Worthing is a different kettle of fish and here we can clearly see the kind of changes that affected Brighton a generation earlier, but most of Adur has always been a run-down shithole. There was of course subsequent to my time there a minor Labour breakthrough around the turn of the century as the Lib Dem vote collapsed and they were briefly the largest party on the local council and when the Lib Dems failed to put up any candidates in 2002, Labour achieved the kind of level of support that they did in June
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 2, 2017 9:16:18 GMT
I've warned people in my own CLP about giving too much credence to Electoral Calculus at our last Executive meeting & the language I used was pretty strong even for a Labour Party meeting. Their estimates in Welsh villages are particularly dire but there are plenty of other examples. Just had a look at some of the estimates for other seats in the area and apparently Midhurst voted Labour lol |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 2, 2017 9:57:03 GMT
Do we really have to point out all over again that Electoral Calculus is a crock of shit. I thought everyone on this site knew that already, but there has been a worrying resurgence of references to Electoral Calculus recently.
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 2, 2017 10:12:40 GMT
Anyway (and perhaps this isn't the right thread) while I was surprised as anyone by the Labour surge in WE&S at the general election, perhaps what is more surprising is that Labour haven't done much better here before. I lived in the Brighton area for a brief period in 1995 and toured quite extensively. Shoreham was at that time a safe Conservative seat with a pretty derisory Labour vote and while that was partly influenced by the presence of some generally quite pleasant wards from Arun district, Adur itself was sufficiently dominant that it must also have been pretty weak for Labour then. For sure the Lib Dems were then very strong locally but as they were also strong in places like Three Rivers and Richmond this didn't necessarily point to the area being downmarket. I was shocked therefore when I first went to Shoreham. Parts of old Shoreham are nice but mostly it is a run down industrial shit hole while Lancing is one of the most dismal and depressing places I have ever set foot in and given this was over 20 years ago and much of the housing stock is of inter-war vintage I doubt the area has improved. We could really do with the input of Tim Jones from another place to do justice to how much of a dump this area is. East Worthing is a different kettle of fish and here we can clearly see the kind of changes that affected Brighton a generation earlier, but most of Adur has always been a run-down shithole. There was of course subsequent to my time there a minor Labour breakthrough around the turn of the century as the Lib Dem vote collapsed and they were briefly the largest party on the local council and when the Lib Dems failed to put up any candidates in 2002, Labour achieved the kind of level of support that they did in June Yes there has always been a potential Labour vote in Shoreham town and Lancing, going back to when I lived in the area in the 1970s. For many years however this was one of the key areas of Liberal activism, and they controlled the council for quite a long time. The Liberals could of course appeal to people in the rural hinterland of Adur as well as in the coastal towns.
I know nothing about Worthing except for statistics, and these show it to be a modern and increasingly thriving town, a long way from its historic status as a retirement ghetto.
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 10:41:26 GMT
Anyway (and perhaps this isn't the right thread) while I was surprised as anyone by the Labour surge in WE&S at the general election, perhaps what is more surprising is that Labour haven't done much better here before. I lived in the Brighton area for a brief period in 1995 and toured quite extensively. Shoreham was at that time a safe Conservative seat with a pretty derisory Labour vote and while that was partly influenced by the presence of some generally quite pleasant wards from Arun district, Adur itself was sufficiently dominant that it must also have been pretty weak for Labour then. For sure the Lib Dems were then very strong locally but as they were also strong in places like Three Rivers and Richmond this didn't necessarily point to the area being downmarket. I was shocked therefore when I first went to Shoreham. Parts of old Shoreham are nice but mostly it is a run down industrial shit hole while Lancing is one of the most dismal and depressing places I have ever set foot in and given this was over 20 years ago and much of the housing stock is of inter-war vintage I doubt the area has improved. We could really do with the input of Tim Jones from another place to do justice to how much of a dump this area is. East Worthing is a different kettle of fish and here we can clearly see the kind of changes that affected Brighton a generation earlier, but most of Adur has always been a run-down shithole. There was of course subsequent to my time there a minor Labour breakthrough around the turn of the century as the Lib Dem vote collapsed and they were briefly the largest party on the local council and when the Lib Dems failed to put up any candidates in 2002, Labour achieved the kind of level of support that they did in June Thanks for the insight. So you’d agree with me that East Worthing & Shoreham and Worthing West are trending Labour and going the way of Hove long-term? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 10:46:26 GMT
Anyway (and perhaps this isn't the right thread) while I was surprised as anyone by the Labour surge in WE&S at the general election, perhaps what is more surprising is that Labour haven't done much better here before. I lived in the Brighton area for a brief period in 1995 and toured quite extensively. Shoreham was at that time a safe Conservative seat with a pretty derisory Labour vote and while that was partly influenced by the presence of some generally quite pleasant wards from Arun district, Adur itself was sufficiently dominant that it must also have been pretty weak for Labour then. For sure the Lib Dems were then very strong locally but as they were also strong in places like Three Rivers and Richmond this didn't necessarily point to the area being downmarket. I was shocked therefore when I first went to Shoreham. Parts of old Shoreham are nice but mostly it is a run down industrial shit hole while Lancing is one of the most dismal and depressing places I have ever set foot in and given this was over 20 years ago and much of the housing stock is of inter-war vintage I doubt the area has improved. We could really do with the input of Tim Jones from another place to do justice to how much of a dump this area is. East Worthing is a different kettle of fish and here we can clearly see the kind of changes that affected Brighton a generation earlier, but most of Adur has always been a run-down shithole. There was of course subsequent to my time there a minor Labour breakthrough around the turn of the century as the Lib Dem vote collapsed and they were briefly the largest party on the local council and when the Lib Dems failed to put up any candidates in 2002, Labour achieved the kind of level of support that they did in June Yes there has always been a potential Labour vote in Shoreham town and Lancing, going back to when I lived in the area in the 1970s. For many years however this was one of the key areas of Liberal activism, and they controlled the council for quite a long time. The Liberals could of course appeal to people in the rural hinterland of Adur as well as in the coastal towns.
I know nothing about Worthing except for statistics, and these show it to be a modern and increasingly thriving town, a long way from its historic status as a retirement ghetto.
Another place where Labour have a nascent vote that broke for the SDP/Liberals from the 80s on - see Portsmouth South and Sheffield, Hallam for other examples. |
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 2, 2017 10:58:33 GMT
Do we really have to point out all over again that Electoral Calculus is a crock of shit. I thought everyone on this site knew that already, but there has been a worrying resurgence of references to Electoral Calculus recently. I agree, except for the fact that some of the local byelection results have not been far off Electoral Calculus's guesses, which I find interesting, if nothing more. Whether this is coincidental due to Labour pouring in/having more resources, or whether it is due to local activists believing the guesses of Electoral Calculus and trying harder, one can only speculate. There are many problems with what Electoral Calculus do, but it is interesting that they think it is worth trying. Where do they get the figures from? |
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new leader make any difference to their levels of activity? 
Somehow UKIP are on about 18% making it not only the best ward by far for them in this constituency but one of the best on the whole country despite being demographically one of their weakest areas in Adur (and another 9% for the Greens here). 