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Post by MeirionGwril on Oct 2, 2017 11:11:27 GMT
Well, another week with few chances of Plaid gains .....  |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 2, 2017 12:08:45 GMT
I’m still saying LAB gain whatever Electoral Calculus says.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 2, 2017 12:28:39 GMT
Anyway (and perhaps this isn't the right thread) while I was surprised as anyone by the Labour surge in WE&S at the general election, perhaps what is more surprising is that Labour haven't done much better here before. I lived in the Brighton area for a brief period in 1995 and toured quite extensively. Shoreham was at that time a safe Conservative seat with a pretty derisory Labour vote and while that was partly influenced by the presence of some generally quite pleasant wards from Arun district, Adur itself was sufficiently dominant that it must also have been pretty weak for Labour then. For sure the Lib Dems were then very strong locally but as they were also strong in places like Three Rivers and Richmond this didn't necessarily point to the area being downmarket. I was shocked therefore when I first went to Shoreham. Parts of old Shoreham are nice but mostly it is a run down industrial shit hole while Lancing is one of the most dismal and depressing places I have ever set foot in and given this was over 20 years ago and much of the housing stock is of inter-war vintage I doubt the area has improved. We could really do with the input of Tim Jones from another place to do justice to how much of a dump this area is. East Worthing is a different kettle of fish and here we can clearly see the kind of changes that affected Brighton a generation earlier, but most of Adur has always been a run-down shithole. There was of course subsequent to my time there a minor Labour breakthrough around the turn of the century as the Lib Dem vote collapsed and they were briefly the largest party on the local council and when the Lib Dems failed to put up any candidates in 2002, Labour achieved the kind of level of support that they did in June Thanks for the insight. So you’d agree with me that East Worthing & Shoreham and Worthing West are trending Labour and going the way of Hove long-term? Very very simplistic. For one thing I'm not even sure that Hove is going the way of Hove long-term (by which I mean while it has clearly been demonstrating a long-term trend to the left over the last 30 years it is probably even yet not the overwhelmingly safe Labour seat that the most recent general election result makes it appear. The 2017 general election was a particular set of circumstances in which certain issues had an unusual salience and certain groups of voters were galvanised in a way not seen before and coalesced to an almost unprecedented degree behind the Labour party. Whether those circumstances will continue into future elections is far from certain. Additionally there were specific issues in this constituency with apparently a very poor choice of Tory candidate for this seat) Secondly Worthing East & Shoreham is not a homogenous constituency. There are three distincta reas of roughly equal size and while Labour's share must have increased substantially in all of them it would not have been to the same degree in all of them or for the same reason. East Worthing (as Worthing as a whole) is showing some evidence of starting on a demographic and electoral trajectory similar to that seen in Brighton and Hove 30 years ago (though it would be a mistake to assume that these kind of trends are always inexorable in one direction - see my references elsewhere to Newham South and Harrow East. Shoreham is not much like Brighton & Hove or Worthing - as I've described it already it is basically an industrial blue collar town and has always contained the basis for a substantial Labour vote either real or potential. Parts of Southwick are very similar to Portslade (indeed the areas are indistinguishable on the ground) which was always the Labour stronghold in the Hove seat. Interestingly though Portslade is no longer the strongest Labour part of Hove, not because Labour have weakened there but because they have become stronger elswhere, principally in the bohemian areas like Brunswick & Adelaide and Central Hove. There may be some of the types you associate with Brighton & Hove moving into Shoreham but I don't think this element represents the main basis for Labour support in the area. Finally Lancing/Sompting is a very different area again, primarily a retirement area and as wifkofthesouth mentioned upthread not at all the type of area you would expect Bohos from Brighton to want to move to. Again there has always been a real or potential Labour vote here but this was supressed over many years by long-term local Liberal strength. Basically, at least as far as the Adur section of the seat (ie the majority) goes there has always been this Labour potential and perhaps this year they achieved their maximum potential which means the scope for further increases is limited |
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Post by finsobruce on Oct 2, 2017 12:57:32 GMT
Well, another week with few chances of Plaid gains ..... like the new avatar, btw. |
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Oct 2, 2017 19:04:15 GMT
Thanks for the insight. So you’d agree with me that East Worthing & Shoreham and Worthing West are trending Labour and going the way of Hove long-term? Very very simplistic. For one thing I'm not even sure that Hove is going the way of Hove long-term (by which I mean while it has clearly been demonstrating a long-term trend to the left over the last 30 years it is probably even yet not the overwhelmingly safe Labour seat that the most recent general election result makes it appear. The 2017 general election was a particular set of circumstances in which certain issues had an unusual salience and certain groups of voters were galvanised in a way not seen before and coalesced to an almost unprecedented degree behind the Labour party. Whether those circumstances will continue into future elections is far from certain. Additionally there were specific issues in this constituency with apparently a very poor choice of Tory candidate for this seat) Secondly Worthing East & Shoreham is not a homogenous constituency. There are three distincta reas of roughly equal size and while Labour's share must have increased substantially in all of them it would not have been to the same degree in all of them or for the same reason. East Worthing (as Worthing as a whole) is showing some evidence of starting on a demographic and electoral trajectory similar to that seen in Brighton and Hove 30 years ago (though it would be a mistake to assume that these kind of trends are always inexorable in one direction - see my references elsewhere to Newham South and Harrow East. Shoreham is not much like Brighton & Hove or Worthing - as I've described it already it is basically an industrial blue collar town and has always contained the basis for a substantial Labour vote either real or potential. Parts of Southwick are very similar to Portslade (indeed the areas are indistinguishable on the ground) which was always the Labour stronghold in the Hove seat. Interestingly though Portslade is no longer the strongest Labour part of Hove, not because Labour have weakened there but because they have become stronger elswhere, principally in the bohemian areas like Brunswick & Adelaide and Central Hove. There may be some of the types you associate with Brighton & Hove moving into Shoreham but I don't think this element represents the main basis for Labour support in the area. Finally Lancing/Sompting is a very different area again, primarily a retirement area and as wifkofthesouth mentioned upthread not at all the type of area you would expect Bohos from Brighton to want to move to. Again there has always been a real or potential Labour vote here but this was supressed over many years by long-term local Liberal strength. Basically, at least as far as the Adur section of the seat (ie the majority) goes there has always been this Labour potential and perhaps this year they achieved their maximum potential which means the scope for further increases is limited The late and deeply missed Mark Senior used to pull me up all the time when I spoke of Labour potential and a latent Labour vote, but, as has been shown in much of the South-West at the election, Labour has regained support in areas where it was historically strong. I agree with your assessment in Shoreham. Mark Senior agreed with me that Labour should go all out fir Mash Barn, but couldn't resist pointing out how badly they had done in recent times. |
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Post by dizz on Oct 2, 2017 21:50:58 GMT
I've warned people in my own CLP about giving too much credence to Electoral Calculus at our last Executive meeting & the language I used was pretty strong even for a Labour Party meeting. Their estimates in Welsh villages are particularly dire but there are plenty of other examples. Just had a look at some of the estimates for other seats in the area and apparently Midhurst voted Labour lol Clearly it didn't but Midhurst South would be closer.  |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 5, 2017 8:24:18 GMT
Andrew Teale's preview
britainelects.com/2017/10/04/previews-05-oct-2017/
Note that Britain Elects only loads these very late on Wednesday night (this wasn't up at 10pm last night) or on Thursday morning, even if Andrew writes them much earlier. I think we would all like them a day earlier, even if we don't participate in the prediction competition (trying to predict District Council by-elections from a distance is a mug's game). |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 5, 2017 9:06:37 GMT
There is a mistake in there re: Kenilworth, namely that the Studios estate part of the ward is in the Potters Bar West & Shenley county council division not Borehamwood North as stated
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 5, 2017 9:49:38 GMT
Andrew Teale's preview
britainelects.com/2017/10/04/previews-05-oct-2017/
Note that Britain Elects only loads these very late on Wednesday night (this wasn't up at 10pm last night) or on Thursday morning, even if Andrew writes them much earlier. I think we would all like them a day earlier, even if we don't participate in the prediction competition (trying to predict District Council by-elections from a distance is a mug's game). well quite but a mugs game some of us mugs get hooked on. There is nothing like committing yourself to the ridicule of your peers to make you really try to find out what is going on on the ground, and if against all the odds you can sometimes get it spot on, it gets to be seriously addictive... |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2017 13:49:43 GMT
Britain Elects is a fantastic resource.
When will we know if Labour have taken that seat in Adur?
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Post by jigger on Oct 5, 2017 13:52:19 GMT
Britain Elects is a fantastic resource. When will we know if Labour have taken that seat in Adur? When the result is declared by the Returning Officer. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2017 14:01:44 GMT
Britain Elects is a fantastic resource. When will we know if Labour have taken that seat in Adur? When the result is declared by the Returning Officer. I know that just wondered when. You'd think it being the council estate ward it'd be the strongest part of East Worthing & Shoreham for Labour and they ought to be favourites given their newfound strength here. |
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Post by jigger on Oct 5, 2017 14:09:16 GMT
When the result is declared by the Returning Officer. I know that just wondered when. You'd think it being the council estate ward it'd be the strongest part of East Worthing & Shoreham for Labour and they ought to be favourites given their newfound strength here. Nobody knows precisely when - that all depends on turnout, number of voters, how close the result is, etc. There are too many variables to make estimates about when a seat is going to declare - it's why I don't put much trust in the estimated declaration times that the Press Association produce before each election. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 5, 2017 14:10:07 GMT
Britain Elects is a fantastic resource. When will we know if Labour have taken that seat in Adur? When the result is declared by the Returning Officer. Well, no actually, unless you are in the room. We will not know that the RO has made his announcement until someone with direct access puts it on twitter, or whatever, and then only when someone in the know makes that more generally available. Sometimes the first intimation is picked up on Britain Elects, and that is usually at first in percentage terms only. As to when that will be, which I guess is what Con Est was really asking, I've no idea but typically its about 2am and its a reasonably compact ward so maybe sooner?Or of course it may be close so we could have recounts... |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 5, 2017 14:10:10 GMT
I know that just wondered when. You'd think it being the council estate ward it'd be the strongest part of East Worthing & Shoreham for Labour and they ought to be favourites given their newfound strength here. Nobody knows precisely when - that all depends on turnout, number of voters, how close the result is, etc. There are too many variables to make estimates about when a seat is going to declare - it's why I don't put much trust in the estimated declaration times that the Press Association produce before each election. Nor do I |
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Post by andrew111 on Oct 5, 2017 14:50:37 GMT
When the result is declared by the Returning Officer. Well, no actually, unless you are in the room. We will not know that the RO has made his announcement until someone with direct access puts it on twitter, or whatever, and then only when someone in the know makes that more generally available. Sometimes the first intimation is picked up on Britain Elects, and that is usually at first in percentage terms only. As to when that will be, which I guess is what Con Est was really asking, I've no idea but typically its about 2am and its a reasonably compact ward so maybe sooner?Or of course it may be close so we could have recounts... Well, to be fair these local by-elections with low turnouts are usually declared well before midnight unless they decide to count the next day... |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 5, 2017 15:28:33 GMT
Well, no actually, unless you are in the room. We will not know that the RO has made his announcement until someone with direct access puts it on twitter, or whatever, and then only when someone in the know makes that more generally available. Sometimes the first intimation is picked up on Britain Elects, and that is usually at first in percentage terms only. As to when that will be, which I guess is what Con Est was really asking, I've no idea but typically its about 2am and its a reasonably compact ward so maybe sooner?Or of course it may be close so we could have recounts... Well, to be fair these local by-elections with low turnouts are usually declared well before midnight unless they decide to count the next day... tbh, i wouldn't have had a clue before, but since I have started on the prediction game, I have been keeping careful note of the declaration times, or at least the time the declarations get into the public domain, and a very few have been before midnight and I am usually waiting for the late ones until some time after 2am. And I see very poor correlation between the size of the ward, or the remoteness or the closeness of the result unless it goes to recounts. Some places like to get on with it and some don't seem to be bothered. And some ,once the declaration is made its all over the media and some it isn't- there seems no rhyme nor reason that I can see.. |
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Post by Robert Waller on Oct 5, 2017 18:11:48 GMT
I think the issue is more when we will actually be notified through some internet linkage.
A compact ward like Mash Barn really should be counted before midnight (if it is indeed counted on the day, which they are more often than not). Whether we shall discover the result by then involves a considerable element of luck.
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Post by andrewteale on Oct 5, 2017 18:22:51 GMT
There is a mistake in there re: Kenilworth, namely that the Studios estate part of the ward is in the Potters Bar West & Shenley county council division not Borehamwood North as stated Sorry about that, I misread the map. |
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Post by wickofthesouth on Oct 5, 2017 18:33:48 GMT
Is Mash Barn the most hotly anticipated council by election ever? It’s generating a lot of interest.
I drove through there on Sunday and saw 5 Labour posters and one lone Labour activist on a leaflet drop. That anecdote means nothing of course but I thought I’d share. I do hope we find out before midnight , I need an early night.
Regarding Pete Whitehead’s thoughts from the other day I think a good portion of Shoreham is more upmarket now than perhaps it used to be. Lancing is indeed a bit of a boghole but the new beach cafe suggests it is slowly going upmarket. Especially if the prices are anything to go by!
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