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Post by yellowperil on Aug 28, 2017 6:58:24 GMT
As the first of these is tomorrow and nobody else has posted any details, here is the barest minimum:
Tuesday August 29th, Scarborough BC Mulgrave
Candidates: Con, Lab, Yorkshire, Ind.
2015: Con 795/558, Ind 494/188, UKIP 410, Lab 353/309, Green 212.
Thursday August 31st, North Somerset UA Weston -Super-Mare North Worle
Candidates: Con, Lab ,LD, UKIP, Ind.
2015: Con 1506/1165, North Somerset First 1229, UKIP 1113, Lab 772/750, LD 641.
Edit - I have corrected my most obvious error- North Somerset is of course a unitary authority not a DC. Nobody has pointed out any other errors and I had to do all this in haste. Any further embellishments,- preferably this side of the count, would be welcome. I was wanting something posted to help remind any would- be predictors of the Tuesday election.
2nd edit -even worse error -removed a phantom Green candidate
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Post by Robert Waller on Aug 29, 2017 21:58:12 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 29, 2017 22:14:57 GMT
Mulgrave is counting tonight. The turnout is 31.09%.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 29, 2017 22:31:29 GMT
SCARBOROUGH Mulgrave
Marion Watson (Conservative Party Candidate) 395
Hugo Simeon Fearnley (Labour Party) 299
John Armsby (Independent) 118
Lee Francis Derrick (Yorkshire Party) 37
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 29, 2017 23:47:50 GMT
Very pleasing result for Labour in a ward we haven't always contested and whose demographics - old, rural and white - aren't promising for us
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 30, 2017 1:54:06 GMT
The Labour performance is remarkable- the seaside effect in a most unlikely ward. Maybe down to personalities rather than party politics, but the two things that may have spurred Labour on:
1. Conservative control of the Council at stake
2.Conservative candidate disqualified for non-attendance
Will make the North Somerset result interesting - another rural(ish) ward outside a seaside resort, at the other end of the country.
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Post by froome on Aug 30, 2017 7:16:11 GMT
The Labour performance is remarkable- the seaside effect in a most unlikely ward. Maybe down to personalities rather than party politics, but the two things that may have spurred Labour on: 1. Conservative control of the Council at stake 2.Conservative candidate disqualified for non-attendance Will make the North Somerset result interesting - another rural(ish) ward outside a seaside resort, at the other end of the country. North Worle certainly isn't rural. It is wholly within Weston-super-Mare and is a traditional suburban ward that mostly developed during the late 20th century, and is fairly strongly Conservative inclined. Given current polling, it will be interesting to see if Labour can make a substantial inroad into their majority. |
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Post by yellowperil on Aug 30, 2017 7:38:50 GMT
yes by rural(ish) I meant not really urban, certainly not rural in the sense that Mulgrave was. From what you say about much of it being late twentieth century,I don't think I've been there since the sixties so maybe I am expecting it to be a lot more rural than it is now.
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Post by froome on Aug 30, 2017 11:51:11 GMT
yes by rural(ish) I meant not really urban, certainly not rural in the sense that Mulgrave was. From what you say about much of it being late twentieth century,I don't think I've been there since the sixties so maybe I am expecting it to be a lot more rural than it is now. I expect in the sixties Worle was still a small village, but now it is a sprawling development of housing, that during this century has extended beyond Worle itself into St George's and to the north. All this latter development is on the floodplain and undoubtedly at risk from a changing climate. |
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,732
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 30, 2017 21:38:13 GMT
Interestingly, the Mulgrave result is not far from ElectoralCalculus's estimate from the General Election. This has happened in a few of the recent byelection results. They guessed at 32.7% for Labour in North Worle, with Tories at 51.8%.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 30, 2017 23:51:07 GMT
Well thats sorted I will add Electoral Calculus to my list of reading before a by election
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Post by WestCountryRadical on Aug 31, 2017 6:09:16 GMT
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 31, 2017 12:15:40 GMT
The Labour performance is remarkable- the seaside effect in a most unlikely ward. Maybe down to personalities rather than party politics, but the two things that may have spurred Labour on: 1. Conservative control of the Council at stake 2.Conservative candidate disqualified for non-attendance Will make the North Somerset result interesting - another rural(ish) ward outside a seaside resort, at the other end of the country. I would not have said "remarkable" in this case. With so many Green and UKIP votes to play for I would have said an 18% increase for Labour when up 10% in the polls since 2015 is no more than par.. If I was a Tory I would be quite content with this result... |
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Post by Deleted on Aug 31, 2017 18:26:02 GMT
Content? Relieved is probably more appropriate
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Post by Merseymike on Aug 31, 2017 21:37:35 GMT
The Labour performance is remarkable- the seaside effect in a most unlikely ward. Maybe down to personalities rather than party politics, but the two things that may have spurred Labour on: 1. Conservative control of the Council at stake 2.Conservative candidate disqualified for non-attendance Will make the North Somerset result interesting - another rural(ish) ward outside a seaside resort, at the other end of the country. I would not have said "remarkable" in this case. With so many Green and UKIP votes to play for I would have said an 18% increase for Labour when up 10% in the polls since 2015 is no more than par.. If I was a Tory I would be quite content with this result... The majority in Scarborough and Whitby is only 4000. If we get this sort of result across the constituency particularly in marginal Whitby we take the seat |
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Post by andrew111 on Aug 31, 2017 21:55:25 GMT
I would not have said "remarkable" in this case. With so many Green and UKIP votes to play for I would have said an 18% increase for Labour when up 10% in the polls since 2015 is no more than par.. If I was a Tory I would be quite content with this result... The majority in Scarborough and Whitby is only 4000. If we get this sort of result across the constituency particularly in marginal Whitby we take the seat yes, but the swings are just not meaningful for this ward with such a different set of parties standing. As said above this result is in line with Electoral Calculus which will reflect the relatively close result you mention in the constituency |
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Post by Ben Walker on Aug 31, 2017 22:01:28 GMT
These results don't show much more than vindication of the GE result, imo.
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Post by jigger on Aug 31, 2017 22:17:32 GMT
These results don't show much more than vindication of the GE result, imo. What do you mean by "vindication"? Why does a General election result need to be vindicated? |
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Post by Ben Walker on Aug 31, 2017 22:19:56 GMT
These results don't show much more than vindication of the GE result, imo. What do you mean by "vindication"? Why does a General election result need to be vindicated? It doesn't, but the recent gains in support for Labour (chgs. vs 2015/16) are, I believe, merely a vindication reflection of the general election result: a Labour Party now polling at 40-odd per cent nationally. |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 31, 2017 22:23:22 GMT
North Worle turnout 25.6%.
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