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Post by jigger on Aug 31, 2017 22:29:28 GMT
I would not have said "remarkable" in this case. With so many Green and UKIP votes to play for I would have said an 18% increase for Labour when up 10% in the polls since 2015 is no more than par.. If I was a Tory I would be quite content with this result... The majority in Scarborough and Whitby is only 4000. If we get this sort of result across the constituency particularly in marginal Whitby we take the seatNot really, because if the Conservative vote also increased by as much as it did in this by-election, then that would put the Conservatives at nearly 60% of the vote. |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 31, 2017 22:30:37 GMT
North Worle turnout 25.6%. Around 1,600 votes? |
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timmullen1
Labour
Closing account as BossMan declines to respond to messages seeking support.
Posts: 11,823 
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Post by timmullen1 on Aug 31, 2017 23:10:19 GMT
Lib Dem leader on North Somerset has Tweeted a Labour GAIN in North Worle.
#NorthWorle North Somerset by-election district result, Lab gain. Con 525, Lab 589, Lib 265, Ind 132, UKIP 108. @britainelects @aldc
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Terry Weldon
Lib Dem
Councilor, Waverley BC and Haslemere TC. Lifelong liberal, in S Africa and now UK
Posts: 307
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Post by Terry Weldon on Aug 31, 2017 23:18:35 GMT
A notable gain for Labour. Andrew's preview notes that before the North Somerset First tenure, this was Con/LD turf.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,729
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Post by CatholicLeft on Aug 31, 2017 23:19:47 GMT
A notable gain for Labour. Andrew's preview notes that before the North Somerset First tenure, this was Con/LD turf. If you look at the coastal ward byelection results recemtly, the guesses by ElectoralCalculus have been spot on, and Labour on the ground has recognised this. |
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Post by middleenglander on Aug 31, 2017 23:31:11 GMT
Scarborough, Mulgrave - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 ^ | | Conservative | 395 | 46.5% | +11.4% | +12.2% | +3.1% | Labour | 299 | 35.2% | +19.6% | +18.4% | +17.5% | Independent Armsby | 118 | 13.9% | -7.9% | -3.4% | -25.0% | Yorkshire | 37 | 4.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -18.1% | -20.8% |
| Green |
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| -9.4% | -10.8% |
| Total | 849 |
| 38% | 43% | 53% |
^ In 2011 there were only 3 candidates for 2 seats ^^ The 2015 Independent "average" was Armsby (494 votes) and Peach (188) Swing ~ 4% / 3% Conservative to Labour since 2015 and, less meaningful, ~ 7% since 2011 Council now 26 Conservative, 13 Labour, 5 Independent, 4 UKIP, 2 Green North Somerset, Weston-Super-Mare North Worle - Labour gain from North Somerset First| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 589 | 36.4% | +21.7% | +21.4% | Conservative | 525 | 32.4% | +3.8% | +6.1% | Liberal Democrat | 265 | 16.4% | +4.2% | +3.7% | Independent | 132 | 8.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 108 | 6.7% | -14.5% | -15.2% | North Somerset First |
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| -23.4% | -24.2% | Total | 1,619 |
| 31% | 32% |
Swing Conservative to labour ~ 9% / 7½% since 2015 Council now 36 Conservative, 5 Independent, 4 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green
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Post by jigger on Aug 31, 2017 23:39:11 GMT
Scarborough, Mulgrave - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 ^ | | Conservative | 395 | 46.5% | +11.4% | +12.2% | +3.1% | Labour | 299 | 35.2% | +19.6% | +18.4% | +17.5% | Independent Armsby | 118 | 13.9% | -7.9% | -3.4% | -25.0% | Yorkshire | 37 | 4.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -18.1% | -20.8% |
| Green |
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| -9.4% | -10.8% |
| Total | 849 |
| 38% | 43% | 53% |
^ In 2011 there were only 3 candidates for 2 seats ^^ The 2015 Independent "average" was Armsby (494 votes) and Peach (188) Swing ~ 4% / 3% Conservative to Labour since 2015 and, less meaningful, ~ 7% since 2011 Council now 26 Conservative, 13 Labour, 5 Independent, 4 UKIP, 2 Green North Somerset, Weston-Super-Mare North Worle - Labour gain from North Somerset First| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 589 | 36.4% | +21.7% | +21.4% | Conservative | 525 | 32.4% | +3.8% | +6.1% | Liberal Democrat | 265 | 16.4% | +4.2% | +3.7% | Independent | 132 | 8.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 108 | 6.7% | -14.5% | -15.2% | North Somerset First |
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| -23.4% | -24.2% | Total | 1,619 |
| 31% | 32% |
Swing Conservative to labour ~ 9% / 7½% since 2015 Council now 36 Conservative, 5 Independent, 4 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour, 1 Green Both those results (in areas where the Liberals have had,in my lifetime, decent support) are yet more evidence that the Liberals are now an utter irrelevancy. Not even mustering a candidate in Scarborough is particularly poor. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Aug 31, 2017 23:41:47 GMT
Am I right in thinking that Labour are doing unusually well in coastal and tourist industry places? (Yes, I understand that Worle is something of a suburb but...)
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,784
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Post by J.G.Harston on Aug 31, 2017 23:46:06 GMT
Scarborough, Mulgrave - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 ^ | | Conservative | 395 | 46.5% | +11.4% | +12.2% | +3.1% | Labour | 299 | 35.2% | +19.6% | +18.4% | +17.5% | Independent Armsby | 118 | 13.9% | -7.9% | -3.4% | -25.0% | Yorkshire | 37 | 4.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -18.1% | -20.8% |
| Green |
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| -9.4% | -10.8% |
| Total | 849 |
| 38% | 43% | 53% |
^ In 2011 there were only 3 candidates for 2 seats ^^ The 2015 Independent "average" was Armsby (494 votes) and Peach (188) Swing ~ 4% / 3% Conservative to Labour since 2015 and, less meaningful, ~ 7% since 2011 Council now 26 Conservative, 13 Labour, 5 Independent, 4 UKIP, 2 Green North Somerset, Weston-Super-Mare North Worle - Labour gain from North Somerset First| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 589 | 36.4% | +21.7% | +21.4% | Conservative | 525 | 32.4% | +3.8% | +6.1% | Liberal Democrat | 265 | 16.4% | +4.2% | +3.7% | Independent | 132 | 8.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 108 | 6.7% | -14.5% | -15.2% | North Somerset First |
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| -23.4% | -24.2% | Total | 1,619 |
| 31% | 32% |
Swing Conservative to labour ~ 9% / 7½% since 2015 Council now 36 Conservative, 5 Independent, 4 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour, 1 Green Both those results (in areas where the Liberals have had,in my lifetime, decent support) are yet more evidence that the Liberals are now an utter irrelevancy. Not even mustering a candidate in Scarborough is particularly poor. The Liberals' local stronghold is Ryedale, not Scarborough. |
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Post by jigger on Aug 31, 2017 23:49:58 GMT
Both those results (in areas where the Liberals have had,in my lifetime, decent support) are yet more evidence that the Liberals are now an utter irrelevancy. Not even mustering a candidate in Scarborough is particularly poor. The Liberals' local stronghold is Ryedale, not Scarborough. I am talking about General elections (and it was quite obvious from the context that I was referring to the Liberal Democrats). From 1959 until 1987 it was generally the Liberals that were the main challengers to the Tories in Scarborough. |
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Post by jigger on Aug 31, 2017 23:55:30 GMT
Am I right in thinking that Labour are doing unusually well in coastal and tourist industry places? (Yes, I understand that Worle is something of a suburb but...) Well, Labour got their best result since 1955 in Weston-super-Mare in the 2017 general election, so it wasn't like it was an out of the blue result. The Tories also got their best result in the constituency since 1983 (which was better for them than the English average). Weston-Super-Mare is a very good example of the utter Conservative- Labour domination of England in a part of England where it has traditionally been weaker than average. |
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Aug 31, 2017 23:56:42 GMT
Am I right in thinking that Labour are doing unusually well in coastal and tourist industry places? (Yes, I understand that Worle is something of a suburb but...) Yep, basically replacing the Kippers it seems. The unclear line on Brexit has maybe been more useful than expected. |
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Post by jigger on Sept 1, 2017 0:04:50 GMT
Am I right in thinking that Labour are doing unusually well in coastal and tourist industry places? (Yes, I understand that Worle is something of a suburb but...) Yep, basically replacing the Kippers it seems. The unclear line on Brexit has maybe been more useful than expected. Labour's position on Brexit has not been unclear. Since the 24th June 2016, it has been to accept the result of the referendum and to support withdrawing the United Kingdom from the European Union. Though I think the effect of Brexit on people's voting intentions have been overstated, there is certainly no way that Labour would have got to their second highest vote share in England since 1970 with a stance that was (or seemed to be) against Brexit. Labour's support for Brexit was very important in preventing a Conservative landslide in June. Don't want to derail the thread. It just gets me frustrated when people say Labour have an unclear line on Brexit when it's not true. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Sept 1, 2017 0:16:25 GMT
Am I right in thinking that Labour are doing unusually well in coastal and tourist industry places? (Yes, I understand that Worle is something of a suburb but...) Yep, basically replacing the Kippers it seems. The unclear line on Brexit has maybe been more useful than expected. I wouldn't say it would be just that. There must be a lot of younger people who work locally, probably in too firm employment, voting for Labour more so than in the past - and I don't think those people were Kippers. But that's just me guessing. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,036
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Post by Sibboleth on Sept 1, 2017 0:51:12 GMT
What's happening is that lower income people in certain parts of England realised about halfway though the GE campaign that Labour is now led by a man who speaks with a pronounced burr. ONE OF US.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2017 1:01:04 GMT
In Andrew Teale's preview he remarks the area is popular with people travelling into Bristol for work. Maybe that's had an impact.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 1, 2017 4:07:20 GMT
Yes I suspect there may well have been a Bristol effect here. It might also be pointed out that there may have been a splitting effect of the LD vote in that the independent was the former Lib Dem councillor for the ward. So if their problem in Mulgrave was no candidate, their problem in North Worle was that they had two! The combined Lib/Ind vote still would not have been good enough but the effect of this sort of split is often to produce something less than the sum of the parts.
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Post by carlton43 on Sept 1, 2017 7:11:42 GMT
Mulgrave has long family associations for me and it was involved in the creation of Port Mulgrave and the NER there. When driving through Mulgrave Woods I reflected on it being the last land the family held apart from a house on Carr Hill, Sleights.
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Post by middleenglander on Sept 1, 2017 7:53:18 GMT
Scarborough, Mulgrave - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 ^ | | Conservative | 395 | 46.5% | +11.4% | +12.2% | +3.1% | Labour | 299 | 35.2% | +19.6% | +18.4% | +17.5% | Independent Armsby | 118 | 13.9% | -7.9% | -3.4% | -25.0% | Yorkshire | 37 | 4.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -18.1% | -20.8% |
| Green |
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| -9.4% | -10.8% |
| Total | 849 |
| 38% | 43% | 53% |
^ In 2011 there were only 3 candidates for 2 seats ^^ The 2015 Independent "average" was Armsby (494 votes) and Peach (188) Swing ~ 4% / 3% Conservative to Labour since 2015 and, less meaningful, ~ 7% since 2011 Council now 26 Conservative, 13 Labour, 5 Independent, 4 UKIP, 2 Green North Somerset, Weston-Super-Mare North Worle - Labour gain from North Somerset First| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 589 | 36.4% | +21.7% | +21.4% | Conservative | 525 | 32.4% | +3.8% | +6.1% | Liberal Democrat | 265 | 16.4% | +4.2% | +3.7% | Independent | 132 | 8.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 108 | 6.7% | -14.5% | -15.2% | North Somerset First |
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| -23.4% | -24.2% | Total | 1,619 |
| 31% | 32% |
Swing Conservative to labour ~ 9% / 7½% since 2015 Council now 36 Conservative, 5 Independent, 4 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 1 Green Just spotted that the N Somerset council figures aren't right - it says 4 Labour and then also 3 Labour. Thanks, now corrected. |
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albion
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,270
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Post by albion on Sept 1, 2017 9:19:48 GMT
What's happening is that lower income people in certain parts of England realised about halfway though the GE campaign that Labour is now led by a man who speaks with a pronounced burr. ONE OF US.Really Sibboleth? I had no idea you were a member of the Islington Glitterati. Jezza lost any burr a long time ago and any trace accent sounds nothing like either my wife's relatives in Wiltshire or mine in Shropshire. Perhap's you meant a pronounced bore? |
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