mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Sept 1, 2017 9:57:53 GMT
It might also be pointed out that there may have been a splitting effect of the LD vote in that the independent was the former Lib Dem councillor for the ward. FFS  |
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Post by Merseymike on Sept 1, 2017 11:12:21 GMT
What a terrible result for Labour. It's so dreadful when our vote increases by 20% and we take a seat for the first time where we were always a distant third. Just appalling. All the fault of that Jeremy Corbyn. You know he's a Communist who eats babies for breakfast. And he calls himself a vegetarian!
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Sept 1, 2017 11:28:24 GMT
The Liberals' local stronghold is Ryedale, not Scarborough. I am talking about General elections (and it was quite obvious from the context that I was referring to the Liberal Democrats). From 1959 until 1987 it was generally the Liberals that were the main challengers to the Tories in Scarborough. On a politics forum and refering to an area of the country where the Liberals stand against the Liberal Democrats, if you wanted to refer to the Liberal Democrats you need to /say/ Liberal Democrats. You are correct in saying the the *Liberals* are fading into irrelevancy, as they lost all their county council seats this year, so you are introducing confusion by not using the correct terminology. |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 1, 2017 11:34:56 GMT
Soon there is bound to be a week free of seaside contests, and we'll see what happens. Well, next week we have a genuine "mini super Thursday" with 14 contests - and most of them well away from the coast as it happens. |
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mboy
Liberal
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Post by mboy on Sept 1, 2017 12:27:34 GMT
It's fair to say that Labour are doing fairly well at the moment in local by-elections. It's also fair to say that Labour have lost 3 general elections in a row, and yet still have *thousands* less councillors than the Tories - a position that I believe is unprecedented at this stage in the electoral cycle...
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iain
Lib Dem
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Post by iain on Sept 1, 2017 13:18:31 GMT
It's fair to say that Labour are doing fairly well at the moment in local by-elections. It's also fair to say that Labour have lost 3 general elections in a row, and yet still have *thousands* less councillors than the Tories - a position that I believe is unprecedented at this stage in the electoral cycle... Though the increase in UAs may have a role in that? |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 1, 2017 13:51:04 GMT
Lets see how the local elections far ne t year
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Post by alderman on Sept 1, 2017 14:24:49 GMT
As well as the District Council, there was also a Town Council by-election with the following result
Weston Town Council North Worle Denise Hunt Labour 628
Marcia Pepperall Conservatives 621
Lewis Treloar Lib Dems 345
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Post by marksenior on Sept 2, 2017 10:58:08 GMT
Scarborough, Mulgrave - Conservative hold | Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | since 2011 ^ | | Conservative | 395 | 46.5% | +11.4% | +12.2% | +3.1% | Labour | 299 | 35.2% | +19.6% | +18.4% | +17.5% | Independent Armsby | 118 | 13.9% | -7.9% | -3.4% | -25.0% | Yorkshire | 37 | 4.4% | from nowhere | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP |
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| -18.1% | -20.8% |
| Green |
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| -9.4% | -10.8% |
| Total | 849 |
| 38% | 43% | 53% |
^ In 2011 there were only 3 candidates for 2 seats ^^ The 2015 Independent "average" was Armsby (494 votes) and Peach (188) Swing ~ 4% / 3% Conservative to Labour since 2015 and, less meaningful, ~ 7% since 2011 Council now 26 Conservative, 13 Labour, 5 Independent, 4 UKIP, 2 Green North Somerset, Weston-Super-Mare North Worle - Labour gain from North Somerset First| Party | 2017 votes | 2017 share | since 2015 "top" | since 2015 "average" | Labour | 589 | 36.4% | +21.7% | +21.4% | Conservative | 525 | 32.4% | +3.8% | +6.1% | Liberal Democrat | 265 | 16.4% | +4.2% | +3.7% | Independent | 132 | 8.2% | from nowhere | from nowhere | UKIP | 108 | 6.7% | -14.5% | -15.2% | North Somerset First |
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| -23.4% | -24.2% | Total | 1,619 |
| 31% | 32% |
Swing Conservative to labour ~ 9% / 7½% since 2015 Council now 36 Conservative, 5 Independent, 4 Labour, 4 Liberal Democrat, 3 Labour, 1 Green Both those results (in areas where the Liberals have had,in my lifetime, decent support) are yet more evidence that the Liberals are now an utter irrelevancy. Not even mustering a candidate in Scarborough is particularly poor. This is an absolutely idiotic statement which shows absolutely no knowledge of the electoral history of this ward . Since 1970 the Lib Dems have fought the ward just twice , 1 candidate for the 2 seats in 2007 and 2 joint Lib/SDP candidates in 1983 . It is a ward with zero Lib Dem history at all let alone 1 of any success . |
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Post by jigger on Sept 2, 2017 13:20:02 GMT
Both those results (in areas where the Liberals have had,in my lifetime, decent support) are yet more evidence that the Liberals are now an utter irrelevancy. Not even mustering a candidate in Scarborough is particularly poor. This is an absolutely idiotic statement which shows absolutely no knowledge of the electoral history of this ward . Since 1970 the Lib Dems have fought the ward just twice , 1 candidate for the 2 seats in 2007 and 2 joint Lib/SDP candidates in 1983 . It is a ward with zero Lib Dem history at all let alone 1 of any success . But Scarborough as a constituency has been an area when the Liberals for many years were the main threat to the Conservative Party. Whether they had a history in that particular ward is not the point. The point is that the Liberal are now a total irrelevance even in areas of the country where they used to have decent support. It looks like the Liberals as a political force (though obviously not Liberalism as a philosophy) is dying in this country. The fact that they lost support even though they claim to be a party of the Centre and despite the Conservative Party moving to the right and the Labour Party moving to the left since the last election and the Brexit vote having occurred demonstrates this perfectly. There must have been millions of people who consider themselves Liberals who cast their ballot in favour of the Conservative Party or the Labour Party in June. The Liberals really are on death-row - it remains to be seen whether it will be the Conservative Party or the Labour Party who will be the executioner. |
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The Bishop
Labour
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Post by The Bishop on Sept 2, 2017 13:24:56 GMT
Oh I have no doubt that the LibDems (or, in extremis, some similar successor) are always going to be around in some form - if they didn't die in the 1950s they won't now.
It could be some time - maybe a very long time - before they again enjoy pre-2010 levels of support, however.
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Post by jigger on Sept 2, 2017 13:37:01 GMT
Oh I have no doubt that the LibDems (or, in extremis, some similar successor) are always going to be around in some form - if they didn't die in the 1950s they won't now. It could be some time - maybe a very long time - before they again enjoy pre-2010 levels of support, however. But they are in deep deep trouble. The fact that they become more unpopular in 2017 than in 2015, despite there being a gaping hole in the centre and despite being vociferous against Brexit really shows how screwed they are. I have no doubt that there will be Liberals in this country for ever more. Before the election I would have agreed with you that the Liberals would continue politically, but after their utterly dire election result, I have come to the conclusion that the end is nigh for them. I may be wrong of course. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2017 16:11:06 GMT
They may well have died if it weren't for Jo Grimond. But who is that their Jo Grimond of today? People seem to be pinning their hopes on Laura Moran
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 2, 2017 17:41:36 GMT
They may well have died if it weren't for Jo Grimond. But who is that their Jo Grimond of today? People seem to be pinning their hopes on Laura Moran Which isn't her name. Which may underline the point. (And I think Swindon* fits the bill more effectively.) * Error for effect. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 2, 2017 17:50:05 GMT
This is an absolutely idiotic statement which shows absolutely no knowledge of the electoral history of this ward . Since 1970 the Lib Dems have fought the ward just twice , 1 candidate for the 2 seats in 2007 and 2 joint Lib/SDP candidates in 1983 . It is a ward with zero Lib Dem history at all let alone 1 of any success . But Scarborough as a constituency has been an area when the Liberals for many years were the main threat to the Conservative Party. Whether they had a history in that particular ward is not the point. The point is that the Liberal are now a total irrelevance even in areas of the country where they used to have decent support. It looks like the Liberals as a political force (though obviously not Liberalism as a philosophy) is dying in this country. The fact that they lost support even though they claim to be a party of the Centre and despite the Conservative Party moving to the right and the Labour Party moving to the left since the last election and the Brexit vote having occurred demonstrates this perfectly. There must have been millions of people who consider themselves Liberals who cast their ballot in favour of the Conservative Party or the Labour Party in June. The Liberals really are on death-row - it remains to be seen whether it will be the Conservative Party or the Labour Party who will be the executioner. But is it right to assume that Labour and the Tories moving further left/right automatically aids a centre party? (Whatever "centre" means in this context.) Is it not equally likely that Corbyn e.g. persuaded Lib Dem/ Conservative waverers to vote Conservative? |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Sept 2, 2017 17:54:25 GMT
Oh I have no doubt that the LibDems (or, in extremis, some similar successor) are always going to be around in some form - if they didn't die in the 1950s they won't now. It could be some time - maybe a very long time - before they again enjoy pre-2010 levels of support, however. But they are in deep deep trouble. The fact that they become more unpopular in 2017 than in 2015, despite there being a gaping hole in the centre and despite being vociferous against Brexit really shows how screwed they are. I have no doubt that there will be Liberals in this country for ever more. Before the election I would have agreed with you that the Liberals would continue politically, but after their utterly dire election result, I have come to the conclusion that the end is nigh for them. I may be wrong of course.I have been around politics long enough to have read (premature) obituaries for all three of the major UK parties; even the Conservatives. Times are hard for us. On the other hand my own constituency, and - I learnt this week - at least one of our neighbouring constituencies, have their highest ever membership. |
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 2, 2017 18:10:47 GMT
But is it right to assume that Labour and the Tories moving further left/right automatically aids a centre party? (Whatever "centre" means in this context.) Is it not equally likely that Corbyn e.g. persuaded Lib Dem/ Conservative waverers to vote Conservative? Quite right ,and the reverse is also true-the awfulness of the Tories under May drives people towards Labour. But those sort of things driving people from the centre to the periphery tend to be short lived. I am sure Jigger is quite wrong if he thinks this is for the long term. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2017 18:25:35 GMT
we do seem to have returned to 2 party politics for the foreseeable future imo which is as much a surprise to me as anyone else as like most people I thought multi party politics in the UK was here for good. I would agree with John Curtice analysis though that hung parliaments will be the norm. It does beg what the point of 2 party politics is if it does not produce 'strong government'. I guess that's the consequence of a 2 party democracy with 2 parties that no one wants.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Sept 2, 2017 18:35:18 GMT
lol her name isn't laura after all!
Problem with Jo Swinson is the baggage she has from her coalition days. She couldn't even make a point about how unfair tribunal fees were, rightly so imo, without being roundly mocked few defending their introduction in government. If she were leader she would struggle to win over the 60% of Lib Dem 2010 voters that have voted Labour in 2015 and 2017 with centre left policies without extracts of her coalition days being dragged up again.
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Post by yellowperil on Sept 2, 2017 18:39:14 GMT
we do seem to have returned to 2 party politics for the foreseeable future imo which is as much a surprise to me as anyone else as like most people I thought multi party politics in the UK was here for good. I would agree with John Curtice analysis though that hung parliaments will be the norm. It does beg what the point of 2 party politics is if it does not produce 'strong government'. I guess that's the consequence of a 2 party democracy with 2 parties that no one wants.I do like your points I've highlighted without conceding the point about what is in the long (or even medium) term - but then "the foreseeable future" may not last a week at present, as those of us on the prediction thread may soon find out |
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