New Zealand General Election 2017

[timrollpickering]

It couldn't be.

His Ego is surely big enough for its own seat?

[maxque]

And Labour got it.

Jacinda Ardern will become Prime Minister.

[mondialito]

Congratulations uhurasmazda!

[Andrew_S]

Oct 19, 2017 7:23:59 GMT @pjones said:

I was watching some clips of the New Zealand Parliament. I see that because of the Flag issue in that country that New Zealand first have borrowed the gimmick of UKIP MEPs and all put little New Zealand flags on their deskss

I was lucky enough to go on a tour of the New Zealand Parliament in August last year. It felt like we were practically walking through the whole place, unlike what happens when you visit Westminster. There were about 8 people on the tour which was probably better than one with a large number.

[mboy]

Ardern confirmed that NZ First’s nine MPs would have four cabinet roles and one junior role outside cabinet, though details of portfolios will be published next week. She said Peters was considering whether to accept her offer to become deputy PM.

Well played Peters...that's quite a haul of goodies!

The Labour/NZ First coalition government will be a minority one, with a combined 55 seats, and will rely on a confidence and supply deal with the Green party’s eight MPs.

That's a fair gamble, IMO. National will have 1 more seat, so the govt will lose every non-S&C vote unless they can peel off 2 more Greens every single time. That gives the Greens veto power over literally everything, which is far more power than they would have had within coalition.

[The Bishop]

Oct 19, 2017 6:37:41 GMT maxque said:

And Labour got it.

Jacinda Ardern will become Prime Minister.

A slight surprise, perhaps?

Looking forward to what she does now, it would never have been possible without Labour's late surge.

In view of what happened both in NZ and here, the conventional wisdom of many political scientists that "campaigns don't matter" is going to have to be revised I think.

[Deleted]

I think that maybe true of here if it is only the exception that proves the rule, as someone pointed out to me; the remarkable surge could only happen in the collapse of one leaders popularity and the surge of another. We may never see that again.

New Zealand seems to have gone through their own version Cleggmania. This happened in Australia twice I think, where Labor installed a new leader snd turned their polling round to win.

[mrpastelito]

Oct 19, 2017 9:08:45 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 19, 2017 6:37:41 GMT maxque said:

And Labour got it.

Jacinda Ardern will become Prime Minister.

A slight surprise, perhaps?

Looking forward to what she does now, it would never have been possible without Labour's late surge.

In view of what happened both in NZ and here, the conventional wisdom of many political scientists that "campaigns don't matter" is going to have to be revised I think.

"The best organised campaign wins" - Joseph Napolitan.

[mondialito]

Oct 19, 2017 9:17:02 GMT @priceofdawn said:

I think that maybe true of here if it is only the exception that proves the rule, as someone pointed out to me; the remarkable surge could only happen in the collapse of one leaders popularity and the surge of another. We may never see that again.

New Zealand seems to have gone through their own version Cleggmania. This happened in Australia twice I think, where Labor installed a new leader snd turned their polling round to win.

1983 is the big example.

[timrollpickering]

Oct 19, 2017 7:23:59 GMT @pjones said:

I was watching some clips of the New Zealand Parliament. I see that because of the Flag issue in that country that New Zealand first have borrowed the gimmick of UKIP MEPs and all put little New Zealand flags on their deskss

I seem to recall that began with the Australian Liberals during Keating's assault on the flag.

Why does a New Zealand nationalist party so often resort to wanting to doing politics in a more Australian manner?!

[mboy]

Oct 19, 2017 9:17:02 GMT @priceofdawn said:

New Zealand seems to have gone through their own version Cleggmania.

With the critical difference that Cleggmania never actually materialised at the polls...

[Adam in Stroud]

Oct 19, 2017 9:58:18 GMT mboy said:

Oct 19, 2017 9:17:02 GMT @priceofdawn said:

New Zealand seems to have gone through their own version Cleggmania.

With the critical difference that Cleggmania never actually materialised at the polls...

Can anyone give a link to the poll movement during the 2010 election? My recollection was that the LD final result was a fair bit up on opinion polls immediately before the campaign started.

[mboy]

But it was 2% down on a poll directly before the debates - IIRC an ICM poll put us on 26% just before - and level with the average polls just before the debates.

[jigger]

Oct 19, 2017 9:08:45 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 19, 2017 6:37:41 GMT maxque said:

And Labour got it.

Jacinda Ardern will become Prime Minister.

A slight surprise, perhaps?

Looking forward to what she does now, it would never have been possible without Labour's late surge.

In view of what happened both in NZ and here, the conventional wisdom of many political scientists that "campaigns don't matter" is going to have to be revised I think.

Another conventional wisdom of many political scientists/commentariat that will certainly have to be revised is the line that the two-party system in this country was on a continuous and inevitable decline - see the New Statesman leader from 6 November 2014 as a good example. There is nothing that has made me happier politically that to see that cretinous claim blown out of the water.

[mboy]

Yes - down with choice!

[Adam in Stroud]

Oct 19, 2017 9:08:45 GMT The Bishop said:

Oct 19, 2017 6:37:41 GMT maxque said:

And Labour got it.

Jacinda Ardern will become Prime Minister.

A slight surprise, perhaps?

Looking forward to what she does now, it would never have been possible without Labour's late surge.

In view of what happened both in NZ and here, the conventional wisdom of many political scientists that "campaigns don't matter" is going to have to be revised I think.

The BES found that most people in Britain had made their minds up before the campaign started (and also that Brexit was the biggest issue) - both contrary to received wisdom. The trick was in the way that manifested itself - it didn't come out in a move of Remainers to the LDs nor in an unstoppable surge of Leavers to May. Instead there was a significant rise in Tory vote share from Leavers but offset by a big swing of Remainers behind Labour. The key being the large number of Remainers who felt Labour's fudge on Brexit was closer to their view than either May's "red white and blue"  Brexit or the LD 2nd Ref approach. (Plus IMO a strong body of Remainers who in effect accepted Farron's "we need a strong opposition" line but concluded that only Labour could do that.)

I'm not entirely convinced by the BES line personally, there seemed such a big shift in Labour's performance compared to in the county elections and the by-elections immediately before the GE (though I accept that none of those were directly about Brexit in the way that the GE was.) I'd have thought Trump's win was a big argument for the importance of elections because it showed how to win the election while losing the popular vote (though you might say that the key campaign was Clinton's rather than Trump's).

[jigger]

Oct 19, 2017 10:07:27 GMT Adam in Stroud said:

Oct 19, 2017 9:58:18 GMT mboy said:

With the critical difference that Cleggmania never actually materialised at the polls...

Can anyone give a link to the poll movement during the 2010 election? My recollection was that the LD final result was a fair bit up on opinion polls immediately before the campaign started.

Your recollection is correct (depending on  how you define "fair bit"). The Liberal Democrats were polling at no better than 20% in the average of polls before the general election was called and they ended up on just under 24% of the vote.

[Adam in Stroud]

Oct 19, 2017 10:16:49 GMT mboy said:

But it was 2% down on a poll directly before the debates - IIRC an ICM poll put us on 26% just before - and level with the average polls just before the debates.

Thanks, that's interesting.

I do recall that my own Clegg moment - being an LD voter but neither a party member nor a big fan of Clegg personally at that point - was not in the debates but much earlier during radio interviews. He just sounded much more confident and calm than I'd expected. I thought something similar about the first speech I heard from Corbyn in the 2017 GE.

[Deleted]

Tbf cleggmania prevented cameron from achieving his maj

Is Jacinda a socialist?

[Davıd Boothroyd]

Jacinda Ardern used to work in the Cabinet Office in the Blair and Brown governments - you can see a mention on page 5 here: webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20090609052836/http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file49881.pdf

At the same time she was President of the International Union of Socialist Youth.