Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 5, 2017 22:46:53 GMT
After the 2015 GE Wrexham MP Ian Lucas had a majority of 1831 After the 2017 GE Wrexham MP Ian Lucas had a majority of 1832  I know someone who sometimes describes himself as from Wrexham and didn't vote for Labour in 2015, but says he did so last month. Unfortunately I also recall that if pushed, he'll let slip that he actually lives in Ruabon and will thus have voted in the Clwyd South constituency. |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 11, 2017 12:03:55 GMT
Is there a list of constituencies by area available anywhere? It would be interesting to see how the average area of constituencies won by each party has changed as a result of the election. The Tories winning all those seats in north-east Scotland for example must have increased their average constituency area a bit.
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Post by robert1 on Jul 11, 2017 12:14:56 GMT
Losing Kensington and Battersea will also have had a similar effect, though from the opposite direction!
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 11, 2017 14:27:48 GMT
Losing Kensington and Battersea will also have had a similar effect, though from the opposite direction! Indeed. It would be interesting to see a graph over time with Tory seats by area. I suspect the average area has been going up most of the time since 1964, with one or two exceptions like 2010. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 11, 2017 16:37:42 GMT
Is there a list of constituencies by area available anywhere? I sometimes wonder that, but I also sometimes wonder what the definition is. The new rules on constituency boundaries specifies a maximum area of 13,000 km^2, but I don't know if there is any agreed definition of how the area is defined or surveyed, e.g. whether the area includes the low-tide or high-tide line, or the sea wall. |
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Post by No Offence Alan on Jul 11, 2017 19:49:07 GMT
If we had equal-area constituencies, there would hardly ever be any need for boundary changes - just a bit of coastal erosion or silt deposition to take account of!
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 11, 2017 20:02:41 GMT
If we had equal-area constituencies, there would hardly ever be any need for boundary changes - just a bit of coastal erosion or silt deposition to take account of! The areas could always stay the same and each MP's vote in Parliament could be assigned a value based on the electorate, such as 1.5 in the Isle of Wight for instance. |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 11, 2017 20:25:05 GMT
If we had equal-area constituencies, there would hardly ever be any need for boundary changes - just a bit of coastal erosion or silt deposition to take account of! The areas could always stay the same and each MP's vote in Parliament could be assigned a value based on the electorate, such as 1.5 in the Isle of Wight for instance. As it happens, the Isle of Wight is exactly the right size for a constituency under an equal-area criterion (assuming the number of MPs remains at just over 600 ish). |
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myth11
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Post by myth11 on Jul 11, 2017 20:33:52 GMT
If we had equal-area constituencies, there would hardly ever be any need for boundary changes - just a bit of coastal erosion or silt deposition to take account of! The areas could always stay the same and each MP's vote in Parliament could be assigned a value based on the electorate, such as 1.5 in the Isle of Wight for instance. You could use the amount of votes such as 27000 votes equals 27 votes in parliament but i am starting to like the German system which has advantage of making gerrymandering a waste of time as what you gain in the constituencies you give back on the list. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 11, 2017 21:33:58 GMT
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Post by Lord Twaddleford on Jul 11, 2017 23:04:45 GMT
The areas could always stay the same and each MP's vote in Parliament could be assigned a value based on the electorate, such as 1.5 in the Isle of Wight for instance. You could use the amount of votes such as 27000 votes equals 27 votes in parliament but i am starting to like the German system which has advantage of making gerrymandering a waste of time as what you gain in the constituencies you give back on the list. Gerrymandering can still be mildly effective under the German electoral system, albeit if only for the smaller parties. There's a threshold of either 5% of the list vote, or three constituencies, in order to win additional seats- the constituency boundaries can theoretically be drawn to disadvantage a smaller party with concentrated support but little nationwide appeal. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 14, 2017 9:26:47 GMT
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 14, 2017 12:25:33 GMT
You could use the amount of votes such as 27000 votes equals 27 votes in parliament but i am starting to like the German system which has advantage of making gerrymandering a waste of time as what you gain in the constituencies you give back on the list. Gerrymandering can still be mildly effective under the German electoral system, albeit if only for the smaller parties. There's a threshold of either 5% of the list vote, or three constituencies, in order to win additional seats- the constituency boundaries can theoretically be drawn to disadvantage a smaller party with concentrated support but little nationwide appeal. Indeed ISTR a row about the boundaries in Berlin being drawn to apparently confine the PDS to just two constituencies and thus no list seats. It may have played a role in the merger that created The Left. |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 14, 2017 19:57:52 GMT
Gerrymandering can still be mildly effective under the German electoral system, albeit if only for the smaller parties. There's a threshold of either 5% of the list vote, or three constituencies, in order to win additional seats- the constituency boundaries can theoretically be drawn to disadvantage a smaller party with concentrated support but little nationwide appeal. Indeed ISTR a row about the boundaries in Berlin being drawn to apparently confine the PDS to just two constituencies and thus no list seats. It may have played a role in the merger that created The Left. I wasn't following German politics closely enough to know there was a dispute about it at the time, but I see that there was a local government reform that came into effect at the start of 2001 which reduced the partition-era 23 districts to 12, which had similar electorate numbers (at least initially). It just so happened that Berlin was entitled to 12 of the 299 FPTP seats... but the new constituencies suspiciously didn't follow the exact borders of the enlarged districts. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 14, 2017 21:12:50 GMT
Labour got less than 10,000 votes in just 33 constituencies in England: Eastbourne 4,671 Westmorland & Lonsdale 4,783 Norfolk North 5,180 Cheltenham 5,408 Richmond Park 5,773 Winchester 6,007 Lewes 6,060 Thornbury & Yate 6,112 Twickenham 6,114 Cornwall North 6,151 Dorset Mid & Poole North 6,423 Devon East 6,857 Devon North 7,063 Wells 7,129 Bath 7,279 St Ives 7,298 Yeovil 7,418 Oxford West & Abingdon 7,573 Surrey South West 7,606 Mole Valley 7,864 Newbury 8,596 Hazel Grove 9,036 Kingston & Surbiton 9,203 Torbay 9,310 Carshalton & Wallington 9,360 Wiltshire North 9,399 Hampshire East 9,411 Herefordshire North 9,495 Romsey & Southampton North 9,614 Taunton Deane 9,689 New Forest West 9,739 Meon Valley 9,932 Hampshire North East 9,982 I had to find out the equivalent statistic for the Conservatives, thanks to Wikipedia's 'sort' tool (by clicking on the arrows below the Con heading), but there were more than I thought so I won't reproduce the list here. On my count, 86 constituencies (Excluding NI) had fewer than 10,000 Conservative votes, but I wouldn't mind a 'recount' because as said, a lot more than I thought so may have mis-counted along the way! I don't think they lost any deposits, though (except in NI!), unlike in 2015 where I'm sure they did in Liverpool Walton and somewhere in Glasgow. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017,_by_parliamentary_constituency Finally, interesting statistic, in Liverpool West Derby, Steve Radford, a 'Liberal' candidate managed to get more votes in 2015 and 2017 than the Liberal Democrat candidate, and in 2015 he managed to keep his deposit unlike the LD candidate on both occasions, Paul Twigger. Possible confusion or was he really that popular/LDs that unpopular? |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Jul 14, 2017 21:16:26 GMT
Finally, interesting statistic, in Liverpool West Derby, Steve Radford, a 'Liberal' candidate managed to get more votes in 2015 and 2017 than the Liberal Democrat candidate, and in 2015 he managed to keep his deposit unlike the LD candidate on both occasions, Paul Twigger. Possible confusion or was he really that popular/LDs that unpopular? Radford is an idiosyncratic and somewhat popular local councillor with a strong personal vote. He has done everything to ensure that he's not mistaken for the LD candidate! |
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Post by mick745 on Jul 14, 2017 21:54:21 GMT
Labour got less than 10,000 votes in just 33 constituencies in England: Eastbourne 4,671 Westmorland & Lonsdale 4,783 Norfolk North 5,180 Cheltenham 5,408 Richmond Park 5,773 Winchester 6,007 Lewes 6,060 Thornbury & Yate 6,112 Twickenham 6,114 Cornwall North 6,151 Dorset Mid & Poole North 6,423 Devon East 6,857 Devon North 7,063 Wells 7,129 Bath 7,279 St Ives 7,298 Yeovil 7,418 Oxford West & Abingdon 7,573 Surrey South West 7,606 Mole Valley 7,864 Newbury 8,596 Hazel Grove 9,036 Kingston & Surbiton 9,203 Torbay 9,310 Carshalton & Wallington 9,360 Wiltshire North 9,399 Hampshire East 9,411 Herefordshire North 9,495 Romsey & Southampton North 9,614 Taunton Deane 9,689 New Forest West 9,739 Meon Valley 9,932 Hampshire North East 9,982 I had to find out the equivalent statistic for the Conservatives, thanks to Wikipedia's 'sort' tool (by clicking on the arrows below the Con heading), but there were more than I thought so I won't reproduce the list here. On my count, 85 constituencies (Excluding NI) had fewer than 10,000 Conservative votes, but I wouldn't mind a 'recount' because as said, a lot more than I thought so may have mis-counted along the way! I don't think they lost any deposits, though (except in NI!), unlike in 2015 where I'm sure they did in Liverpool Walton and somewhere in Glasgow. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017,_by_parliamentary_constituency Finally, interesting statistic, in Liverpool West Derby, Steve Radford, a 'Liberal' candidate managed to get more votes in 2015 and 2017 than the Liberal Democrat candidate, and in 2015 he managed to keep his deposit unlike the LD candidate on both occasions, Paul Twigger. Possible confusion or was he really that popular/LDs that unpopular? I think the equivalent figure for the Conservatives was fewer than 10,000 votes in 47 seats in England: 1 Islington South and Finsbury 9925 2 Bristol West 9877 3 West Ham 9837 4 Leeds Central 9755 5 Ealing, Southall 9630 6 Leyton and Wanstead 9627 7 Middlesbrough 9531 8 Garston and Halewood 9450 9 Barnsley Central 9436 10 Kingston upon Hull North 9363 11 Bradford East 9291 12 Hornsey and Wood Green 9246 13 Newcastle Upon Tyne Central 9134 14 Cambridge 9133 15 Leeds North West 9097 16 Sheffield, Brightside and Hillsborough 9050 17 Newcastle Upon Tyne East 8866 18 Birmingham, Yardley 8824 19 Blackley and Broughton 8657 20 Nottingham East 8512 21 Preston 8487 22 Easington 8260 23 Birmingham, Hall Green 8199 24 Birkenhead 8044 25 Bermondsey and Old Southwark 7581 26 Bethnal Green and Bow 7576 27 Lewisham, Deptford 7562 28 Bradford West 7542 29 Camberwell and Peckham 7349 30 East Ham 7241 31 Hackney North and Stoke Newington 7126 32 Manchester Central 7045 33 Islington North 6871 34 Walthamstow 6776 35 Birmingham, Hodge Hill 6580 36 Sheffield Central 6215 37 Bootle 6059 38 Hackney South and Shoreditch 6043 39 Tottenham 5665 40 Manchester, Withington 5530 41 Birmingham, Ladywood 5452 42 Liverpool, Wavertree 5251 43 Knowsley 5137 44 Liverpool, Riverside 4652 45 Liverpool, West Derby 4463 46 Liverpool, Walton 3624 47 Manchester, Gorton 3355 |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 14, 2017 22:18:44 GMT
Labour got less than 10,000 votes in just 33 constituencies in England: Eastbourne 4,671 Westmorland & Lonsdale 4,783 Norfolk North 5,180 Cheltenham 5,408 Richmond Park 5,773 Winchester 6,007 Lewes 6,060 Thornbury & Yate 6,112 Twickenham 6,114 Cornwall North 6,151 Dorset Mid & Poole North 6,423 Devon East 6,857 Devon North 7,063 Wells 7,129 Bath 7,279 St Ives 7,298 Yeovil 7,418 Oxford West & Abingdon 7,573 Surrey South West 7,606 Mole Valley 7,864 Newbury 8,596 Hazel Grove 9,036 Kingston & Surbiton 9,203 Torbay 9,310 Carshalton & Wallington 9,360 Wiltshire North 9,399 Hampshire East 9,411 Herefordshire North 9,495 Romsey & Southampton North 9,614 Taunton Deane 9,689 New Forest West 9,739 Meon Valley 9,932 Hampshire North East 9,982 I had to find out the equivalent statistic for the Conservatives, thanks to Wikipedia's 'sort' tool (by clicking on the arrows below the Con heading), but there were more than I thought so I won't reproduce the list here. On my count, 85 constituencies (Excluding NI) had fewer than 10,000 Conservative votes, but I wouldn't mind a 'recount' because as said, a lot more than I thought so may have mis-counted along the way! I don't think they lost any deposits, though (except in NI!), unlike in 2015 where I'm sure they did in Liverpool Walton and somewhere in Glasgow. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017,_by_parliamentary_constituency Finally, interesting statistic, in Liverpool West Derby, Steve Radford, a 'Liberal' candidate managed to get more votes in 2015 and 2017 than the Liberal Democrat candidate, and in 2015 he managed to keep his deposit unlike the LD candidate on both occasions, Paul Twigger. Possible confusion or was he really that popular/LDs that unpopular? My results spreadsheet is giving 86 as the answer for Britain and 47 in England. The LDs got 10,000 votes or more in 49 seats in England and 56 in Britain. |
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Post by timrollpickering on Jul 14, 2017 22:23:48 GMT
Finally, interesting statistic, in Liverpool West Derby, Steve Radford, a 'Liberal' candidate managed to get more votes in 2015 and 2017 than the Liberal Democrat candidate, and in 2015 he managed to keep his deposit unlike the LD candidate on both occasions, Paul Twigger. Possible confusion or was he really that popular/LDs that unpopular? Radford is an idiosyncratic and somewhat popular local councillor with a strong personal vote. He has done everything to ensure that he's not mistaken for the LD candidate! Radford has stood in the seat at every election since 1997 but his vote has been falling for years; this year he had a small uptick of 101 votes but his fourth % decrease in a row. His heyday was in 1997 & 2001 when he took second place each time. However locally his vote in Tuebrook & Stoneycroft ward is strong - the Continuity Liberals have won it at all recent elections bar 2015, and Radford routinely does much better than other Liberal candidates. The Liberals have an identity across the city but their vote isn't that strong - last time the only other ward with more than 10% was the neighbouring West Derby with 14%. Until Radford retires ignore all speculation about the Lib Dems renaming themselves "the Liberals" - the name won't be available and there seems no likelihood of an absorption. The West Derby constituency is a seat the Lib Dems & predecessors haven't been a significant factor in since 1924 (when they lost the seat gained in a fluke the previous year with an evaporation of two-thirds of their vote). Even in 1983 the sitting MP got just 18% for the SDP. |
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bsjmcr
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Post by bsjmcr on Jul 14, 2017 22:53:14 GMT
I had to find out the equivalent statistic for the Conservatives, thanks to Wikipedia's 'sort' tool (by clicking on the arrows below the Con heading), but there were more than I thought so I won't reproduce the list here. On my count, 85 constituencies (Excluding NI) had fewer than 10,000 Conservative votes, but I wouldn't mind a 'recount' because as said, a lot more than I thought so may have mis-counted along the way! I don't think they lost any deposits, though (except in NI!), unlike in 2015 where I'm sure they did in Liverpool Walton and somewhere in Glasgow. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017,_by_parliamentary_constituency Finally, interesting statistic, in Liverpool West Derby, Steve Radford, a 'Liberal' candidate managed to get more votes in 2015 and 2017 than the Liberal Democrat candidate, and in 2015 he managed to keep his deposit unlike the LD candidate on both occasions, Paul Twigger. Possible confusion or was he really that popular/LDs that unpopular? I think the equivalent figure for the Conservatives was fewer than 10,000 votes in 47 seats in England: Thanks for this, I hadn't spotted the original Labour one was only for England and not UK-wide. Including Scotland and a handful in Wales it's a lot more again, but still not as many as the Conservative's 86, I got 55 in total. And thanks to your list I've just realised M'cr Gorton now has the lowest Tory vote in England, beating Liverpool, so in the words of Mr Burnham, Manchester 1, Liverpool Nil
(Well, not quite I guess, Liverpool/Knowsley/Bootle still got more Labour votes...) |
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