Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jun 26, 2017 6:19:53 GMT
Does anyone have a list of seats ranked by swing (ie highest Con -> Lab to highest Lab -> Con? Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere on the forum and I've missed it. Top Five Lab to Con swings: 1) Ochil and South Perthshire: 14.59% 2) Aberdeen South: 12.75% 3) Renfrewshire East: 12.67% 4) Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock: 11.85% 5) Gordon: 11.56% Top Five non Scottish Lab to Con swings: 1) Ashfield: 8.86% 2) Bolsover: 7.70% 3) Clacton: 6.80% 4) Mansfield: 6.68% 5) Waveney: 6.44% Top Five Con to Lab swings: 1) Bristol West: 15.87% 2) Hove: 15.10% 3) Hampstead and Kilburn: 12.27% 4) Ealing Central and Acton: 12.21% 5) Truro and Falmouth: 11.24% |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Jun 26, 2017 9:04:10 GMT
Does anyone have a list of seats ranked by swing (ie highest Con -> Lab to highest Lab -> Con? Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere on the forum and I've missed it. Top Five Lab to Con swings: 1) Ochil and South Perthshire: 14.59% 2) Aberdeen South: 12.75% 3) Renfrewshire East: 12.67% 4) Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock: 11.85% 5) Gordon: 11.56% Top Five non Scottish Lab to Con swings: 1) Ashfield: 8.86% 2) Bolsover: 7.70% 3) Clacton: 6.80% 4) Mansfield: 6.68% 5) Waveney: 6.44% Top Five Con to Lab swings: 1) Bristol West: 15.87% 2) Hove: 15.10% 3) Hampstead and Kilburn: 12.27% 4) Ealing Central and Acton: 12.21% 5) Truro and Falmouth: 11.24% Thanks Harry. Are you able to extend the Con to Lab swings up to and including Harrow West? |
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Post by greatkingrat on Jun 26, 2017 9:15:32 GMT
Change in share of vote, GE2017 compared to GE2015 (Great Britain): Sheet 1: all data listed by constituency Sheet 2: ranked change in Con share Sheet 3: ranked change in Lab share Sheet 4: ranked change in LD share Sheet 5: ranked change in UKIP share Sheet 6: ranked change in Green share Sheet 7: ranked change in SNP share Sheet 8: ranked change in PC share Sheet 9: ranked swing from Con to Lab docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UWhZhZlnNE6oVmg_n1ayf-TtV0brsoaA4NawWz_GI6k/edit#gid=0Harrow West is no 7 on this list. |
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Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
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Post by Harry Hayfield on Jun 26, 2017 17:15:01 GMT
Change in share of vote, GE2017 compared to GE2015 (Great Britain): Sheet 1: all data listed by constituency Sheet 2: ranked change in Con share Sheet 3: ranked change in Lab share Sheet 4: ranked change in LD share Sheet 5: ranked change in UKIP share Sheet 6: ranked change in Green share Sheet 7: ranked change in SNP share Sheet 8: ranked change in PC share Sheet 9: ranked swing from Con to Lab docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UWhZhZlnNE6oVmg_n1ayf-TtV0brsoaA4NawWz_GI6k/edit#gid=0Harrow West is no 7 on this list. Yep, Harrow West is indeed number seven on the list with a 10.85% swing to Lab with Hammersmith at number six on a 11.05% swing |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Jun 26, 2017 21:44:16 GMT
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 26, 2017 21:49:46 GMT
Change in share of vote, GE2017 compared to GE2015 (Great Britain): Sheet 1: all data listed by constituency Sheet 2: ranked change in Con share Sheet 3: ranked change in Lab share Sheet 4: ranked change in LD share Sheet 5: ranked change in UKIP share Sheet 6: ranked change in Green share Sheet 7: ranked change in SNP share Sheet 8: ranked change in PC share Sheet 9: ranked swing from Con to Lab docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UWhZhZlnNE6oVmg_n1ayf-TtV0brsoaA4NawWz_GI6k/edit#gid=0Harrow West is no 7 on this list. If anyone notices any mistakes let me know. |
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Sibboleth
Labour
'Sit on my finger, sing in my ear, O littleblood.'
Posts: 16,028
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Post by Sibboleth on Jun 26, 2017 21:56:52 GMT
Thing to note about swing; we're apt to think of it as representing movement between the parties in question. There was not much of that this year. Therefore, be even more careful than usual of projecting it into the future (i.e. don't).
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 30, 2017 21:08:48 GMT
Do you have the vote share changes since 1970 for these groups of counties? Using the regions as a base...since 1970 there's been an 11% swing to Labour in Greater London and 10% in the North West. The East Midlands and East of England have seen 5% swings to the Conservatives. Rest of England hasn't swung much (2% to Tories in the South West, 1% or less in the other regions). Vote shares from 1970 and 2017:- www.dropbox.com/s/me88o7a05f9ku3g/England%20Vote%20Share%201970%20%26%202017.png?dl=0Liberal candidates (lack of in 1970) distort. |
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Post by greenhert on Jun 30, 2017 22:42:56 GMT
The 10 candidates with the fewest votes in 2017:
10=. Joe Westnidge, Social Democratic Party, 38 votes, Sheffield Central/Mark Shuker, Compass Party, 38 votes, Worcester.
9. Gavan Reynolds, Independent, 37 votes, North Down. 8. Daniel Lambert, Socialist Party of Great Britain, 32 votes, Battersea.
7. Rodney Maile, New Society of Worth, 31 votes, Preseli Pembrokeshire (he was also in the bottom 10 in 2015 with just 23 votes).
6. Dale Kalamazad, Independent, 29 votes, Hackney South & Shoreditch.
5. Peter Clifford, Communist League, 27 votes, Manchester Gorton.
4. Bill Martin, Socialist Party of Great Britain, 21 votes, Islington North.
3. Yemi Hailemariam, Independent, 16 votes, Maidenhead.
2. Andres Mendoza, Communist League, 7 votes, Islington North.
1. Bobby Smith, Give Me Back Elmo, 3 votes, Maidenhead (second time in a year he has polled fewer than 10 votes)
The Communist League set a record for lowest average votes for a political party (i.e. one that fielded more than 1 candidate), averaging just 17 votes this year. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Jul 1, 2017 3:10:34 GMT
Using the regions as a base...since 1970 there's been an 11% swing to Labour in Greater London and 10% in the North West. The East Midlands and East of England have seen 5% swings to the Conservatives. Rest of England hasn't swung much (2% to Tories in the South West, 1% or less in the other regions). Vote shares from 1970 and 2017:- www.dropbox.com/s/me88o7a05f9ku3g/England%20Vote%20Share%201970%20%26%202017.png?dl=0Liberal candidates (lack of in 1970) distort. Pardon my ignorance, but does this take into account changes between Durham and Yorkshire in terms of boundaries? |
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Post by manchesterman on Jul 4, 2017 21:30:18 GMT
After the 2015 GE Wrexham MP Ian Lucas had a majority of 1831 After the 2017 GE Wrexham MP Ian Lucas had a majority of 1832  |
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Post by finsobruce on Jul 4, 2017 21:56:53 GMT
After the 2015 GE Wrexham MP Ian Lucas had a majority of 1831 After the 2017 GE Wrexham MP Ian Lucas had a majority of 1832 Who is the Wrexham one? |
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Post by johnloony on Jul 4, 2017 22:43:34 GMT
After the 2015 GE Wrexham MP Ian Lucas had a majority of 1831 After the 2017 GE Wrexham MP Ian Lucas had a majority of 1832 Who is the Wrexham one? They both are. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jul 5, 2017 10:06:45 GMT
Pardon my ignorance, but does this take into account changes between Durham and Yorkshire in terms of boundaries? Sadly not. Best fit based upon 1970/2017 boundaries. Thought about comparing with the 1979 notionals but...that can wait. Apologies if already posted but an excellent paper by Matthew Goodwin & Oliver Heath:- www.matthewjgoodwin.org/uploads/6/4/0/2/64026337/goodwin-heath-26-06-17.pdf |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2017 10:08:55 GMT
Something "excellent" from Goodwin? That makes a pleasant change tbh.
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Jul 5, 2017 12:53:39 GMT
Quite amazed that June 8th didn't force Goodwin, Janan Ganesh, and Chris Deerin at the very least into permanent exile, never to write again.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2017 12:57:32 GMT
At least Goodwin was enough of a good sport to eat his book  |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Jul 5, 2017 13:09:13 GMT
Reminder that this was Ganesh in January  |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
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Post by The Bishop on Jul 5, 2017 13:58:40 GMT
Never forget - "thick as pig***t". That alone should have seen him shunned by respectable society.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jul 5, 2017 20:23:28 GMT
After the 2015 GE Wrexham MP Ian Lucas had a majority of 1831 After the 2017 GE Wrexham MP Ian Lucas had a majority of 1832 Lucy Allan's majority in Telford was 720 votes compared to 730 in 2015. |
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