Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135 
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Post by Foggy on Jun 21, 2017 0:48:33 GMT
'Less' with things measured by amount and 'fewer' with things measured by counting is a purely arbitrary and invented custom and isn't a rule in English grammar. Perhaps we should apply, to the details of grammatical correctness, the constitutional doctrine of Professor J.A.G. Griffith that "the constitution is what happens". Thus, any custom can become a "rule" if enough pedants and grammarians say so and insist on it, regardless of the existence or otherwise of historical roots and references to back it up. If we are to follow the Griffith doctrine, it means that the opposite will in fact turn out to be the case. Apparent errors, misuses of words and ignorance of the rules will cease to matter. The descriptivist lobby will win and we pedants shall not be able to hold back the tide. |
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,781
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jun 21, 2017 1:33:44 GMT
'Less' with things measured by amount and 'fewer' with things measured by counting is a purely arbitrary and invented custom and isn't a rule in English grammar. Perhaps we should apply, to the details of grammatical correctness, the constitutional doctrine of Professor J.A.G. Griffith that "the constitution is what happens". Thus, any custom can become a "rule" if enough pedants and grammarians say so and insist on it, regardless of the existence or otherwise of historical roots and references to back it up. It's a bit like the invention in the 19th century of an ancient culture of Welsh bards and druids, the resurrection of the Cornish language, or the addition of the letter P to the word "ptarmigan". I've started to be magnaminous (if that's the word) about the general movement from 'paid' to 'payed', as it moves it towards a more regular formation. play/played, stay/stayed, pay/payed. I'm waiting to see 'layed' pop up though, and it would take a pronounciation shift to get 'sayed' into common use. |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 21, 2017 11:10:45 GMT
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 22, 2017 9:04:29 GMT
The 'barometer constituencies' that have always voted for the winning national party since 1983:-
Amber Valley, Broxtowe, Calder Valley, Corby, Dartford, Gloucester, Harlow, Harrow East, Loughborough, Morecambe & Lunesdale, NW Leics, Northampton North, Pendle, Pudsey, Reading West, South Derbyshire, South Ribble, Stafford, Stevenage, South Thanet, Watford, Waveney.
Dartford and Pendle (Nelson & Colne) have backed the winning national party since 1964.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 22, 2017 10:28:19 GMT
Share of the vote in Great Britain:
Con 43.43%
Lab 41.02%
LD 7.56%
SNP 3.11%
UKIP 1.89%
Greens 1.65%
PC 0.52%
Others 0.81%
Some sources are quoting the Con share as 43.5%. This must be arrived at by including the Speaker's votes in the Conservative tally, which would give:
Con 43.54%
Lab 41.02%
LD 7.56%
SNP 3.11%
UKIP 1.89%
Greens 1.65%
PC 0.52%
Others 0.70%
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,946
Member is Online
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Post by The Bishop on Jun 22, 2017 10:33:42 GMT
Thank you for the GB statistics - they used to be the normally quoted numbers (as opposed to UK-wide) but that seemed to go by the wayside circa 2010.
I think the normal convention is that a sitting Speaker's votes are counted as "other" btw.
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Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
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Post by Deleted on Jun 22, 2017 13:10:12 GMT
Yes it's v annoying when all polls (to my knowledge) are based on GB share for the GB share to be almost never referred to after the election.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 22, 2017 16:52:24 GMT
Change in share of vote, GE2017 compared to GE2015 (Great Britain): Sheet 1: all data listed by constituency Sheet 2: ranked change in Con share Sheet 3: ranked change in Lab share Sheet 4: ranked change in LD share Sheet 5: ranked change in UKIP share Sheet 6: ranked change in Green share Sheet 7: ranked change in SNP share Sheet 8: ranked change in PC share Sheet 9: ranked swing from Con to Lab docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1UWhZhZlnNE6oVmg_n1ayf-TtV0brsoaA4NawWz_GI6k/edit#gid=0 |
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 23, 2017 0:17:29 GMT
I ought to add that I entered all the constituency results into a spreadsheet directly from the official council website results pages rather than using secondary sources in order to minimise any mistakes being replicated. I decided not to use the BritainElects spreadsheet because although it was generally accurate I did notice a number of minor errors. (I've sent them an email with the mistakes so they could correct them).
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Post by robert1 on Jun 23, 2017 8:04:33 GMT
Unless I have misunderstood something, Pendle/Nelson & Colne has not followed national trends since 1964. In 1992 it returned a Labour MP.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 23, 2017 8:37:58 GMT
Unless I have misunderstood something, Pendle/Nelson & Colne has not followed national trends since 1964. In 1992 it returned a Labour MP. Apols. You're correct. I'd forgotten how well Labour performed in East Lancs in 1992. |
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Post by LDCaerdydd on Jun 23, 2017 14:40:58 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 23, 2017 21:59:39 GMT
Constituencies won on a majority of the registered electorate:
1997: Lab 14. Total 14.
2001: None.
2005: None.
2010: None.
2015: Lab 2. Total 2.
2017: Lab 24, C 2. Total 26.
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Post by Andrew_S on Jun 23, 2017 22:04:08 GMT
Constituencies won on a majority of the registered electorate: 1997: Lab 14. Total 14. 2001: None. 2005: None. 2010: None. 2015: Lab 2. Total 2. 2017: Lab 24, C 2. Total 26. The Tories got 50.02% in NE Hampshire according to my figures. What was the other one? |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Jun 23, 2017 22:05:49 GMT
I have them on 50.6% in North East Hampshire, and 50.1% in Christchurch.
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 25, 2017 11:33:26 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Jun 25, 2017 16:46:34 GMT
Labour got less than 10,000 votes in just 33 constituencies in England: Eastbourne 4,671 Westmorland & Lonsdale 4,783 Norfolk North 5,180 Cheltenham 5,408 Richmond Park 5,773 Winchester 6,007 Lewes 6,060 Thornbury & Yate 6,112 Twickenham 6,114 Cornwall North 6,151 Dorset Mid & Poole North 6,423 Devon East 6,857 Devon North 7,063 Wells 7,129 Bath 7,279 St Ives 7,298 Yeovil 7,418 Oxford West & Abingdon 7,573 Surrey South West 7,606 Mole Valley 7,864 Newbury 8,596 Hazel Grove 9,036 Kingston & Surbiton 9,203 Torbay 9,310 Carshalton & Wallington 9,360 Wiltshire North 9,399 Hampshire East 9,411 Herefordshire North 9,495 Romsey & Southampton North 9,614 Taunton Deane 9,689 New Forest West 9,739 Meon Valley 9,932 Hampshire North East 9,982 Interesting, if not entirely unsurprising, that a good majority of those seats are either LD seats or LD target seats. If you factor in some possible tactical voting for the LD candidates by voters who'd normally vote Labour, that number could have been even lower! |
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clyde1998
SNP
Green (E&W) member; SNP supporter
Posts: 1,765
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Post by clyde1998 on Jun 25, 2017 17:22:10 GMT
Do you have the vote share changes since 1970 for these groups of counties? |
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Post by hullenedge on Jun 25, 2017 21:27:49 GMT
Do you have the vote share changes since 1970 for these groups of counties? Using the regions as a base...since 1970 there's been an 11% swing to Labour in Greater London and 10% in the North West. The East Midlands and East of England have seen 5% swings to the Conservatives. Rest of England hasn't swung much (2% to Tories in the South West, 1% or less in the other regions). |
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ColinJ
Labour
Living in the Past
Posts: 2,126
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Post by ColinJ on Jun 26, 2017 6:06:35 GMT
Does anyone have a list of seats ranked by swing (ie highest Con -> Lab to highest Lab -> Con?
Sorry if this has been posted elsewhere on the forum and I've missed it.
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