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Post by greenhert on Jul 14, 2017 23:12:54 GMT
I had to find out the equivalent statistic for the Conservatives, thanks to Wikipedia's 'sort' tool (by clicking on the arrows below the Con heading), but there were more than I thought so I won't reproduce the list here. On my count, 85 constituencies (Excluding NI) had fewer than 10,000 Conservative votes, but I wouldn't mind a 'recount' because as said, a lot more than I thought so may have mis-counted along the way! I don't think they lost any deposits, though (except in NI!), unlike in 2015 where I'm sure they did in Liverpool Walton and somewhere in Glasgow. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017,_by_parliamentary_constituency Finally, interesting statistic, in Liverpool West Derby, Steve Radford, a 'Liberal' candidate managed to get more votes in 2015 and 2017 than the Liberal Democrat candidate, and in 2015 he managed to keep his deposit unlike the LD candidate on both occasions, Paul Twigger. Possible confusion or was he really that popular/LDs that unpopular? My results spreadsheet is giving 86 as the answer for Britain and 47 in England. The LDs got 10,000 votes or more in 49 seats in England and 56 in Britain. I know which 49 in England:
Twickenham, Bath, Eastbourne, Kingston & Surbiton, Oxford West & Abingdon, North Norfolk, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Carshalton & Wallington (the seats in England they won) plus Richmond Park, Sutton & Cheam, St Albans, Winchester, St Ives, North Cornwall, Wells, Chippenham, Somerton & Frome, Mid Dorset & North Poole, Lewes, Taunton Deane, Yeovil, Cheltenham, Southport, Thornbury & Yate, Torbay, North Devon, Vauxhall, Leeds North West, Sheffield Hallam, Hornsey & Wood Green (exactly 10,000), Cheadle, Hazel Grove, Harrogate & Knaresborough, West Dorset, South East Cornwall, Torridge & West Devon, Newton Abbot, St Austell & Newquay, Mole Valley, Guildford, Eastleigh, Romsey & Southampton North, Newbury, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cambridge, Witney, Esher & Walton, South Cambridgeshire, and South East Cambridgeshire.
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J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
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Post by J.G.Harston on Jul 15, 2017 4:07:31 GMT
Radford is an idiosyncratic and somewhat popular local councillor with a strong personal vote. He has done everything to ensure that he's not mistaken for the LD candidate! Radford has stood in the seat at every election since 1997 but his vote has been falling for years; this year he had a small uptick of 101 votes but his fourth % decrease in a row. His heyday was in 1997 & 2001 when he took second place each time. However locally his vote in Tuebrook & Stoneycroft ward is strong - the Continuity Liberals have won it at all recent elections bar 2015, and Radford routinely does much better than other Liberal candidates. A few years ago the Liberals has a full slate of 30 council candidates vs the LibDem who only had about half a dozen, and IIRC resulted in the Liberals having a larger city-wide vote total than the LibDem. Checking Wiki, Steve Radford got 78% last year, that's Labour Heartland weigh the vote vote share! |
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
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Post by YL on Jul 15, 2017 6:58:19 GMT
My results spreadsheet is giving 86 as the answer for Britain and 47 in England. The LDs got 10,000 votes or more in 49 seats in England and 56 in Britain. I know which 49 in England:
Twickenham, Bath, Eastbourne, Kingston & Surbiton, Oxford West & Abingdon, North Norfolk, Westmorland & Lonsdale, Carshalton & Wallington (the seats in England they won) plus Richmond Park, Sutton & Cheam, St Albans, Winchester, St Ives, North Cornwall, Wells, Chippenham, Somerton & Frome, Mid Dorset & North Poole, Lewes, Taunton Deane, Yeovil, Cheltenham, Southport, Thornbury & Yate, Torbay, North Devon, Vauxhall, Leeds North West, Sheffield Hallam, Hornsey & Wood Green (exactly 10,000), Cheadle, Hazel Grove, Harrogate & Knaresborough, West Dorset, South East Cornwall, Torridge & West Devon, Newton Abbot, St Austell & Newquay, Mole Valley, Guildford, Eastleigh, Romsey & Southampton North, Newbury, Bermondsey & Old Southwark, Cambridge, Witney, Esher & Walton, South Cambridgeshire, and South East Cambridgeshire.
I've highlighted those without recent history of having a Lib Dem MP. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Jul 15, 2017 14:20:29 GMT
A decent proportion of South East Cambridgeshire used to be in the Isle of Ely (most of that seat is now NE Cambs, but Ely itself is in SE Cambs) which had a Liberal MP - whose name Liberals would probably be better off forgetting - from 1973 until its abolition to 1983
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Adrian
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Post by Adrian on Jul 15, 2017 23:49:42 GMT
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Post by Deleted on Jul 16, 2017 5:58:19 GMT
Thanks very much for drawing our attention to this - I live in East London, and have reserved a place. |
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Jul 16, 2017 17:43:45 GMT
A decent proportion of South East Cambridgeshire used to be in the Isle of Ely (most of that seat is now NE Cambs, but Ely itself is in SE Cambs) which had a Liberal MP - whose name Liberals would probably be better off forgetting - from 1973 until its abolition to 1983 Only around a quarter of the seat's electorate, though (even if it probably was the most Liberal bit of the Isle of Ely). There is a bit of liberalism by descent round here, but demographics are considerably more significant. |
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 14, 2017 11:43:36 GMT
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 14, 2017 16:58:39 GMT
Majorities in seats won by Labour in 2005, Conservative in 2017 | Constituency | Majority % 2017 | | Brigg and Goole | 27.4 | | Tamworth | 26.2 | | North West Leicestershire | 24.8 | | South Basildon and East Thurrock | 24.4 | | Dartford | 24.3 | | Chatham and Aylesford | 23.3 | | South Derbyshire | 22.7 | | South Dorset | 22.5 | | Cleethorpes | 21.7 | | Portsmouth North | 21.1 | | Dudley South | 20.2 | | Burton | 20.1 | | Gillingham and Rainham | 19.3 | | Amber Valley | 18.1 | | Great Yarmouth | 18.1 | | North Warwickshire | 18.0 | | Cannock Chase | 17.5 | | Waveney | 17.5 | | Elmet and Rothwell | 16.5 | | Redditch | 16.3 | | Stourbridge | 16.2 | | Rugby | 16.0 | | Harlow | 15.7 | | Kingswood | 15.4 | | North Swindon | 15.2 | | Stafford | 14.9 | | South Ribble | 13.5 | | Dover | 12.4 | | Halesowen and Rowley Regis | 11.8 | | Plymouth, Moor View | 11.1 | | Dumfries and Galloway | 10.9* | | Aberdeen South | 10.7* | | Nuneaton | 10.3 | | Gloucester | 10.2 | | Sherwood | 9.7 | | Erewash | 9.1 | | East Renfrewshire | 8.8* | | Loughborough | 7.9 | | Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire | 7.4 | | Stevenage | 6.9 | | Walsall North | 6.8 | | Rossendale and Darwen | 6.4 | | Ochil and South Perthshire | 6.2* | | Carlisle | 6.0 | | Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock | 6.0* | | North East Derbyshire | 5.7 | | Reading West | 5.6 | | Blackpool North and Cleveleys | 4.9 | | Crawley | 4.9 | | Worcester | 4.9 | | South Swindon | 4.8 | | Corby | 4.5 | | Vale Of Glamorgan | 4.1 | | Morley and Outwood | 4.0 | | Copeland | 3.9 | | Watford | 3.6 | | Harrow East | 3.5 | | Milton Keynes North | 3.1 | | Morecambe and Lunesdale | 3.1 | | Pendle | 2.9 | | Northampton South | 2.8 | | Milton Keynes South | 2.7 | | Middlesbrough South and East Cleveland | 2.1 | | Mansfield | 2.1 | | Hendon | 2.1 | | Northampton North | 2.0 | | Aberconwy | 2.0 | | Bolton West | 1.8 | | Telford | 1.6 | | Stoke-On-Trent South | 1.6 | | Broxtowe | 1.6 | | Norwich North | 1.1 | | Calder Valley | 1.0 | | Thurrock | 0.7 | | Hastings and Rye | 0.6 | | Pudsey | 0.6 | | Stirling | 0.3* | | Southampton, Itchen | 0.1 |
* Majority over SNP |
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Oct 14, 2017 17:04:19 GMT
Majorities in seats won by Liberal Democrat in 2005, Conservative in 2017 | Constituency | Majority % 2017 | | Romsey and Southampton North | 36.0 | | Somerton and Frome | 35.9 | | Newton Abbot | 33.2 (Lab) | | South East Cornwall | 32.8 (Lab) | | Harrogate and Knaresborough | 32.0 | | Mid Dorset and North Poole | 31.8 | | Hereford and South Herefordshire | 29.7 (Lab) | | Chippenham | 29.1 | | Torbay | 27.9 | | Berwick-Upon-Tweed | 27.9 (Lab) | | Montgomeryshire | 26.6 | | Taunton Deane | 25.2 | | Yeovil | 24.8 | | Eastleigh | 24.8 | | Sutton and Cheam | 24.4 | | Thornbury and Yate | 23.8 | | Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk | 21.1 (SNP) | | St Austell and Newquay | 20.6 (Lab) | | Brecon and Radnorshire | 19.4 | | Winchester | 17.5 | | West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine | 15.4 (SNP) | | York Outer | 14.4 (Lab) | | North Cornwall | 14.1 | | Hazel Grove | 12.5 | | Colchester | 10.6 (Lab) | | Lewes | 10.2 | | Cheadle | 8.3 | | North Devon | 7.8 | | Truro and Falmouth | 6.7 (Lab) | | Southport | 6.1 (Lab) | | Gordon | 4.9 (SNP) | | Cheltenham | 4.5 | | Camborne and Redruth | 3.3 (Lab) | | St Ives | 0.6 | | Richmond Park | 0.1 |
NB in several seats, the Liberal Democrats were not in second place in 2017. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2017 21:35:40 GMT
David Drew* Christopher Leslie** Chris Ruane* Stephen Twigg** Vince Cable* Ed Davey* *lost seat and later regained it **lost seat then carpetbagged their way to a safer one There may be more MPs from the class of 1997 that fit into those categories, but I know of the caveat behind those 6 off the top of my head. If you're including David Drew why not Joan Ryan? |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2017 21:55:51 GMT
Smallest Tory majorities over Labour in seats held by the Conservatives in 1997
Altrincham & Sale West 12.2
Uxbridge & South Ruislip 10.8
East Worthing & Shoreham 9.6
Chingford & Woodford Green 5.2
Chipping Barnet 0.6
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Post by jigger on Oct 14, 2017 22:03:57 GMT
Smallest Tory majorities over Labour in seats held by the Conservatives in 1997 Altrincham & Sale West 12.2 Uxbridge & South Ruislip 10.8 East Worthing & Shoreham 9.6 Chingford & Woodford Green 5.2 Chipping Barnet 0.6 Uxbridge and South Ruislip would have voted Labour in 1997. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2017 22:08:04 GMT
Smallest Labour majorities over the Conservatives in seats held by Labour in 1983:
Bassetlaw 9.3
Rother Valley 7.8
Great Grimsby 7.2
Stoke-on-Trent North 5.6
Wakefield 4.7
Penistone & Stocksbridge 2.6
Bishop Auckland 1.2
Ashfield 0.9
Newcastle-under-Lyme 0.09
Dudley North 0.09
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2017 22:09:45 GMT
Smallest Tory majorities over Labour in seats held by the Conservatives in 1997 Altrincham & Sale West 12.2 Uxbridge & South Ruislip 10.8 East Worthing & Shoreham 9.6 Chingford & Woodford Green 5.2 Chipping Barnet 0.6 Uxbridge and South Ruislip would have voted Labour in 1997. I hadn't known that. I guess replace Uxbridge & South Ruislip with Wycombe as the 4th most marginal Tory seat over Labour that the party held in 1997, |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 14, 2017 23:04:01 GMT
Uxbridge and South Ruislip would have voted Labour in 1997. I hadn't known that. I guess replace Uxbridge & South Ruislip with Wycombe as the 4th most marginal Tory seat over Labour that the party held in 1997, I forgot Cities of London & Westminster which is of course more marginal than Altrincham, Uxbridge or Wycombe. |
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Post by greenhert on Oct 15, 2017 1:34:40 GMT
Seats where the Liberal Democrats lost their deposit in 2017 despite having saved it in 2015:
Ashfield (1.9% in 2017, 14.8% in 2015)
Banff & Buchan (3.5% in 2017, 5.1% in 2015)
Bedfordshire South West (4.7% in 2017, 5.1% in 2015)
Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk (4.7% in 2017, 18.7% in 2015; held by the Lib Dems in 2010)
Birmingham Hodge Hill (1.7% in 2017, 6.4% in 2015)
Birmingham Selly Oak (3.4% in 2017, 5.6% in 2015)
Blyth Valley (4.6% in 2017, 5.9% in 2015)
Bradford East (1.8% in 2017, 29.5% in 2015; Lib Dem gain from Labour in 2010)
Brent East (4.8% in 2017, 8.4% in 2015; held by the Lib Dems' Sarah Teather from 2003-15)
Bristol East (2.7% in 2017, 5.8% in 2015)
Bristol South (3.3% in 2017, 8.6% in 2015)
Bromsgrove (4.6% in 2017, 5.0% in 2015)
Cambridgeshire North West (just under 5.0% in 2017, 5.7% in 2015)
Charnwood (3.7% in 2017, 6.9% in 2015)
Chingford & Woodford Green (4.4% in 2017, 5.5% in 2015)
City of Chester (2.7% in 2017, 5.6% in 2015)
Colne Valley (4.1% in 2017, 6.0% in 2015; the Lib Dems held this from 1966-70 and again from 1974-87)
Derby North (4.6% in 2017, 8.6% in 2015)
Devon East (2.4% in 2017, 6.8% in 2015)
Durham North (4.6% in 2017, 5.1% in 2015)
Forest of Dean (3.9% in 2017, 5.3% in 2015)
Gateshead (4.1% in 2017, 6.9% in 2015)
Haltemprice & Howden (4.8% in 2017, 6.2% in 2015)
Hammersmith (5.4% in 2017, 4.6% in 2015)
Huddersfield (2.6% in 2017, 5.8% in 2015)
Hull East (3.4% in 2017, 6.5% in 2015)
Isle of Wight (3.7% in 2017, 7.5% in 2015; the Lib Dems held this from 1974-87 and then again from 1997-2001)
Leeds North East (3.7% in 2017, 5.3% in 2015)
Leicestershire South (4.3% in 2017, 7.4% in 2015)
Lewisham East (4.4% in 2017, 5.7% in 2015)
Lichfield (just below 5.0% in 2017, 5.6% in 2015)
Luton South (2.3% in 2017, 7.5% in 2015)
Meriden (4.9% in 2017, 5.0% in 2015)
Newcastle-upon-Tyne Central (4.9% in 2017, 6.3% in 2015)
Newport East (2.6% in 2017, 6.4% in 2015)
Oldham East & Saddleworth (3.6% in 2017, 12.9% in 2015)
Penistone & Stocksbridge (4.1% in 2017, 6.3% in 2015)
Pontypridd (4.9% in 2017, 12.9% in 2015)
Rushcliffe (4.7% in 2017, 5.0% in 2015; I was a counting assistant at that particular declaration and instantly calculated upon hearing the total figures that the Lib Dems had lost their deposit then) St Helens South & Whiston (4.0% in 2017, 5.7% in 2015)
Sheffield Heeley (4.6% in 2017, 11.3% in 2015)
Sheffield South East (3.3% in 2017, 5.3% in 2015)
Stockport (4.3% in 2017, 7.7% in 2015)
Southend West (4.5% in 2017, 9.3% in 2015)
Suffolk Central & Ipswich North (4.3% in 2017, 6.1% in 2015)
Swansea West (3.4% in 2017, 9.0% in 2015)
Wansbeck (4.7% in 2017, 6.2% in 2015)
Wrexham (2.5% in 2017, 5.3% in 2015) Wyre & Preston North (4.8% in 2017, 5.4% in 2015)
York Central (4.7% in 2017, 8.6% in 2015)
Yorkshire East (4.0% in 2017, 5.9% in 2015)
Conversely, the Lib Dems saved their deposits in these constituencies in 2017 having lost their deposit in the same constituency in 2015:
Aberdeen South (5.8% in 2017, 4.6% in 2015)
Battersea (8.0% in 2017, 4.4% in 2015)
Bedford (5.9% in 2017, 4.2% in 2015)
Brentford & Isleworth (5.0% in 2017, 4.0% in 2015)
Chipping Barnet (5.4% in 2017, 4.5% in 2015)
Daventry (7.2% in 2017, 4.5% in 2015)
Finchley & Golders Green (6.6% in 2017, 3.3% in 2015) Fylde (5.0% in 2017, 3.7% in 2015)
Hackney South & Shoreditch (5.7% in 2017, 4.6% in 2015)
Hemel Hempstead (6.1% in 2017, 4.8% in 2015; I stood in this seat as the Green Party candidate in 2015)
Manchester Gorton (5.7% in 2017, 4.2% in 2015)
Newark (5.1% in 2017, 4.6% in 2015)
Poplar & Limehouse (6.7% in 2017,4.2% in 2015)
Ruislip-Northwood (7.1% in 2017, just under 5.0% in 2015)
Tooting (5.3% in 2017, 3.9% in 2015)
Warwick & Leamington (5.2% in 2017, just under 5.0% in 2015)
Westminster North (5.2% in 2017, 3.7% in 2015)
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Oct 15, 2017 7:18:20 GMT
Smallest Labour majorities over the Conservatives in seats held by Labour in 1983: ... Penistone & Stocksbridge 2.6 ... ... didn't exist in 1983, and it's very doubtful that it would have voted Labour had it existed. |
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2017 8:22:35 GMT
Smallest Labour majorities over the Conservatives in seats held by Labour in 1983: ... Penistone & Stocksbridge 2.6 ... ... didn't exist in 1983, and it's very doubtful that it would have voted Labour had it existed. I don’t think the Tories would’ve won it. |
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 15, 2017 10:01:14 GMT
An article in today's Observer:- www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/oct/14/tories-gain-ground-small-townsSome more 2017 stats...the 330 seats that voted Tory in 2015:- 31 classed as 'Large Urban', 4.25% swing to Lab here, voted 56% Brexit, 5 lost to Lab. 55 classed as 'Major Urban', 3.5% swing to Lab, voted 50% Brexit, 7 lost to Lab and 2 to LD. 82 classed as 'Other Urban', 2.6% swing to Lab, voted 56% Brexit, 11 lost to Lab and 3 to LD. 42 classed as 'Rural 50', 1.45% swing to Lab, voted 56% Brexit, one lost to Lab. 75 classed as 'Rural 75', 2.1% swing to Lab, voted 55% Brexit. 45 classed as 'Sig Rural', 2.2% swing to Lab, voted 55% Brexit, 4 lost to Lab. The 232 seats that voted Labour in 2015:- 38 'Large Urban', 2.55% swing to Lab, voted 56% Brexit, one lost to Con. 120 'Major Urban', 3.9% swing to Lab, voted 47% Brexit, one lost to Con. 44 'Other Urban', 1.1% swing to Lab, voted 59% Brexit, one lost to Con. 13 'Rural 50', swing 1.7% to Con, voted 60% Brexit, two lost to Con. 7 'Rural 75', swing 2.1% to Con, voted 58% Brexit, one lost to Con. 10 'Sig Rural', swing 1.3% to Lab, voted 56% Brexit. election-data.co.uk/election-2017-briefingsIt is possible that we're going to see more Mansfields and Canterburys but not sure which will outnumber the other. |
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