YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,908
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Post by YL on Oct 15, 2017 16:50:23 GMT
... didn't exist in 1983, and it's very doubtful that it would have voted Labour had it existed. I don’t think the Tories would’ve won it. I have just tried some naive notional calculations. They're not very accurate even as notionals go, as ward boundaries don't match and the Barnsley 1983 locals are a bit awkward (in particular a big Residents vote in Penistone West) but my conclusion is that the Alliance may well have carried it on the actual votes and probably would have won it had it existed (a different question) as they would presumably have campaigned harder and got more votes on the Barnsley side if those wards had been in the seat. The Tories were probably third, but the three parties will all have been fairly close together. |
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 11,435 
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Post by iain on Oct 15, 2017 17:20:23 GMT
I got these notionals for Sheffield Hillsborough:
Chapel Green
Lib - 6,333 (53.51%)
Lab - 3,909 (33.03%)
Con - 1,594 (13.47%)
Hillsborough
Lab - 5,101 (41.21%)
Con - 4,803 (38.81%)
Lib - 2,473 (19.98%)
South Wortley
Lib - 5,275 (39.05%)
Con - 4,503 (33.33%)
Lab - 3,732 (27.62%)
Stocksbridge
Lib - 3,194 (39.43%)
Lab - 2,853 (35.22%)
Con - 2,054 (25.35%)
Walkley
Lab - 5,306 (51.45%)
Con - 2,927 (28.38%)
Lib - 2,080 (20.17%)
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Oct 15, 2017 17:36:56 GMT
*lost seat and later regained it **lost seat then carpetbagged their way to a safer one There may be more MPs from the class of 1997 that fit into those categories, but I know of the caveat behind those 6 off the top of my head. If you're including David Drew why not Joan Ryan? Have a look at the bits in bold again.  |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 15, 2017 20:16:16 GMT
I don’t think the Tories would’ve won it. I have just tried some naive notional calculations. They're not very accurate even as notionals go, as ward boundaries don't match and the Barnsley 1983 locals are a bit awkward (in particular a big Residents vote in Penistone West) but my conclusion is that the Alliance may well have carried it on the actual votes and probably would have won it had it existed (a different question) as they would presumably have campaigned harder and got more votes on the Barnsley side if those wards had been in the seat. The Tories were probably third, but the three parties will all have been fairly close together. I guess a similar result to Sheffield, Hillsborough, but that seat obviously didn't include any of Penistone (which may've been enough to tip the balance in the Tories favour). I don't know of sure though. I could see it happening, because the Conservatives got quite close in 2010 and 2017. |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2017 6:03:38 GMT
Conservative gains from Labour by Leave vote
Walsall North - 74% (3rd)
Mansfield - 71% (16th)
Stoke-on-Trent South - 69% (28th)
Middlesbrough South & East Cleveland - 65% (71st)
Derbyshire North East - 62% (118th)
Copeland - 60% (161st)
Average: 66.8%
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2017 6:09:39 GMT
Liberal Democrat gains from Conservative by Remain vote
Twickenham - 68% (44th)
Bath - 67% (53rd)
Oxford West & Abingdon - 62% (75th)
Kingston & Surbiton - 60% (104th)
Eastbourne - 43% (415th)*
Average: 60%
*Voted Leave.
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Post by martinwhelton on Oct 16, 2017 8:27:10 GMT
Smallest Tory majorities over Labour in seats held by the Conservatives in 1997 Altrincham & Sale West 12.2 Uxbridge & South Ruislip 10.8 East Worthing & Shoreham 9.6 Chingford & Woodford Green 5.2 Chipping Barnet 0.6 The seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip would have been notional Labour on current boundaries in 1997 and Chipping Barnet would have been too close to call given that nearly half of the current Coppetts ward in Finchley and Golders Green(the ward was created in the 2002 boundary changes) |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2017 8:46:50 GMT
Smallest Tory majorities over Labour in seats held by the Conservatives in 1997 Altrincham & Sale West 12.2 Uxbridge & South Ruislip 10.8 East Worthing & Shoreham 9.6 Chingford & Woodford Green 5.2 Chipping Barnet 0.6 The seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip would have been notional Labour on current boundaries in 1997 and Chipping Barnet would have been too close to call given that nearly half of the current Coppetts ward in Finchley and Golders Green(the ward was created in the 2002 boundary changes) I didn't know that. I guess Chingford and East Worthing & Shoreham are probably the best examples. I also understand that the current boundaries of Altrincham & Sale West include Ashton-upon-Mersey which means the majority would've been similar to 2017 in 1997. I guess there are fewer examples than I thought of seats that have seen a considerable swing from 1997 to 2017 to Labour that the Conservatives still hold. |
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Post by martinwhelton on Oct 16, 2017 9:05:39 GMT
Smallest Tory majorities over Labour in seats held by the Conservatives in 1997 Altrincham & Sale West 12.2 Uxbridge & South Ruislip 10.8 East Worthing & Shoreham 9.6 Chingford & Woodford Green 5.2 Chipping Barnet 0.6 The seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip would have been notional Labour on current boundaries in 1997 and Chipping Barnet would have been too close to call given that nearly half of the current Coppetts ward in Finchley and Golders Green(the ward was created in the 2002 boundary changes) |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Oct 16, 2017 9:32:33 GMT
Smallest Tory majorities over Labour in seats held by the Conservatives in 1997 Altrincham & Sale West 12.2 Uxbridge & South Ruislip 10.8 East Worthing & Shoreham 9.6 Chingford & Woodford Green 5.2 Chipping Barnet 0.6 The seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip would have been notional Labour on current boundaries in 1997 and Chipping Barnet would have been too close to call given that nearly half of the current Coppetts ward in Finchley and Golders Green(the ward was created in the 2002 boundary changes) Yeah it picked up a good chunk of the old Woodhouse ward which was pretty reliably Labour so CB may well have been Labour in 97 on current boundaries |
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 16, 2017 10:55:02 GMT
Yeah it picked up a good chunk of the old Woodhouse ward which was pretty reliably Labour so CB may well have been Labour in 97 on current boundaries I guess the main thing to notice is the massive swing since 2010, but this is similar to Enfield, Southgate. |
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 22, 2017 17:23:51 GMT
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 22, 2017 19:34:44 GMT
Well yes, I think we have all noticed this - it is particularly obvious in the West Midlands.
The problem is that the "solution" offered by the New Economics Foundation is wishful thinking and pretty feeble wishful thinking at that. Something more radical is required.
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Foggy
Non-Aligned
Yn Ennill Yma
Posts: 6,135
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Post by Foggy on Oct 23, 2017 0:10:44 GMT
In the appendix on the last substantive page, it lists among the 'small towns' somewhere called "Hatlepool". |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 23, 2017 10:37:58 GMT
In the appendix on the last substantive page, it lists among the 'small towns' somewhere called "Hatlepool". Spelling apart, I find the division between "large towns " and "small towns" pretty bizarre. Perhaps somewhere buried in the text there may be some explanation of their methodology there, and I can't be bothered to trawl through it all looking for an explanation, but on the face of it some of their small towns seem bigger than some of their large ones? |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 23, 2017 13:39:26 GMT
In the appendix on the last substantive page, it lists among the 'small towns' somewhere called "Hatlepool". Spelling apart, I find the division between "large towns " and "small towns" pretty bizarre. Perhaps somewhere buried in the text there may be some explanation of their methodology there, and I can't be bothered to trawl through it all looking for an explanation, but on the face of it some of their small towns seem bigger than some of their large ones? It's based on population size. But (like me) they use the "population of urban areas" figures, not administrative units. |
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Post by yellowperil on Oct 23, 2017 14:11:20 GMT
Spelling apart, I find the division between "large towns " and "small towns" pretty bizarre. Perhaps somewhere buried in the text there may be some explanation of their methodology there, and I can't be bothered to trawl through it all looking for an explanation, but on the face of it some of their small towns seem bigger than some of their large ones? It's based on population size. But (like me) they use the "population of urban areas" figures, not administrative units. I Thought that must be the case but somewhere like Aldershot can only be regarded as a "large town" if you include a lot of non-urban appendages while Carlisle, say is presumably "small" because it is surrounded by ;ow-density areas? Rather odd! |
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Post by John Chanin on Oct 23, 2017 14:22:03 GMT
Yes. Aldershot urban area on my spreadsheet is 240,000, while Carlisle is 70,000. The urban sprawl, as well as Farnborough, definitely includes Ash, Frimley, Camberley, Farnham, and probably Fleet, Yateley, Sandhurst and Crowthorne as well. This is all urban, and the gaps between the former set are non-existent, and between the latter a matter of a few hundred metres only.
This of course sprawls across 3 counties, and 6 District councils, but no-one ever said boundaries were logical.
This makes the Aldershot urban area the 27th largest in England & Wales comparable with Plymouth and Derby |
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Post by hullenedge on Oct 28, 2017 9:49:15 GMT
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Deleted
Deleted Member
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Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2017 18:05:43 GMT
The Conservatives got a higher share of the vote across the Stoke-on-Trent seats than in Wandsworth.
For example the Tory share was higher in Stoke-on-Trent North than in Putney.
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