Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2017 18:52:54 GMT
The Conservatives got a higher share of the vote across the Stoke-on-Trent seats than in Wandsworth. For example the Tory share was higher in Stoke-on-Trent North than in Putney. Most of the liarbral democrats in Putney will be secret Tories though, I'm quite sure. Maybe so. But that’s like saying most of the remaining UKIP in Ashfield and Stoke is secretly Labour. |
|
|
|
Post by gwynthegriff on Oct 29, 2017 20:38:54 GMT
The Conservatives got a higher share of the vote across the Stoke-on-Trent seats than in Wandsworth. For example the Tory share was higher in Stoke-on-Trent North than in Putney. Most of the liarbral democrats in Putney will be secret Tories though, I'm quite sure. Is this one of your characteristic spelling idiosyncracies, or an attempt at coining one of those tedious "insults by play on words" (c.f. Tony Bliar, ZANuLabour, Condem Alliance, Limp Dicks etc)? |
|
|
|
Post by jigger on Oct 29, 2017 20:58:58 GMT
Most of the liarbral democrats in Putney will be secret Tories though, I'm quite sure. Is this one of your characteristic spelling idiosyncracies, or an attempt at coining one of those tedious "insults by play on words" (c.f. Tony Bliar, ZANuLabour, Condem Alliance, Limp Dicks etc)? I've never heard of this one before. You learn something new every day. |
|
|
|
Post by Adam in Stroud on Oct 29, 2017 22:31:54 GMT
Maybe so. But that’s like saying most of the remaining UKIP in Ashfield and Stoke is secretly Labour. I think they are more likely to be non voters given a binary choice. Liberals in SW London however? They'd definitely go Tory. I very much doubt that (and I'm a liberal who used to live in SW London, albeit not Putney.) Why wouldn't a Putney Tory sympathiser not just vote Tory? (Or indeed, a Putney Labour sympathiser vote Labour - they were the two biggest parties by quite a margin as it stands.) In most of SW London where there is a strong LD vote the party is the leading anti-Tory party - that's how we won in both Sutton constituencies in the past, and in Kingston, and in Richmond Park. Therefore in all of those cases if we did not stand I think Labour would benefit more than the Tories - in fact I campaigned for Labour in Wimbledon in 1997 on exactly that basis (though I also think the Green Party would do well and might even become the main challenger to the Tories in e.g. Richmond Park.) |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2017 22:55:01 GMT
I think they are more likely to be non voters given a binary choice. Liberals in SW London however? They'd definitely go Tory. I very much doubt that (and I'm a liberal who used to live in SW London, albeit not Putney.) Why wouldn't a Putney Tory sympathiser not just vote Tory? (Or indeed, a Putney Labour sympathiser vote Labour - they were the two biggest parties by quite a margin as it stands.) In most of SW London where there is a strong LD vote the party is the leading anti-Tory party - that's how we won in both Sutton constituencies in the past, and in Kingston, and in Richmond Park. Therefore in all of those cases if we did not stand I think Labour would benefit more than the Tories - in fact I campaigned for Labour in Wimbledon in 1997 on exactly that basis (though I also think the Green Party would do well and might even become the main challenger to the Tories in e.g. Richmond Park.) Agree with everything upto the idea of the Greens challenging in Richmond - I don’t see it. I think if Richmond had been LAB vs CON in 1997 CON would’ve won. I don’t see the Greens becoming the main challengers in any London seat. Will be interesting to see if Labour get into contention in a Sutton seat in future. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Oct 29, 2017 22:58:14 GMT
Maybe so. But that’s like saying most of the remaining UKIP in Ashfield and Stoke is secretly Labour. I think they are more likely to be non voters given a binary choice. Liberals in SW London however? They'd definitely go Tory. Given a binary choice between LAB or CON how many of the 6,400 who voted Independent or UKIP in Ashfield in June would vote Tory? These people may decide the next election in that seat. |
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Oct 31, 2017 9:15:27 GMT
I think they are more likely to be non voters given a binary choice. Liberals in SW London however? They'd definitely go Tory. I very much doubt that (and I'm a liberal who used to live in SW London, albeit not Putney.) Why wouldn't a Putney Tory sympathiser not just vote Tory? (Or indeed, a Putney Labour sympathiser vote Labour - they were the two biggest parties by quite a margin as it stands.) In most of SW London where there is a strong LD vote the party is the leading anti-Tory party - that's how we won in both Sutton constituencies in the past, and in Kingston, and in Richmond Park. Therefore in all of those cases if we did not stand I think Labour would benefit more than the Tories - in fact I campaigned for Labour in Wimbledon in 1997 on exactly that basis (though I also think the Green Party would do well and might even become the main challenger to the Tories in e.g. Richmond Park.) Historically the LD vote in SW London would have been anti-Tory. But the LDs did quite well this time in central and SW London, including in seats where they've never been in contention. This was not the case in most of the rest of the country - their strong results elsewhere were mostly in fairly Conservative southern seats with high Remain votes. That suggests that the increase was primarily from previously Conservative voters who were strongly opposed to the government on Brexit. Elsewhere, anti-Brexit voters went heavily for Labour (our somewhat vague positioning on the issue notwithstanding). That that didn't happen here suggests that these voters, whilst very pissed off with the government, are still basically anti-Labour and in a forced choice would probably back the Tories. |
|
|
|
Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Nov 11, 2017 8:33:07 GMT
A request for people here:
I'm looking for spreadsheets (preferably .csv files) of GB-wide results of the 2010 and 2017 elections. Here in particularly I'm looking for the raw number of votes in each constituency, not the share or percentage.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2017 9:43:18 GMT
I reckon if the Kingston, Richmond and Sutton seats had been straight LAB vs CON fights in 1997
Labour would’ve won Carshalton & Wallington and Kingston & Surbiton.
The Conservatives would’ve won Richmond Park, Sutton & Cheam and Twickenham.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2017 9:49:00 GMT
As for other LD wins that year.
I think Labour would’ve won Edinburgh West and Sheffield, Hallam in CON vs LAB fights.
Eastleigh I think Labour could’ve won in a straight fight. Oxford West & Abingdon yes.
|
|
|
|
Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 11, 2017 14:37:13 GMT
I reckon if the Kingston, Richmond and Sutton seats had been straight LAB vs CON fights in 1997 Labour would’ve won Carshalton & Wallington and Kingston & Surbiton. The Conservatives would’ve won Richmond Park, Sutton & Cheam and Twickenham. Disagree on Twickenham (would still be close though). I just don't see it |
|
J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 14,771 
|
Post by J.G.Harston on Nov 11, 2017 15:10:48 GMT
A request for people here: I'm looking for spreadsheets (preferably .csv files) of GB-wide results of the 2010 and 2017 elections. Here in particularly I'm looking for the raw number of votes in each constituency, not the share or percentage. I've got 2010: mdfs.net/Docs/Sheffield/Election/2010/GEVotes.csvI can't remember where I got it from. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Nov 11, 2017 15:30:55 GMT
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 11, 2017 15:58:23 GMT
Labour would not have won Twickenham if it had been CON vs LAB.
Surely Labour would not have won a Richmond seat even in ‘97.
I could see C&W and K&S.
|
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Nov 19, 2017 10:11:20 GMT
|
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Nov 19, 2017 10:21:10 GMT
Is this one of your characteristic spelling idiosyncracies, or an attempt at coining one of those tedious "insults by play on words" (c.f. Tony Bliar, ZANuLabour, Condem Alliance, Limp Dicks etc)? I've never heard of this one before. You learn something new every day. Classic withdrawal symptoms. |
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Nov 19, 2017 10:27:38 GMT
As for other LD wins that year. I think Labour would’ve won Edinburgh West and Sheffield, Hallam in CON vs LAB fights. Eastleigh I think Labour could’ve won in a straight fight. Oxford West & Abingdon yes. In straight fights I think the Conservatives would have narrowly taken Hallam and easily taken Eastleigh. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2017 11:06:54 GMT
What about Edinburgh West and OxWab?
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 38,916
|
Post by The Bishop on Nov 19, 2017 12:25:00 GMT
As for other LD wins that year. I think Labour would’ve won Edinburgh West and Sheffield, Hallam in CON vs LAB fights. Eastleigh I think Labour could’ve won in a straight fight. Oxford West & Abingdon yes. In straight fights I think the Conservatives would have narrowly taken Hallam and easily taken Eastleigh. Even though Labour were a pretty strong 3rd in Eastleigh two decades ago? They would probably have won the 1994 by-election in a straight fight with the Tories too. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2017 14:23:06 GMT
Eastleigh was often quite marginal between Labour and the Conservatives when first created in the 50s.
I do think Labour could’ve won it were it not for the LDs.
How different is it to Portsmouth North which Labour won under Blair?
|
|
