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Post by finsobruce on Nov 19, 2017 14:26:39 GMT
Eastleigh was often quite marginal between Labour and the Conservatives when first created in the 50s. I do think Labour could’ve won it were it not for the LDs. How different is it to Portsmouth North which Labour won under Blair? 545 votes in 1955 when the candidate was the only ever Labour MP for Wycombe, John Haire. 701 votes in 1966. |
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Post by gwynthegriff on Nov 19, 2017 17:11:49 GMT
Eastleigh was often quite marginal between Labour and the Conservatives when first created in the 50s. I do think Labour could’ve won it were it not for the LDs. How different is it to Portsmouth North which Labour won under Blair? In the 1950s (and the 60s) there would have been a high number of (highly unionised) railway workers in Eastleigh. |
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Khunanup
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Portsmouth Liberal Democrats
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Post by Khunanup on Nov 19, 2017 22:28:16 GMT
Eastleigh was often quite marginal between Labour and the Conservatives when first created in the 50s. I do think Labour could’ve won it were it not for the LDs. How different is it to Portsmouth North which Labour won under Blair? Eastleigh has changed an awful lot since '94. It's got ever more suburban in character and thus reduced the influence of Bishopstoke & Eastleigh itself within the seat which was the core of the 'Labour areas'. It should also not be forgotten that '83-'97 Eastleigh included Woolston Ward from Southampton which is reliably Labour (with one or two rare exceptions) so that is a pro-Labour factor that simply doesn't exist anymore. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 19, 2017 22:51:36 GMT
Eastleigh was often quite marginal between Labour and the Conservatives when first created in the 50s. I do think Labour could’ve won it were it not for the LDs. How different is it to Portsmouth North which Labour won under Blair? Eastleigh has changed an awful lot since '94. It's got ever more suburban in character and thus reduced the influence of Bishopstoke & Eastleigh itself within the seat which was the core of the 'Labour areas'. It should also not be forgotten that '83-'97 Eastleigh included Woolston Ward from Southampton which is reliably Labour (with one or two rare exceptions) so that is a pro-Labour factor that simply doesn't exist anymore. I didn’t know that. Explains a lot. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 20, 2017 9:12:17 GMT
Woolston was removed in 1997 but at the same time Chandlers Ford and Hiltingbury was removed. These areas not only contain many more voters than Woolston but are far weaker for Labour than Woolston is for the Tories (or vice versa - however you want to look at it). So I doubt the boundary changes that came into force in 1997 would have altered the Conservative/Labour balance all that much
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 20, 2017 9:17:06 GMT
I mean on the 1992 notionals, Labour would only have been narrowly ahead in Woolston (if at all) while the Conservatives would have been massively ahead in Chandlers Ford, so the removal of both would bring Labour notionally closer in numerical terms though not necessarily in percentage terms. Of course in 1997 those positions would have been hugely different - a massive Labour lead in Woolston and a more modest(than 1992)(though still substantial) Tory lead in Chandler's ford. Which would have been larger is anyone's guess really
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 20, 2017 20:56:15 GMT
Labour came close to winning Gosport in 2001 so not unfeasible they could've taken Eastleigh in 97/01.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 10:17:53 GMT
Not in 1997. Labour was 6,000 behind in Gosport. It was in 2001 when Labour came quite a bit closer. You’re correct of course, I’ve edited my comment. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 21, 2017 11:06:47 GMT
As for other LD wins that year. I think Labour would’ve won Edinburgh West and Sheffield, Hallam in CON vs LAB fights. Eastleigh I think Labour could’ve won in a straight fight. Oxford West & Abingdon yes. In straight fights I think the Conservatives would have narrowly taken Hallam and easily taken Eastleigh. I agree about Eastleigh, but not Hallam - the anti-Tory mood in Sheffield is just too strong. The fact they can hardly get more votes than Labour in Dore and Totley, which would be monolithically Tory if it was in a 'shire' says a lot. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2017 11:11:05 GMT
In straight fights I think the Conservatives would have narrowly taken Hallam and easily taken Eastleigh. I agree about Eastleigh, but not Hallam - the anti-Tory mood in Sheffield is just too strong. The fact they can hardly get more votes than Labour in Dore and Totley, which would be monolithically Tory if it was in a 'shire' says a lot. I don't think so Mike and I have known it for a very long time. There has been so much tactical voting that the unwind in not having a LD at all is difficult to forecast. that area is most definitely right of centre and in a succession of straight fights would IMO revert to being Conservative with varying levels of majority. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 21, 2017 11:16:11 GMT
I agree about Eastleigh, but not Hallam - the anti-Tory mood in Sheffield is just too strong. The fact they can hardly get more votes than Labour in Dore and Totley, which would be monolithically Tory if it was in a 'shire' says a lot. I don't think so Mike and I have known it for a very long time. There has been so much tactical voting that the unwind in not having a LD at all is difficult to forecast. that area is most definitely right of centre and in a succession of straight fights would IMO revert to being Conservative with varying levels of majority. I have friends who used to live in the seat - and were certainly tactically-voting Labour supporters at the time. At one time I would agree with you, but not now. Many of these sort of seats have a different make-up - many of those old right wing voters have either died or moved, and their replacements are much more likely to be left of centre |
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 21, 2017 11:41:40 GMT
Some of them have, of course, moved just a few miles into the NE Derbyshire seat - which also explains quite a lot.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 11:46:40 GMT
I do think Labour would've taken Sheffield, Hallam in a straight fight with the Conservatives in 1997.
Why think this?
Look at other seats where Labour took 2nd in 1992 and went on to win in 1997:
Aberdeen South
Birmingham, Edgbaston
Crosby
Eastwood
Edinburgh, Pentlands
Enfield, Southgate
Hammersmith & Fulham
Hove
Putney
Wimbledon
Etc etc.
Hallam isn't streets ahead of these seats in terms of wealth. It's just the Lib Dems were entrenched there locally and tactically in GEs by 97.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 11:50:11 GMT
Some of them have, of course, moved just a few miles into the NE Derbyshire seat - which also explains quite a lot. 2017 of course being the first time that NE Derbyshire has voted Conservative and Sheffield, Hallam voted Labour concurrently. A nice illustration of diverging demographics in the seats. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2017 12:58:12 GMT
I do think Labour would've taken Sheffield, Hallam in a straight fight with the Conservatives in 1997. Why think this? Look at other seats where Labour took 2nd in 1992 and went on to win in 1997:Aberdeen South Birmingham, Edgbaston Crosby Eastwood Edinburgh, Pentlands Enfield, Southgate Hammersmith & Fulham Hove Putney Wimbledon Etc etc. Hallam isn't streets ahead of these seats in terms of wealth. It's just the Lib Dems were entrenched there locally and tactically in GEs by 97. The generality of most of Hallam is actually streets ahead of most of those others you quote. I don't know anything about Edgbaston or Crosby other than from books and stats, but i have been on the ground and am familiar with those London seats Hove and Aberdeen. I know Eastwood and Pentlands well. I think Hallam is nicer, better off and leafier than all except Aberdeen and Pentlands. I would contend that the median property/income/lifestyle in Hallam beats all of them? Now putting my tin hat on! |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 13:08:59 GMT
I guess Hallam would’ve been more private sector in 1997 as well.
I’ve never been certain just how rich it is.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 21, 2017 13:10:05 GMT
It seems odd to describe Aberdeen South as a seat where Labour 'took' second place in 1992 as if in the same way as the other seats in many of which they moved up to that position from third. Of course in Aberdeen South they dropped to second place in 1992.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 13:14:10 GMT
It seems odd to describe Aberdeen South as a seat where Labour 'took' second place in 1992 as if in the same way as the other seats in many of which they moved up to that position from third. Of course in Aberdeen South they dropped to second place in 1992. I should’ve said ‘was second’. Of course it isn’t comparable to Hove and Southgate where Labour moved from 3rd to 2nd from 1987. And Aberdeen South was a marginal that changed hands in 1966, 1970, 1987 and 1992. It was also highly marginal in Oct 1974 and 1979. Edinburgh, Pentlands was also fairly marginal in 1979 and very nearly fell in 1966. So these two were quite more marginal than Hove and Southgate etc. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 21, 2017 13:49:52 GMT
Edinburgh Pentland had a large proportion of council housing and always contained some very safe Labour wards in areas like Wester Hailes, Sighthill, Oxgangs etc so I think isn't really comparable to Hallam where none of that is true.
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2017 14:27:39 GMT
Some of them have, of course, moved just a few miles into the NE Derbyshire seat - which also explains quite a lot. 2017 of course being the first time that NE Derbyshire has voted Conservative and Sheffield, Hallam voted Labour concurrently. A nice illustration of diverging demographics in the seats. No. They are not diverging at all and both going in the same direction. |
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