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Post by ccoleman on Nov 21, 2017 14:48:52 GMT
2017 of course being the first time that NE Derbyshire has voted Conservative and Sheffield, Hallam voted Labour concurrently. A nice illustration of diverging demographics in the seats. No. They are not diverging at all and both going in the same direction. What direction would that be? Do you honestly think that one election where the Tories didn't perform absolutely horribly in Hallam for the first time in ages is proof that it's moving in any direction at all? I would say that Hallam is more universally affluent - even seats like Putney have pockets of council housing which Hallam lacks, but in terms of median income Putney/Wimbledon etc are far ahead of Hallam. However, I remember Barclay's compiling a 'real' rich list, which is average income adjusted for property prices. The results were interesting, albeit many years out of date: news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/3025321.stm |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2017 14:52:04 GMT
No. They are not diverging at all and both going in the same direction. What direction would that be? I would say that Hallam is more universally affluent - even seats like Putney have pockets of council housing which Hallam lacks, but in terms of median income and media property prices, Hallam is of course far below Putney or Wimbledon. It would be a general but firm right of centre direction. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 15:10:14 GMT
What direction would that be? I would say that Hallam is more universally affluent - even seats like Putney have pockets of council housing which Hallam lacks, but in terms of median income and media property prices, Hallam is of course far below Putney or Wimbledon. It would be a general but firm right of centre direction. How does that work when the Conservatives are 7% down on 1997... I can see the argument for Derbyshire NE trending rightward but not Hallam. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 21, 2017 15:24:33 GMT
2017 of course being the first time that NE Derbyshire has voted Conservative and Sheffield, Hallam voted Labour concurrently. A nice illustration of diverging demographics in the seats. No. They are not diverging at all and both going in the same direction. Hallam was once a safe Conservative seat. Derbyshire NE a safe-ish Labour seat Now both are clearly marginal, with the Tories third in Hallam, but ahead in Derbyshire NE. So clearly the direction of travel is not the same - and similar seats to Hallam have very clearly shifted to the left. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2017 15:33:52 GMT
It would be a general but firm right of centre direction. How does that work when the Conservatives are 7% down on 1997... I can see the argument for Derbyshire NE trending rightward but not Hallam. Because we are still in a position of unwind from a temporary LD dominance. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2017 15:38:14 GMT
Time will tell with both of them. I see them both moving rightwards.
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 21, 2017 15:43:57 GMT
Time will tell with both of them. I see them both moving rightwards. But in the case of Hallam, the opposite is true to date. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2017 15:58:54 GMT
Time will tell with both of them. I see them both moving rightwards. But in the case of Hallam, the opposite is true to date. What is your evidence for 'the opposite is true'? That area is getting more to the right whether it evidences itself in clear positive Conservative voting patterns yet or not. But further discussion is pointless. Results will show it over the next 10-years I think. 2017GE will come more and more to look in many respects as a rogue series of results. |
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 21, 2017 16:03:33 GMT
But in the case of Hallam, the opposite is true to date. What is your evidence for 'the opposite is true'? That area is getting more to the right whether it evidences itself in clear positive Conservative voting patterns yet or not. But further discussion is pointless. Results will show it over the next 10-years I think. 2017GE will come more and more to look in many respects as a rogue series of results. Because it used to be a very safe Conservative seat, and now its a Labour-LibDem marginal. There used to be a full slate of Tory councillors in the constituency as recently as the 1970's. There are now none, not even in seats which should be impregnably blue. |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2017 16:11:56 GMT
But all of that Mike is more evidence of chronic disintegration of the Conservative Party as a party, rather than an actual move within the hearts and minds of right-inclined electors. As an area it seems to me to be moving right all the time and that it will manifest itself in due course through the ballot box and in party membership.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 16:25:14 GMT
There is a compelling amount of evidence that North East Derbyshire is moving to the right:
Labour's 2015 majority was below 1983.
The Conservatives got a higher share of the vote in NE Derbyshire in 2017 than they did nationwide.
The last coal-mine closed in 1988.
Evidence that Sheffield, Hallam is moving leftward:
No Conservative Councillors elected since 2004.
Tory vote share 7 points down on 1997.
Labour won the seat for the first time ever.
Increased public sector workforce since the 80s.
North East Derbyshire is in my view going the same way as Forest of Dean and Leicestershire NW (an ex-industrial area outside of an established conurbation that is trending Tory).
Sheffield, Hallam on the other hand is going the way of Leeds NW. A seat that was once safely Conservative and has drifted leftward since the 80s.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 16:26:20 GMT
But all of that Mike is more evidence of chronic disintegration of the Conservative Party as a party, rather than an actual move within the hearts and minds of right-inclined electors. As an area it seems to me to be moving right all the time and that it will manifest itself in due course through the ballot box and in party membership. I'm still slightly bemused that you're claiming Sheffield, Hallam is moving to the right! Next you'll be telling me Hornsey and Manchester, Withington are as well! |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2017 16:35:44 GMT
But all of that Mike is more evidence of chronic disintegration of the Conservative Party as a party, rather than an actual move within the hearts and minds of right-inclined electors. As an area it seems to me to be moving right all the time and that it will manifest itself in due course through the ballot box and in party membership. I'm still slightly bemused that you're claiming Sheffield, Hallam is moving to the right! Next you'll be telling me Hornsey and Manchester, Withington are as well! No I won't. And not just because I know very little about both of them, but because they are very different sorts of area. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 16:37:38 GMT
I'm still slightly bemused that you're claiming Sheffield, Hallam is moving to the right! Next you'll be telling me Hornsey and Manchester, Withington are as well! No I won't. And not just because I know very little about both of them, but because they are very different sorts of area. My point is this: claiming Sheffield, Hallam is moving to the right is about as logical as claiming those seats are also trending that way. The evidence belies your claim about Hallam - accept it! |
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Post by carlton43 on Nov 21, 2017 16:41:12 GMT
No I won't. And not just because I know very little about both of them, but because they are very different sorts of area. My point is this: claiming Sheffield, Hallam is moving to the right is about as logical as claiming those seats are also trending that way. The evidence belies your claim about Hallam - accept it! It isn't and I don't. I know this area well. Do you? |
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Post by warofdreams on Nov 21, 2017 16:42:43 GMT
But all of that Mike is more evidence of chronic disintegration of the Conservative Party as a party, rather than an actual move within the hearts and minds of right-inclined electors. As an area it seems to me to be moving right all the time and that it will manifest itself in due course through the ballot box and in party membership. I'm still slightly bemused that you're claiming Sheffield, Hallam is moving to the right! Next you'll be telling me Hornsey and Manchester, Withington are as well! I know the area well, and it's nonsense to say it's moving to the right. Following a long decline, the right-wing vote in the seat improved at the last election, but it was still down on 2010, let alone earlier years. And there is very strong reason to believe that recovery is due to regaining some tactical votes from the Lib Dems. The Conservatives might well do the same locally, but they are now so far behind, it will be a long haul to win a council seat. And the population changes in the seat, though not dramatic, are not in their favour. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 16:43:29 GMT
What about Edinburgh West and OxWab? On paper, Edinburgh West and Edinburgh South are constituencies which should return a reasonable vote for the Conservative Party (around the mid/upper 30's). In practice, tactical voting makes it all but impossible for the Conservatives to gain either in the foreseeable future. Agree completely, though my question was more whether Labour could've won Edinburgh West in 1997 in a straight fight with the Conservatives. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 16:44:46 GMT
My point is this: claiming Sheffield, Hallam is moving to the right is about as logical as claiming those seats are also trending that way. The evidence belies your claim about Hallam - accept it! It isn't and I don't. I know this area well. Do you? You do realise that on current boundaries the Conservatives would've got over 30% in Hallam in 2005? They also still had 2/3 Councillors in Dore & Totley then. The Tory position is no better than 1997 in Hallam, and is barely above 2010 (the height of Cleggmania). |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 16:51:42 GMT
Agree completely, though my question was more whether Labour could've won Edinburgh West in 1997 in a straight fight with the Conservatives. If Edinburgh West was a straight Conservative-Labour fight in 1997, Labour would have almost certainly won it (bearing in mind constituencies such as Aberdeen South, Ayr and Eastwood voted Labour back then!) If the Conservatives had a more established presence in Edinburgh West in 2017 then they would've probably won it, or at least come in a close enough second to make it an easy target for the party in the future. Similarly, I would say somewhere like North East Fife has the characteristics of a Conservative constituency in Scotland, whereas East Lothian does not! Agree. Labour won Edinburgh, Pentlands by a clear margin so it stands to reason they could've taken West had they started in 2nd place in 1992. It's interesting how of those 10 or so wealthiest seats in Scotland discussed on UKPR, the SNP only hold Edinburgh North & Leith and NE Fife now, I would've expected NE Fife to fall before Gordon prior to the 2017 GE. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 17:00:06 GMT
Agree. Labour won Edinburgh, Pentlands by a clear margin so it stands to reason they could've taken West had they started in 2nd place in 1992. It's interesting how of those 10 or so wealthiest seats in Scotland discussed on UKPR, the SNP only hold Edinburgh North & Leith and NE Fife now, I would've expected NE Fife to fall before Gordon prior to the 2017 GE. On the subject of that, East Dunbartonshire is a very natural Conservative seat, only Jo Swinson and the Liberal Democrats are agreeable enough that Conservatives are prepared to tactically support the Lib Dems in that area to avoid the SNP taking the seat. If the Conservatives manage to advance significantly on their position in Strathkelvin & Bearsden in the Scottish Parliament then there is a chance that they could become competitive in the Westminster seat. Yes. The Conservatives ought to do better in East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West given these seats would've voted Conservative in 1992. Although be careful what you wish for, a Tory surge cost the Lib Dems NE Fife. Next time I'd expect the Conservatives to fall back in the remaining LD-SNP marginal and other LAB-SNP fights while advancing in Argyll & Bute. But feel free to disagree with me here. |
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