Merseymike
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Post by Merseymike on Nov 21, 2017 17:01:31 GMT
But all of that Mike is more evidence of chronic disintegration of the Conservative Party as a party, rather than an actual move within the hearts and minds of right-inclined electors. As an area it seems to me to be moving right all the time and that it will manifest itself in due course through the ballot box and in party membership. You seem to equate 'moving right' with becoming 'more middle class' This doesn't follow any more - largely because the middle class itself is very fragmented. And many middle-class voters, particularly those who choose to remain in provincial cities, are not right-inclined. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 17:05:47 GMT
Yes. The Conservatives ought to do better in East Dunbartonshire and Edinburgh West given these seats would've voted Conservative in 1992. Although be careful what you wish for, a Tory surge cost the Lib Dems NE Fife. Next time I'd expect the Conservatives to fall back in the remaining LD-SNP marginal and other LAB-SNP fights while advancing in Argyll & Bute. But feel free to disagree with me here. I suspect that the Lib Dem position is more likely to be consolidated in North East Fife as a result of how marginal the election was there. Ultimately, I would prefer for the SNP to have as few elected representatives as possible: if unionists have to vote tactically to achieve that then I think it's well worth it! Unionist tactical voting could cut the SNP's numbers to below 10. Some very shaky holds in the central belt that Labour could take. I'll eat my hat if Argyll & Bute isn't a Conservative gain. Ditto Perth & North Perthshire. Who wins Edinburgh SW next time in your view? |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 21, 2017 19:26:28 GMT
I don't understand how any Conservative/conservative could even contemplate voting for a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour party, whatever the tactical situation
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Post by Deleted on Nov 21, 2017 19:38:07 GMT
I don't understand how any Conservative/conservative could even contemplate voting for a Jeremy Corbyn led Labour party, whatever the tactical situation Depends how much of a Unionist they are. I'd vote Labour in a seat like Glasgow South for example. |
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 21, 2017 19:56:03 GMT
I think most Unionists wouldn't want to vote to put two IRA supporters in Downing Street ?>
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Post by ccoleman on Nov 22, 2017 5:17:02 GMT
But all of that Mike is more evidence of chronic disintegration of the Conservative Party as a party, rather than an actual move within the hearts and minds of right-inclined electors. As an area it seems to me to be moving right all the time and that it will manifest itself in due course through the ballot box and in party membership. You seem to equate 'moving right' with becoming 'more middle class' This doesn't follow any more - largely because the middle class itself is very fragmented. And many middle-class voters, particularly those who choose to remain in provincial cities, are not right-inclined. And because many middle-class voters in major cities are in fact asset poor and unable to buy a house.. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2017 12:10:11 GMT
I think most Unionists wouldn't want to vote to put two IRA supporters in Downing Street ?> I'd sooner voted Lib Dem tactically - in a seat like Edinburgh West - than I would vote Labour. |
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neilm
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Post by neilm on Nov 22, 2017 16:07:56 GMT
Wrt Dore and Totley, it's the Totley bit that prevents a Conservative council seat. When I lived in Sheffield, I had staff who 'lived out at Dore' who were regarded as quite posh by the rest of the team*. I sat down with the university Conservatives a few times and plotted an association takeover which sadly came to nothing as I'm convinced that a Tory gain over there is a possible (the people running the association at the time seemed to prefer having barbecues and social events and IIRC had a perennial candidate).
*This is all relative, they considered where I grew up to be posh.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2017 16:55:38 GMT
Worth remembering that Ecclesall and Fulwood were once safely Conservative also.
Interesting to note the Conservatives won Dore in a by-election after Black Wednesday in 1992.
But alas, no Tory Councillors in Sheffield since 2008.
But there are a few seats like Hallam where the Conservatives are 3rd.
Edinburgh West and Leeds NW are examples.
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sirbenjamin
IFP
True fame is reading your name written in graffiti, but without the words 'is a wanker' after it.
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Post by sirbenjamin on Nov 22, 2017 20:45:09 GMT
I was in Sheffield Hallam at the weekend. It's not a part of the world I know well. But, basically, how the eternal fuck are we third here?!? Whilst (just about) in government?!? Jesus Christ Our Lord and Saviour, what the flying vigorous buggery has gone wrong in this place?!?
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2017 21:03:39 GMT
The 1997 election would've stunned me in all seriousness
I've been there too, It's hard to fathom the Conservatives are as weak as they are. Even in Aberdeen South and East Renfrewshire they've managed to bounce back. They nearly won back Edinburgh SW also.
Next May, the Conservatives will win no Council seats in Sheffield again.
But, the same thing happened in Manchester, Withington 10 years before they lost Hallam.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Nov 22, 2017 21:57:45 GMT
My point is this: claiming Sheffield, Hallam is moving to the right is about as logical as claiming those seats are also trending that way. The evidence belies your claim about Hallam - accept it! It isn't and I don't. I know this area well. Do you? Do you actually know the area well, or did you three decades ago? The latter might make your somewhat post-factual argumentation here a little more understandable. |
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2017 22:08:39 GMT
Belleve what you want.
If you want to believe Sheffield, Hallam is moving to the right, I can’t stop you.
But here’s a fact for you.
In 1979 the Conservatives won Hallam by nearly 15,000 votes!
In 2017 they got less than 1/4 of the vote.
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Post by Pete Whitehead on Nov 22, 2017 22:34:31 GMT
Belleve what you want. If you want to believe Sheffield, Hallam is moving to the right, I can’t stop you. But here’s a fact for you. In 1979 the Conservatives won Hallam by nearly 15,000 votes! In 2017 they got less than 1/4 of the vote. Fair to say as well that the boundaries then would be considerably less favourable for the Conservatives than the current ones as they included areas like Broomhill and Nether Edge where the Tories get a wretched vote now. I really don;t understand what carlton is playing at here - he is literally arguing that black is white. I suppose maybe he is just having a laugh, but it isn't very funny  |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 22, 2017 22:37:07 GMT
Why waste time and energy on Hallam when there's a neighbouring Brexity seat next door that's ripe for taking.
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 22, 2017 22:41:57 GMT
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 22, 2017 23:18:36 GMT
Why waste time and energy on Hallam when there's a neighbouring Brexity seat next door that's ripe for taking. Yep. Penistone and Rother Valley saw the Conservatives get over 40% of the vote. I do think the former is winnable. I visited P&S in the summer as it happens. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Nov 24, 2017 18:45:24 GMT
I'm going to write this up at some point but the R-Squared of the Tory 2010 vote in GB and the Tory 2017 vote is GB is 0.91, with surprisingly very few outliers, a handful of urban seats (mostly in London) and, in the other direction, the North East of Scotland and a few old Lib Dem seats in the South West. Interestingly, removing Scotland from the calculations barely changes anything.
For Labour it is much lower, at 0.55, but this goes up to 0.76 if you exclude Scotland, but even in England there are much more outliers, especially but not exclusively the University seats.
For the Lib Dems nationally it is 0.66, this goes up slightly to 0.69 if you exclude Scotland (and so surpassed by Labour for England and Wales).
This was calculated btw using the raw total of votes, and not share, as this controls for turnout.
All this suggests that there has been next to no change in the composition of the Conservative vote, despite its general increase, since the 2010 election, while there have been significant changes for Labour coming from a variety of different directions.
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Nov 24, 2017 19:18:51 GMT
Biggest change in Votes since 2010 (GB only)
Conservatives
Decrease
1. Bradford West 5096
2. Cambridge 3696
3. Ealing Southall 3103
4. Hammersmith 2537
5. Leeds North West 2453
6. Edmonton 1946
7. Ilford South 1937
8. Chelsea and Fulham 1914
9. Wallasey 1839
10. Bradford East 1569
Overall there are 34 seats where the Conservatives won less votes in the 2017 election than in the 2010 election. Of these, they currently hold 5 - listed in order: Chelsea and Fulham, Welwyn Hatfield, Cities of London and Westminster, Richmond Park, and Witney
Increase
1. Yeovil 13562
2. Thirsk and Malton 13405
3. Gordon 12750
4. Ochill and South Perthshire 12127
5. Moray 11954
6. Berwickshire, Roxborough and Selkirk 11658
7. Sleaford and North Hykeham 11526
8. Buckingham 11439
9. Wyre Forest 11066
10. Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 11026
11. Bromsgrove 10935
12. Mansfield 10651
For Thirsk and Malton, the 2010 election was not held on polling day but a month after due to the death of candidate. This skews the 2010 vote figures substantially. Buckingham is the seat of the speaker.
Excluding those two seats and Scotland, the top ten would be: Yeovil, Sleaford and North Hykeham, Wyre Forest, Bromsgrove, Mansfield, Castle Point, Ashfield, Mid Bedfordshire, Thornbury and Yate and Tewkesbury. Only the last of these has the gain been under 10,000 votes (9976)
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Nov 24, 2017 19:34:41 GMT
Labour
Decrease
1. Dumfries and Galloway 13175
2. Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath 12543
3. East Renfrewshire 11641
4. Glenrothes 11223
5. Kilmarnock and Loudoun 11039
6. Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock 10608
7. Rutherglen and Hamilton West 9465
8. Paisley and Renfrewshire South 9419
9. West Dunbartonshire 9309
10. Central Ayrshire 9188
Decrease and least positive change (excluding Scotland)
1. North Warwickshire -589
2. Waveney -374
3. Copeland -332
4. Brigg and Goole +323 votes from 2010
5. Amber Valley +395
6. Clacton +404
7. Brighton Pavilion +464
8. Chatham and Aylesford +968
9. Devon East +1136
10. Tamworth +1253
The constituency with the smallest numerical change in the Labour vote that is currently held by Labour outside of Scotland is Barrow and Furness (1366 votes)
Increase
1. Bristol West 31986
2. Birmingham Hall Green 26104
3. Hornsey and Wood Green 22018
4. Bethnal Green and Bow 21185
5. Poplar and Limehouse 20879
6. Hove 20516
7. Lewisham Deptford 20329
8. Manchester Withington 20208
9. Hackney South and Shoreditch 20086
10. Brent Central 19527
The constituency with the biggest Labour vote increase that isn't currently held by Labour is Truro and Falmouth (16634 votes.
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