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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Nov 24, 2017 20:00:23 GMT
Perhaps unsurprisingly only nine seats saw an increase in Liberal Democrat vote numbers between 2010 and 2017, even less surprisingly this includes five seats they currently hold
Liberal Democrats
Increase
1. Richmond Park 3173
2. Oxford West and Abingdon 2526
3. Twickenham 2486
4. East Dunbartonshire 2472
5. Eastbourne 2266
6. St Ives 2189
7. Edinburgh West 1424
8. Witney 1224
9. Vauxhall 479
The seat with the smallest negative change is another hold, Kingston and Surbiton (-618) votes
Decrease
1. Bristol West 21392
2. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 19748
3. Isle of Wight 19543
4. Skipton and Ripon 17735
5. Brent Central 17507
6. Hereford and Herefordshire South 16329
7. Redcar 16106
8. Hornsey and Wood Green 15595
9. Weston-Super-Mare 15490
10. Somerton and Frome 15468
11. Worcestershire West 15102
There was no Lib Dem candidate in Skipton and Ripon in 2017, so italicized.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2017 20:09:28 GMT
Perhaps unsurprisingly only nine seats saw an increase in Liberal Democrat vote numbers between 2010 and 2017, even less surprisingly this includes five seats they currently hold Liberal Democrats Increase1. Richmond Park 3173 2. Oxford West and Abingdon 2526 3. Twickenham 2486 4. East Dunbartonshire 2472 5. Eastbourne 2266 6. St Ives 2189 7. Edinburgh West 1424 8. Witney 1224 9. Vauxhall 479 The seat with the smallest negative change is another hold, Kingston and Surbiton (-618) votes Decrease1. Bristol West 21392 2. Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 19748 3. Isle of Wight 19543 4. Skipton and Ripon 17735 5. Brent Central 17507 6. Hereford and Herefordshire South 16329 7. Redcar 16106 8. Hornsey and Wood Green 15595 9. Weston-Super-Mare 15490 10. Somerton and Frome 15468 11. Worcestershire West 15102 There was no Lib Dem candidate in Skipton and Ripon in 2017, so italicized. Really great figures. Thanks! |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2017 20:11:19 GMT
The Lib Dems did do very well in some quite wwc seats in 2010:
They came within 1,000 votes of winning Ashfield, Chesterfield and Hull North, as well as winning Redcar.
Burnley too.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2017 20:34:07 GMT
Conservative lead in Barnet in 2015 and 2017:
2015: 17,042
2017: 3,082
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goose
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Post by goose on Nov 24, 2017 20:55:03 GMT
What about Edinburgh West and OxWab? On paper, Edinburgh West and Edinburgh South are constituencies which should return a reasonable vote for the Conservative Party (around the mid/upper 30's). In practice, tactical voting makes it all but impossible for the Conservatives to gain either in the foreseeable future. While the SNP remain in second place in those seats the Conservatives vote will be supressed. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Nov 24, 2017 21:43:05 GMT
Conservative lead in Barnet in 2015 and 2017: 2015: 17,042 2017: 3,082 Do you have that as percentages? |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2017 21:44:51 GMT
On paper, Edinburgh West and Edinburgh South are constituencies which should return a reasonable vote for the Conservative Party (around the mid/upper 30's). In practice, tactical voting makes it all but impossible for the Conservatives to gain either in the foreseeable future. While the SNP remain in second place in those seats the Conservatives vote will be supressed. Yep. Below 2010 in both seats and East Dunbartonshire. |
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Post by Deleted on Nov 24, 2017 22:17:03 GMT
Bury North had a 98.1% combined LAB-CON vote share.
The highest in the country.
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Post by Andrew_S on Nov 24, 2017 23:55:10 GMT
The percentage of female Labour MPs is 45% overall. I'd be interested to know if the percentage reaches 50% or thereabouts if you only include Labour MPs elected since, say, 2001 or 2010, etc? Or if you restrict it to Labour MPs from particular parts of the country, such as England only.
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Post by Deleted on Nov 25, 2017 0:27:22 GMT
The percentage of female Labour MPs is 45% overall. I'd be interested to know if the percentage reaches 50% or thereabouts if you only include Labour MPs elected since, say, 2001 or 2010, etc? Or if you restrict it to Labour MPs from particular parts of the country, such as England only. North East England must have over 50% female Labour MPs. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Nov 25, 2017 1:06:51 GMT
A graph  This is sort of a beta, and I may change it later, but this shows a comparison of the Tory Vote in 2010 to that in 2017. Each blue dot, often meshed, represents one constituency. This measures the number of votes, not vote share, and while that controls the latter's problem wrt turnout, it is still a very crude model. It does not, for example, control for population change in each constituency in the seven years. The numbers on the left represent the number of votes received in 2010, those on the bottom (x-axis) in 2017. The regression line that splits the graph represents what the graph would look like if each constituency acted the same way between the two elections (i.e. it represents the average change). Those constituencies below the line represent those where Conservative performance has improved above the national average since 2010, those above the line represent those constituencies where they have performed worse than the national average. This is average in terms of increase of vote, so Northamptonshire South, which I have labelled on the line at the very top right, is somewhere the Tories have improved since 2010 at nearly the exact level as they have nationally. Otherwise I've labelled a couple of outlying results - in a later version I might change those - to give an impression what each dot represent. Unfortunately given the number of entries it's difficult to show the relationship between the label and the dot sometimes. In the top right Sleaford and North Hykeham got a bit cut off, but I found no good way around that. I hope it is clear what it represents. A general comment I'll make on this is to note - even despite including Scotland - how very few 2017 results are outliers compared to 2010. Rather the vast majority of constituencies stay pretty much to the line. This suggests that despite the general increase in Conservative vote, the composition of their vote has not changed much since 2010 and who they have picked up nationally from then has no particularly strong (a few exceptions aside) local or regional or demographic basis. As I mentioned, the R-Squared on this data is 0.91 - that means that 91% of the variation in 2017 Conservative vote can be explained by their 2010 vote, a huge figure and significantly higher than those for Labour (especially) and the Liberal Democrats. |
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 27, 2017 20:12:10 GMT
Looked at the R-squared for Labour 2017 and past elections. There used to be strong correlations but 'something' has changed:-  |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Nov 27, 2017 20:36:54 GMT
Is that all constituencies in GB, and is that using vote share or total numbers?
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 27, 2017 21:27:44 GMT
Is that all constituencies in GB, and is that using vote share or total numbers? Total votes in all GB constituencies. Didn't make allowances for candidature patterns etc. Will post Tory equivalent (back to 1959) once calculated. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Nov 27, 2017 23:33:49 GMT
That's an interesting pattern - seems like there was very little change between 1974 and 1997 but after and before that significant divergence.
However, you seem to have a different figure for 2010 -> 2017 to me, I have 0.55. Can I have a look at your data, and that for all elections covered?
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Post by hullenedge on Nov 28, 2017 17:27:11 GMT
That's an interesting pattern - seems like there was very little change between 1974 and 1997 but after and before that significant divergence. However, you seem to have a different figure for 2010 -> 2017 to me, I have 0.55. Can I have a look at your data, and that for all elections covered? Of course, here's the link to the spreadsheet (results taken from many databases/websites and " swanarcadian" to thank for the 1970 notionals):- www.dropbox.com/sh/83d75w91pkppsda/AAAPtt1OJrR5LnIHaUb9HapVa?dl=0Please advise/correct any errors. |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Nov 28, 2017 23:52:28 GMT
That's an interesting pattern - seems like there was very little change between 1974 and 1997 but after and before that significant divergence. However, you seem to have a different figure for 2010 -> 2017 to me, I have 0.55. Can I have a look at your data, and that for all elections covered? Of course, here's the link to the spreadsheet (results taken from many databases/websites and " swanarcadian " to thank for the 1970 notionals):- www.dropbox.com/sh/83d75w91pkppsda/AAAPtt1OJrR5LnIHaUb9HapVa?dl=0Please advise/correct any errors. Yeah, there are a few errors here. Some of the constituencies the 2010 and 2015 numbers do not match to the 2005 and 2017 ones (although 2010 and 2015 all match with each other, as do 2005 and 2017). These constituencies are mismatched I assume because their names - they are the Four Newcastles, the three Durhams, and a long list for constituencies beginning with the letter 'S' from St Albans to Spelthorne or from Salford and Eccles to St Ives depending on whether you put 'St' as a separate alphabetical category or not. Once these were re-ordered I got the same results as I did earlier with my own data set for 2010 and 2017. Thus re-doing the calculations for R-Squared For 2005: 2010 - 0.81 2015 - 0.62 2017 - 0.45 For 2010: 2015 - 0.79 2017 - 0.55 For 2015: 2017 - 0.88 |
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Nov 29, 2017 0:32:34 GMT
England and Wales only
For 2005:
2010 - 0.81
2015 - 0.63
2017 - 0.51
For 2010:
2015 - 0.89
2017 - 0.76
For 2015:
2017 - 0.91
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Nov 29, 2017 0:41:22 GMT
For Scotland
For 2005:
2010 - 0.95(!)
2015 - 0.80
2017 - 0.67
For 2010:
2015 - 0.85
2017 - 0.68
For 2015:
2017 - 0.85
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Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Nov 29, 2017 1:29:25 GMT
Related: I'm looking for data for election results - both seats and vote share - in the North of England. I already have up to 1983 but I'd like to if possible go back to 1951. I'm looking for cumulative regional totals.
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