|
|
Post by hullenedge on Nov 29, 2017 10:39:49 GMT
Apologies. Spreadsheets now corrected. Now show same results for R-squared. Tory & Labour figures appear to deviate from 2001:-   More spreadsheets added to the Dropbox folder. Will add more in due course. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2017 11:07:53 GMT
Strongest Conservative performances in seats where they have no Councillors:
Morley & Outwood - 50.7%
Mansfield - 46.6%
Ashfield - 41.7%
Bolsover - 40.5%
Rother Valley - 40.3%
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 1, 2017 18:20:46 GMT
Remain-voting seats (excluding Scotland) which swung to the Conservatives in 2017:
Lewes
Sutton & Cheam
Westmorland & Lonsdale
|
|
|
|
Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Dec 6, 2017 4:53:49 GMT
hullenedge thanks a lot of that database - it was very useful and helpful. Does you - or anyone - have a spreadsheet for 1945?
|
|
Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922 
|
Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 6, 2017 8:37:38 GMT
Related: I'm looking for data for election results - both seats and vote share - in the North of England. I already have up to 1983 but I'd like to if possible go back to 1951. I'm looking for cumulative regional totals. Please define the North of England (and then I shall be able to provide you with those numbers) |
|
|
|
Post by hullenedge on Dec 6, 2017 8:39:59 GMT
|
|
Harry Hayfield
Green
Cavalier Gentleman (as in 17th century Cavalier)
Posts: 2,922
|
Post by Harry Hayfield on Dec 6, 2017 8:40:15 GMT
hullenedge thanks a lot of that database - it was very useful and helpful. Does you - or anyone - have a spreadsheet for 1945? 1945 as a spreadsheet is a little tricky (thanks to the multi member seats they have) however I would suggest that you visit www.politicsresources.net/area/uk/ge45/ge45index.htm to see if that can help |
|
|
|
Post by IceAgeComing on Dec 6, 2017 12:23:01 GMT
The easiest way of handling multi-member seats is always to take the candidate who got the most votes from a party and count that as being the party vote: seems to be the most sensible way. I do have access to FWS Craig's 1918-50 election results book which has a nice breakdown in the back of the various combinations of votes that were cast in the two member seats of the time for most elections in the period: which is probably a lot more useful if you're only trying to find those voters who only voted Labour for both candidates...
|
|
|
|
Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Dec 6, 2017 13:12:13 GMT
Related: I'm looking for data for election results - both seats and vote share - in the North of England. I already have up to 1983 but I'd like to if possible go back to 1951. I'm looking for cumulative regional totals. Please define the North of England (and then I shall be able to provide you with those numbers) Already done! I've been using the spreadsheets of hullenedge and calculating from there. But thanks anyway. |
|
|
|
Post by greenchristian on Dec 6, 2017 17:33:08 GMT
The easiest way of handling multi-member seats is always to take the candidate who got the most votes from a party and count that as being the party vote: seems to be the most sensible way. I do have access to FWS Craig's 1918-50 election results book which has a nice breakdown in the back of the various combinations of votes that were cast in the two member seats of the time for most elections in the period: which is probably a lot more useful if you're only trying to find those voters who only voted Labour for both candidates... I'm more a fan of using the (mean) average vote a party got. Especially when you're compiling figures from a combination of single-member and multi-member seats. If the leading candidate from a party got significantly more votes than his or her party colleagues then using highest vote means that votes from the multi-member seats count for significantly more in the compiled figure than do votes from the single-member seats. Obviously if there are parties fielding fewer than the maximum number of candidates the multi-member seats will almost always be over-represented in the aggregate whichever method you use (as almost all voters use all of their votes), but using average vote will reduce that effect compared to using top vote. |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2017 21:46:49 GMT
Seats where Labour came 3rd in 2010 and 1st in 2017:
Bristol North West
Cambridge
Canterbury
Colne Valley
Leeds North West
Portsmouth South
Reading East
Sheffield, Hallam
|
|
|
|
Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 7, 2017 21:52:43 GMT
Sears where Labour came 3rd in 2010 and 1st in 2017: Cambridge Canterbury Colne Valley Leeds North West Portsmouth South Reading East Sheffield, Hallam What happened here? |
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 7, 2017 21:56:07 GMT
Sears where Labour came 3rd in 2010 and 1st in 2017: Cambridge Canterbury Colne Valley Leeds North West Portsmouth South Reading East Sheffield, Hallam What happened here? Yes. en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colne_Valley_(UK_Parliament_constituency)All the others are urban and were much more pro-Remain. Is Holmfirth going the way of Hebden Bridge? I was in the area in summer actually and it certainly had an alternative vibe in parts. |
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 7, 2017 21:56:27 GMT
Ghost of Victor Grayson haunted everyone who hadn't voted Labour.
|
|
|
|
Post by greenhert on Dec 7, 2017 22:53:50 GMT
Only four constituencies have continuously had a Green Party candidate since 1979 (when they were still the Ecology Party):
South/West Worcestershire (core of both constituencies is Malvern)
Bath
Bristol West
Exeter
|
|
|
|
Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Dec 22, 2017 22:15:15 GMT
Labour Targets for the next election
- 64 Seats for a majority:
Target 64: East Kilbride, Strathaven and Lesmahagov, SNP majority of 3,866 (3.57% swing required; I believe this is the lowest since the 1974-1979 parliament. Can someone check this?)
Geographical basis of the 64 target seats:
- Scotland: 18 (all from SNP)
- North West: 8 (all from CON)
- London: 6 (all from CON)
- South East: 6 (all from CON)
- East Midlands: 6 (all from CON)
- Wales: 4 (3 from CON, 1 from Plaid)
- Yorkshire and the Humber: 4 (all from CON)
- West Midlands: 4 (all from CON)
- East of England: 4 (all from CON)
- South West: 3 (all from CON)
- North East: 1 (from CON)
Top 100 Targets:
Target 100: Rushcliffe, Conservative majority of 8,010 (6.87% swing to win)
- Scotland: 29 (28 from SNP, 1 from Conservative)
- North West: 10 (all from CON)
- South East: 10 (all from CON)
- East Midlands: 10 (all from CON)
- London: 9 (all from CON)
- Wales: 7 (5 from Conservative, 2 from Plaid)
- West Midlands: 7 (all from CON - quite a few interesting seats not on this list btw)
- East of England: 6 (all from CON - also see 'West Midlands' above)
- South West: 6 (all from CON)
- Yorkshire and the Humber: 5 (all from CON)
- North East: 1 (from CON)
Also does anyone have a list of constituencies outside Scotland where turnout fell in June? I can make out Dudley South, North Warwickshire, Nuneaton, Stratford-on-Avon... any outside the West Midlands?
|
|
|
|
Post by ccoleman on Dec 22, 2017 22:23:02 GMT
Leeds North West is one. Turnout was 70% in 2015, fell to 67.9% in 2017. Not sure why though.
|
|
|
|
Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Dec 22, 2017 22:40:20 GMT
All non-Scottish constituencies where turnout fell from 2015 to 2017
1. Buckingham -3.2
2. Rochester and Strood -3.1
3. Gravesham -2.4
4. Bridgwater and West Somerset -2.4
5. Castle Point -2.3
6. North Warwickshire -2.3
7. Sittingbourne and Sheppey -2.1
8. Leeds North West -2.0
9. Boston and Skegness -1.9
10. Great Yarmouth -1.9
11. Halesowen and Rowley Regis -1.9
12. Leeds Central -1.8
13. Brentwood and Ongar -1.7
14. Chatham and Aylesford -1.2
15. Loughborough -1.1
16. Dudley South -0.9
17. Hyndburn -0.9
18. South Thanet -0.8
19. Devizes -0.7
20. Wellingborough -0.7
21. Nuneaton -0.7
22. Dartford -0.6
23. Montgomeryshire -0.6
24. Bath -0.5
25. Louth and Horncastle -0.4
26. North West Leicestershire -0.4
27. Kingswood -0.3
28. Hornchurch and Upminster -0.3
That's it.
|
|
Deleted
Deleted Member
Posts: 0
|
Post by Deleted on Dec 22, 2017 22:57:31 GMT
Leeds North West is one. Turnout was 70% in 2015, fell to 67.9% in 2017. Not sure why though. Agree. Can understand in seats that were marginal going into the 2015 election and/or where UKIP surged that year but Leeds NW was a target like Sheffield, Hallam this year so you’d have thought the Corbyn effect would’ve boosted turnout in Leeds NW as it did in Cambridge and Hallam. |
|
|
|
Post by Ghyl Tarvoke on Dec 22, 2017 22:59:38 GMT
Looking at the raw numbers on some those student-y seats I suspect the answer is 'much larger register' rather than anything else.
|
|
