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Post by greenhert on Dec 23, 2017 0:32:22 GMT
Ghyl Tarvoke, only four of the constituencies where turnout dropped in 2017 compared to 2015 have a university in them. A larger proportion had a remarkably good UKIP performance in 2015 and at least a few UKIP voters stayed at home knowing a truly convincing Conservative hold was a foregone conclusion (although Sittingbourne & Sheppey had no UKIP candidate in 2017 among seats in that category, and nor did North Warwickshire). The other turnout decreases are likely to be due to the personal quality (for better or worse) of the candidates competing in those constituencies.
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Post by greenchristian on Dec 23, 2017 12:31:58 GMT
Ghyl Tarvoke , only four of the constituencies where turnout dropped in 2017 compared to 2015 have a university in them. A larger proportion had a remarkably good UKIP performance in 2015 and at least a few UKIP voters stayed at home knowing a truly convincing Conservative hold was a foregone conclusion (although Sittingbourne & Sheppey had no UKIP candidate in 2017 among seats in that category, and nor did North Warwickshire). The other turnout decreases are likely to be due to the personal quality (for better or worse) of the candidates competing in those constituencies. I'd be very surprised if that last factor is true. Of all the UK General Elections I can remember, 2017 was by far the one most focused on the national picture. Significantly fewer people than normal seemed to be paying any attention to their particular set of constituency candidates. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2017 12:58:49 GMT
Ghyl Tarvoke , only four of the constituencies where turnout dropped in 2017 compared to 2015 have a university in them. A larger proportion had a remarkably good UKIP performance in 2015 and at least a few UKIP voters stayed at home knowing a truly convincing Conservative hold was a foregone conclusion (although Sittingbourne & Sheppey had no UKIP candidate in 2017 among seats in that category, and nor did North Warwickshire). The other turnout decreases are likely to be due to the personal quality (for better or worse) of the candidates competing in those constituencies. I'd be very surprised if that last factor is true. Of all the UK General Elections I can remember, 2017 was by far the one most focused on the national picture. Significantly fewer people than normal seemed to be paying any attention to their particular set of constituency candidates. 2017 was the most ‘Presidential’ election in the UK I can think of. |
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 23, 2017 13:22:02 GMT
I'd be very surprised if that last factor is true. Of all the UK General Elections I can remember, 2017 was by far the one most focused on the national picture. Significantly fewer people than normal seemed to be paying any attention to their particular set of constituency candidates. 2017 was the most ‘Presidential’ election in the UK I can think of. Strange, since they were 2 of the worse leaders of each respective party. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2017 13:40:21 GMT
2017 was the most ‘Presidential’ election in the UK I can think of. Strange, since they were 2 of the worse leaders of each respective party. Not so strange when you consider that Momentum is essentially Corbyn sycophants and the Conservatives made their campaign all about Theresa May. I got very annoyed with my MP when I got a leaflet asking me to back him because he was "standing with Theresa May". I said, Mark, I want to know what you're going to do for this community. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2017 13:52:41 GMT
I was in Birmingham Selly Oak during the election period and the Labour campaign was primarily about Steve McCabe. Corbyn didn't really feature at all. That said, Labour did apparently treat the seat as a marginal.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2017 13:55:21 GMT
Labour's 2010 vote share in seats where they came 3rd in 2010 and 1st in 2017:
Cambridge*: 24.3%
Canterbury: 16.1%
Colne Valley: 26.4%
Leeds North West: 21.0%
Portsmouth South: 13.7%
Reading East: 25.5%
Sheffield, Hallam: 16.1%
Increase from 2010 to 2017:
Cambridge: +27.6%
Colne Valley: +21.4%
Leeds North West: +23.1%
Portsmouth South: +27.4%
Reading East: +23.6%
Sheffield, Hallam: +22.3%
*LAB gain in 2015
On current boundaries, all 7 of these would've voted Conservative in 1992.
4/6 voted Liberal Democrat in 2010.
Colne Valley and Portsmouth South were won by the Alliance in 1983 and 1984 respectively.
Portsmouth South and Sheffield, Hallam voted Labour for the 1st time in 2017.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2017 13:57:36 GMT
I was in Birmingham Selly Oak during the election period and the Labour campaign was primarily about Steve McCabe. Corbyn didn't really feature at all. That said, Labour did apparently treat the seat as a marginal. I think a lot of the activists were motivated by Corbyn. You never heard people singing "Oh, Tony Blair" in clubs like you hear "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn!". Momentum is all about Corbyn. |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 23, 2017 13:59:29 GMT
Strange, since they were 2 of the worse leaders of each respective party. Not so strange when you consider that Momentum is essentially Corbyn sycophants and the Conservatives made their campaign all about Theresa May. I got very annoyed with my MP when I got a leaflet asking me to back him because he was "standing with Theresa May". I said, Mark, I want to know what you're going to do for this community. i'm no fan of Momentum as you know, but i think "sycophants" is a bit harsh... |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2017 14:00:30 GMT
Not so strange when you consider that Momentum is essentially Corbyn sycophants and the Conservatives made their campaign all about Theresa May. I got very annoyed with my MP when I got a leaflet asking me to back him because he was "standing with Theresa May". I said, Mark, I want to know what you're going to do for this community. i'm no fan of Momentum as you know, but i think "sycophants" is a bit harsh... If you disagree, for "sycophants", read "fanatics".  |
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Foggy
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Post by Foggy on Dec 23, 2017 18:58:27 GMT
Labour's 2010 vote share in seats where they came 3rd in 2010 and 1st in 2017:Cambridge*: 24.3% Canterbury: 16.1% Colne Valley: 26.4% Leeds North West: 21.0% Portsmouth South: 13.7% Reading East: 25.5% Sheffield, Hallam: 16.1% Increase from 2010 to 2017:Cambridge: +27.6% Colne Valley: +21.4% Leeds North West: +23.1% Portsmouth South: +27.4% Reading East: +23.6% Sheffield, Hallam: +22.3% *LAB gain in 2015 On current boundaries, all 6 of these would've voted Conservative in 1992. 3/6 voted Liberal Democrat in 2010. What happened to Canterbury in the second list? I make it four seats out of seven that went LD at the 2010 election. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2017 20:55:04 GMT
Labour's 2010 vote share in seats where they came 3rd in 2010 and 1st in 2017:Cambridge*: 24.3% Canterbury: 16.1% Colne Valley: 26.4% Leeds North West: 21.0% Portsmouth South: 13.7% Reading East: 25.5% Sheffield, Hallam: 16.1% Increase from 2010 to 2017:Cambridge: +27.6% Colne Valley: +21.4% Leeds North West: +23.1% Portsmouth South: +27.4% Reading East: +23.6% Sheffield, Hallam: +22.3% *LAB gain in 2015 On current boundaries, all 6 of these would've voted Conservative in 1992. 3/6 voted Liberal Democrat in 2010. What happened to Canterbury in the second list? I make it four seats out of seven that went LD at the 2010 election. Canterbury: +28.5% for Labour from 2010-17. |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 23, 2017 23:06:00 GMT
Seats not held by Labour in 2010 where the party got 60%+ in 2017:
Brent Central 73.1%
Manchester, Withington 71.7%
Bristol West 65.9%
Hornsey 65.4%
Bradford East 65.4%
Hove 64.1%
Cardiff Central 62.4%
Norwich South 61.0%
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Post by beastofbedfordshire on Dec 24, 2017 0:58:06 GMT
Are we suppose to play spot the odd one out
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Post by Deleted on Dec 24, 2017 6:50:48 GMT
Are we suppose to play spot the odd one out Hahahaha. Yes I know Labour did nearly as well in Hove as in Hornsey. |
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Post by Ron Swanson on Dec 26, 2017 12:35:27 GMT
Strange, since they were 2 of the worse leaders of each respective party. Not so strange when you consider that Momentum is essentially Corbyn sycophants and the Conservatives made their campaign all about Theresa May. I got very annoyed with my MP when I got a leaflet asking me to back him because he was "standing with Theresa May". I said, Mark, I want to know what you're going to do for this community. Yes, my Tory MP was re-elected with an increased majority despite being off on maternity leave for a significant period of time... and unable to campaign fully for the duration of the election. Whilst Tory candidates elsewhere nearby did very badly, one had his majority cut from 4500 to 300 (postal votes saved him) and other target seats from Labour stayed red with massively increased majorities. She didn’t use any of the ‘standing with Theresa May’ literature (much to the anger of the party campaign co-ordinators or have people sharing some of the rubbish on social media that was put out by CCHQ. Speaks volumes. |
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Post by finsobruce on Dec 26, 2017 12:59:55 GMT
Not so strange when you consider that Momentum is essentially Corbyn sycophants and the Conservatives made their campaign all about Theresa May. I got very annoyed with my MP when I got a leaflet asking me to back him because he was "standing with Theresa May". I said, Mark, I want to know what you're going to do for this community. Yes, my Tory MP was re-elected with an increased majority despite being off on maternity leave for a significant period of time... and unable to campaign fully for the duration of the election.With candidates this is often a significant advantage.  (I haven't tried to work out who this actually is, so it isn't a personal comment against your MP). |
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Post by neilm on Dec 26, 2017 22:37:31 GMT
I was in Birmingham Selly Oak during the election period and the Labour campaign was primarily about Steve McCabe. Corbyn didn't really feature at all. That said, Labour did apparently treat the seat as a marginal. I think a lot of the activists were motivated by Corbyn. You never heard people singing "Oh, Tony Blair" in clubs like you hear "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn!". Momentum is all about Corbyn. Which clubs do you go to where they do that?! |
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Post by Deleted on Dec 27, 2017 6:51:58 GMT
I think a lot of the activists were motivated by Corbyn. You never heard people singing "Oh, Tony Blair" in clubs like you hear "Oh, Jeremy Corbyn!". Momentum is all about Corbyn. Which clubs do you go to where they do that?! At least two in Oxford. Park End (which we all refer to as ‘Parkers’) and Bridge. |
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 27, 2017 11:33:57 GMT
Yes, my Tory MP was re-elected with an increased majority despite being off on maternity leave for a significant period of time... and unable to campaign fully for the duration of the election.With candidates this is often a significant advantage. (I haven't tried to work out who this actually is, so it isn't a personal comment against your MP). It's Andrea Jenkyns, Morley & Outwood. Labour 'threw in the towel' well before polling day. Their activists went instead to Halifax & Wakefield. |
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(I haven't tried to work out who this actually is, so it isn't a personal comment against your MP). 
