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Post by manchesterman on Feb 19, 2021 20:29:30 GMT
The word "history" in the title of this sub-forum is really having its stress-levels tested
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 12, 2021 18:25:04 GMT
Indeed. That was my point, the POTUS race at that time had Trump a slight favourite, IIRC, over any Dem candidate, and the Dem race was always going to be a straight fight between Bernie and whoever the moderates coalesced around. I think there was a time (was it after the NH caucus?) that Biden looked in trouble, but I think it was only a week or so later that he had a good result (in NCarolina?) and pretty soon after that he became clear favourite as the not-Bernie option. From that point it was probably slightly better than 50/50 whoever that was would beat Bernie and not far from 50/50 that whoever won that race would beat trump.
Certainly, unless it was in the immediate aftermath of NH, if I had found (or tbf been looking for) odds of around 17-1 or better on Biden being the next POTUS, I may well have had a tenner on it..
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 8, 2021 15:51:22 GMT
Actually, if anyone had widely advertised odds of about 17-1 for Biden, I think there would have been quite a few takers. the Dem primary was still pretty open and they were always going to choose the "stop Bernie" candidate; then it become a straight fight between Trump and the Dem candidate..and whilst Trump was favourite a year ago (I think?) it was still a close race.
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 5, 2021 16:05:50 GMT
meanwhile back in la-la land...
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 29, 2021 18:38:11 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 29, 2021 16:39:23 GMT
I think the Dems would snatch your hand off right now if you offered them that!
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 29, 2021 16:29:25 GMT
I like the layout of their site and a few of the "tools" you can use on it to play about with..but there actual predictions leaves their methodology in serious question!!
Wales, as observed, seems particularly bonkers. Ive seen projections with Labour gaining all sorts of '1997-scale' surprise seats, but actually losing about another 5 seats in Wales!
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 29, 2021 0:27:03 GMT
Maybe they should serve up a shoe made from marzipan
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 28, 2021 0:07:16 GMT
I read that it was a record but didnt read any numbers..
It may be that Biden's strategy is to get busy and get as much as possible done in the 1st 2 years in the likelihood that he wont have a trifecta after 2022..?
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 27, 2021 15:57:46 GMT
I would dispute that (d) couldnt have been prevented as it has in many other countries. But I accept the other points are not of the govts doing. Still begs the question when scientists say the death toll is higher because of poor decisions the govt made; that enough people take the govts side over the scientists..
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 27, 2021 15:31:17 GMT
Referring back to my quest on the previous page, I'm genuinely intrigued/puzzled why things like this dont seem to be impacting on your average voter? It is the biggest story in town and this is a BBC headline so it cant be passed off as "chatter amongst the politically engaged" www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55820178The voting public have a choice between believing/trusting the scientists or the Johnson government on these issues. Unless this is a hangover from brexit about "enough of experts", I cant understand how they would weigh up the 2 sides and edge towards supporting the government's interpretation? I genuinely wasnt trying to be provocative or make a politically-loaded point in my original post, I genuinely wanted to understand why floating voters clearly arent blaming the government for where we are now and what it would take for there to be a "tipping point" where they do blame them. I was just enquiring in the best traditions of psephology
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 27, 2021 14:11:56 GMT
Thank you for your invaluable input Carlton, but I dont think you're the type of "floating voter" i was looking for
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 21:00:30 GMT
"too many conflicting variables" ?? What are you on about? If the government isnt responsible, ultimately, for the "state of the nation"; then what's the point?
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 20:55:59 GMT
But Im not asking it of "hard baked Tories". Im asking what does it take to turn a floating voter these days? Tory vote share will never get below low-30s; so Im looking at the extra 10% that clearly are movable; but how do we move them?
Unless Hengo is considering his response or anyone else from the blue team wants to have a crack, I guess there is no answer to my question...
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 20:46:55 GMT
Im all up for the progressive alliance bit, which must be coupled with voting reform, but I like to think that we in the UK havent quite gone as far down the QAnon/Fake News rabbithole as they have in America. If we have, then we truly are REFUK'd!
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 20:41:37 GMT
Completely missed the point (possibly deliberately as its a tough ask!)
I was asking what "events" need to get worse and how much worse, before you expect to see a big shift in the opinion polls. I didnt mean your opinion about Starmer. Half the country would be pressed to recognise him, so bringing heavyweights into the shadow cabinet isnt going to change the polls.
I was hoping you'd maybe say something like: 250,000 deaths. Massive queues at ports for many months on end, shortages of certain foods. 500,000 job losses etc etc? Where is the tipping point in the minds of the public , as we clearly havent reached it yet based on recent polls.
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 20:30:57 GMT
..but as we all know Mike, the opposition dosent win elections, governments lose them. As they have no levers of power to actually influence change, all the opposition can do is look competent, and I know you disagree with me on this, but I think Starmer is doing just that. Not radical, not revolutionary, not inspiring, but competent.
Indeed..to pick up on your last sentence, soft Tory voters that you want to swing to the Lib Dems wont want to chance it , if Labour is led by someone that they wouldnt be comfortable with as PM [Vote Lib dem, get Corbyn etc, would terrify them, Vote Lib Dem, get Starmer, and they wouldnt flinch one bit]
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 20:01:21 GMT
Can I ask you then hengo in all good faith, what sort of circumstances you would foresee in the near future which would have to happen to result in , say, a regular 10 pt lead for Labour in the polls? I cant believe that you dont seem to agree that things [just about everything right now] is going really badly?? You may dispute my "facts" but there is overwhelming evidence to support them! So can you list 2 or 3 things which could happen which would make you think "well, in view of the state of the country right now, I would expect Labour to be well ahead in the polls"?
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 19:06:39 GMT
I think this is clearly different from confirmation bias, my friend.
Highest pro rate death rate in the world - FACT Massive massive problems caused directly by Brexit (just look at the fishing industry) - FACT
This isnt as simple as "I hate the tories so why doesnt everyone else". I even went on to expand that point at the end of my post. When things start to gradually turn around again (which inevitably they will, its more a case of how soon and how much], the Tories will get the credit from the public; so why , when things are going so horribly badly, why arent they getting the brickbats for it?
My point is ,if the public wont turn on the Tories in these (indisputably) worst possible times; when would they? And if they wont now, then surely they are in government indefinitely. Regardless of your colour scarf, that cant be good for democracy!
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Post by manchesterman on Jan 26, 2021 16:38:14 GMT
You may have a point but it scared the shit out of me nonetheless. Also why else arent Labout 15+ points ahead in the polls like the would have been in any other existential series of crises that we;ve been in for over a year now?
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