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Post by manchesterman on Apr 6, 2021 19:06:29 GMT
I agree with that. I think if a "normal" by-election occurred with all candidates standing, I could see that being something close to the result. I think this by-election would be an ideal petri dish however for the policy propounded, by the likes of me and Merseymike amongst others, that there needs to be at the next GE a cross-party one-off agreement to do whatever is necessary to help the best-placed anti-Tory candidate to win, with the primary purpose of implementing PR for future elections. This would require a hell of a LOT of internal discipline across all the parties; some will have to get used to standing down just this once . It's a very short-term sacrifice for a very long term benefit. However I appreciate it wont be easy and it is counter-intuitive to stand aside, albeit for the 'greater good'. In many seats Labour would be the beneficiary of this pact, but in quite a few they wont ..like this one! Here is a great chance for Labour to show some leadership and stand aside. Of course it wont happen, as Starmer, Davey , Lucas et al havent even had 'pre-discussion discussions' about any such policy [and they may never do]. Indeed I suspect Labour will stand here..get 5% or so and think "ah well maybe next time".
if you want the Tories to continue ruling ad infinitum with 40% support, just carry on regardless. if Starmer wants to be the next PM he needs to wake up and smell the coffee.
The idea that Chesham and Amersham would fall to a progressive alliance is ludicrous. There are conversations to be hard about how hard parties should fight in each other's target seats and if they should stand down (though frankly that's not usually very useful), but if an asteroid hits the constituency then the cockroaches are still going to give the Conservatives at least 50% of the vote.
The idea of my post wasnt to make it likely that the LDs would win the by-election [as mentioned earlier, that would be relatively meaningless as things stand; albeit a fillip]. i was more talking about using it as a petri dish experiment..(which I specifically mentioned!)
As I said, if Labour (and others) dont want to come together in a one-off scenario to promote a fairer voting system, then so be it. Get used to Tory governments for 90% of the rest of your life...
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 6, 2021 17:12:33 GMT
I think the LDs could do well here. In fact it's probably one of the best 50 constituencies for them to fight at by-election at the moment. Early prediction: Con 50%, LD 40%, Others 10%. I agree with that. I think if a "normal" by-election occurred with all candidates standing, I could see that being something close to the result.
I think this by-election would be an ideal petri dish however for the policy propounded, by the likes of me and Merseymike amongst others, that there needs to be at the next GE a cross-party one-off agreement to do whatever is necessary to help the best-placed anti-Tory candidate to win, with the primary purpose of implementing PR for future elections.
This would require a hell of a LOT of internal discipline across all the parties; some will have to get used to standing down just this once . It's a very short-term sacrifice for a very long term benefit. However I appreciate it wont be easy and it is counter-intuitive to stand aside, albeit for the 'greater good'. In many seats Labour would be the beneficiary of this pact, but in quite a few they wont ..like this one! Here is a great chance for Labour to show some leadership and stand aside. Of course it wont happen, as Starmer, Davey , Lucas et al havent even had 'pre-discussion discussions' about any such policy [and they may never do]. Indeed I suspect Labour will stand here..get 5% or so and think "ah well maybe next time".
if you want the Tories to continue ruling ad infinitum with 40% support, just carry on regardless. if Starmer wants to be the next PM he needs to wake up and smell the coffee.
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 6, 2021 16:20:35 GMT
Liked to agree with the first 2 paragraphs, not so much for the last one. Without deposits the number of frivolous candidates grows, which creates almost unusable ballot papers.
No ballot paper is unusable, longer ones are just ones you don't happen to like.
Please define what you mean by frivolous candidates.
paging johnloony
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 5, 2021 23:11:20 GMT
Indeed that may be their opinion. However commissioning a poll does precisely nothing to promote "radical change"
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 5, 2021 23:03:26 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 5, 2021 22:35:11 GMT
Constituency poll due out tomorrow How likely would the Union be to publish a poll which showed Labour struggling?It is surely the client's decision whether to reveal the details. What I find baffling about that CWU tweet is the idea that there is a correlation between the consecutive 2 sentences:
"People need and want radical change"
AND
"That's why we've commissioned a poll in Hartlepool"
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 5, 2021 21:38:12 GMT
I'd change Mark's statement to: "Imagine having an electoral system where each and every vote has equal value"
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YouGov
Apr 4, 2021 17:27:04 GMT
Post by manchesterman on Apr 4, 2021 17:27:04 GMT
Well as you know Im right with you on that one, but that isnt a crucial topic for voters...
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 4, 2021 16:53:24 GMT
Fair enough, but if I didnt know those speeches had been made, then Im damn sure the average voter didnt. I appreciate its harder than ever for the LOTO to get primetime airtime , but the next time he does, he must spell this out unequivocally.
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 4, 2021 16:43:37 GMT
I think everyone on here knows my position on EU membership, but Starmer really needs to nip this in the bud as an issue right now!
It is still a toxic topic. I think the only way to lay this ghost to rest would be to make a public pronouncement something along the lines of:
"I will commit today that a majority Labour government will not seek to rejoin theEU in the lifetime of the next parliament".
This issue could hang around his shoulders from now till GE day if he dosent take clear and decisive action on it now. Shoot the bloody fox!
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 1, 2021 21:10:29 GMT
I keep intending to take part in this but then, at the wrong time, life keeps interfering. Will strive to make a prediction or two now that elections are back on the agenda!
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 1, 2021 11:01:16 GMT
However the fact that this shows SNP almost doubling their vote and getting 7% of the national vote, suggests it isnt worth the paper it wasnt written on!
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 31, 2021 12:19:00 GMT
What's striking about that final chart is the evenness of swing across the whole country - pretty much between 2-4% everywhere. I'm sure many will draw their own conclusions but my initial thoughts is that it reflects a much less divided nation, with the general tide (in this election) swinging slightly to Labour. You would never see such uniform swings in more contemporary elections.
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 30, 2021 13:26:46 GMT
Hmmm
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 29, 2021 18:53:11 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 29, 2021 16:02:51 GMT
That rings a bell!
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 29, 2021 15:30:24 GMT
Yeah, he's from Nunthorpe, and was in the year above me at school in Guisborough (a legacy of the transition from selective educatiion in the North Riding to the comprehensive system in Cleveland when that county was created). He was known as a controversialist even then. Controversialist would be one word... I could think of another word which begins with "C" and ends with "t"
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 26, 2021 18:49:43 GMT
Ah sorry. I wonder why ElectionMapsUK put it up on twitter this afternoon as if new??
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 26, 2021 17:52:49 GMT
Interesting.
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 25, 2021 16:45:53 GMT
*Withington (no Dicks please)
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