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Post by manchesterman on May 16, 2024 23:48:56 GMT
Is there something in the water in that part of Lancashire? possibly cryptosporidiosis?
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Post by manchesterman on May 16, 2024 15:13:16 GMT
The GE is still potentially 8 months away...unless you know something we dont?!
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Post by manchesterman on May 13, 2024 0:02:11 GMT
East is 97th most winnable seat on Labour's target list, so unless something goes terribly wrong they should be winning this seat even if they somehow fall short of an overall majority.
West is number 121, so slightly tougher, but even so, the sort of seat they need to win to get even the barest of majorities.
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Post by manchesterman on May 9, 2024 22:33:29 GMT
As manchesterman has not been around of late, I've provisionally calculated an average of all polls sampled in March. I've excluded the Wisdom Index which a ) doesn't have a figure for Reform UK and b ) isn't really a poll as such. I can update if further polls sampled in March come to light in the next few days. I have included the SNP but not all polls had a figure for them, I have averaged out the ones that had. One poll had no figure for the Greens either. Lab 43.7 C 23.8 RefUK 11.8 LD 10.0 Green 5.6 SNP 2.7 Very little change from February, except that Reform UK are up mostly at the expense of Others. Thanks to batman for filling in last month. Updated poll averages for April [GB only]: Labour 43.7% (0.0% from March figures) Conservative 23.1% (-0.7%) Lib Dems 9.5% (-0.5%) SNP 2.9% (+0.2%) Reform 12.3% (+0.5%) Greens 5.9% (+0.3%) April was another month where Reform showed the most improvement in average vote share. Of little consequence under FPTP of course. Labour slightly extended their lead over the Tories to more than 20%, but, overall, there was little of significance to note in April's polls. [The same can't be same for the various May polls and elections since then of course, but that's for a later date!] ** Electoral Calculus [GB only] projects: Lab 472, Con 86, LD 48, SNP 20, PC 4, Green 2
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Post by manchesterman on May 9, 2024 22:05:24 GMT
Just for 'sniggles', Elec Calc throws up: Lab 552, LD 43, SNP 19, Con 13, PC 3, Green 2, NI 18 [6 of the 13 seats are the usual Scottish ones, just 7 left in England!)
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Post by manchesterman on May 9, 2024 21:53:14 GMT
Perspective will be observed...and the football won't!
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Post by manchesterman on May 9, 2024 20:27:20 GMT
TBF though she plays well to those - generally speaking - with a right-of-centre outlook on life. And anyway, since when did competence, attention to detail, grasp of facts and general common decency become a requirement for promotion to the highest of offices in the land???
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Post by manchesterman on May 9, 2024 20:24:37 GMT
For anyone interested, I've been absent from the forum for almost a week because a minor inconvenience (commonly known as a heart attack) which distracted my attention away from said forum.
However, I'm recuperating steadily and have been allowed out of hospital today. Strict diet, change of lifestyle/health regime etc to be severely enforced by my better half, and good job too!
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Post by manchesterman on May 3, 2024 21:12:19 GMT
Thanks for the replies all.
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Post by manchesterman on May 3, 2024 21:02:12 GMT
Anyone know what was at play here? On the face of it, a massive rejection of the 2 big parties. WP and Green votes soaring out of nowhere. Seems out of step with the other wards?
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Post by manchesterman on May 2, 2024 19:07:45 GMT
There's too much concensus on the placings here. Just for the sake of being different: Lab 56.3 RefUK 18.2 Con 17.8 LD 2.9 Grn 2.3 AFDF 0.9 Black 0.7 OMRLP 0.6 NONPOL 0.3 Would such a result lead to letters being sent to 1922??
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Post by manchesterman on May 2, 2024 13:50:15 GMT
I usually abstain from PCC elections as I dont think these roles should be politicised (as they are in America), because I dont want law enforcement to become a political ballgame (as it is in America). However, given that he's a member of the forum, I thought I'd make an exception, so I cast a vote today for trickyreturns If you win, I'll know where to come if I have police issues
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 30, 2024 12:27:05 GMT
Labour 53.9 Conservative 19.9 Reform UK 15.9 Liberal Democrats 4.9 Green 3.9 OMRLP 0.4 Independent (Black) 0.4 NONPOL 0.4 AFDAF 0.3
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 29, 2024 10:02:09 GMT
The department of Var in the south of France is named after a river that, since boundary changes in 1860, is no longer in the department. Correct. Boundary changes have moved VAR to Stockley Park
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 27, 2024 21:25:41 GMT
Literally laughed out loud at the final entry on that list
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 18, 2024 18:26:25 GMT
Also, if you're of a certain vintage....
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 18, 2024 18:25:53 GMT
What I don’t quite understand is that if a party member received a phone call from her friend the MP in the middle of the night in those terms, why didn’t she immediately phone the police and say that she feared that he might have been kidnapped or was being coerced or blackmailed? I suspect that the 78 year old lady in question knew exactly the kind of character said MP was and thought that the last thing he would want (or the local party would want) was the police finding out about it and then investigating all the associated shenanigans!
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 18, 2024 1:51:04 GMT
East Cambs: LD 53; Con 25; Lab 22
Waverley: LD 35; FR 30; Lab 21; Con 14
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 16, 2024 18:52:09 GMT
Forgot about this...despite reading Tony's reminder and making a post-it note for myself ..which I promptly forgot about!
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YouGov
Apr 12, 2024 19:35:03 GMT
Post by manchesterman on Apr 12, 2024 19:35:03 GMT
I think it might be 18% not long before Johnson took over, IIRC they were tied with Labour - both were behind the LibDems and Brexit Party Crazy times indeed. I did some extrapolations back around that time based on a theoretically plausible (at the time) result of 22% for Con, Lab, LD and BXP to see how that would play out... will see if I still have it! freeimage.host/i/election-22-percent-tie.JvcIg7sThe seats breakdown (GB) was: Lab 207 BXP 184 Con 111 LD 84 SNP 45 PC 2 Green 1
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