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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Apr 10, 2024 5:48:20 GMT
Parliamentary Prediction Competition for the Blackpool South By-election on the 2nd May 2024.
The candidates are:
Stephen Black Independent
Mark Butcher Reform UK
Andrew Cregan Liberal Democrats
Howling Laud Hope The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
David Jones The Conservative Party Candidate
Kim Sherrie Knight Alliance for Democracy and Freedom
Damon Sharp New Open Non-Political Organised Leadership
Ben Thomas Green Party
Chris Webb Labour Party
Rules
1. Predict the Exact percentage score for each of the 9 candidates, to 1 decimal place.
2. Your total predictions must add up to 100%.
3. You will be penalised the amount you are above / below 100%, so please check your predictions carefully.
4. You will be penalised 11 points for each candidate missing from your prediction.
5. You will be penalised 11 points for predicting the wrong winner.
6. Deadline for Predictions is close of Poll, 10pm on Thursday 2nd May 2024.
8. The Winner is the person with the lowest score once scores, including any penalties, have been calculated after the by election.
I have decided I will not be pointing out errors in calculations for this competition. It's partly to save me time, but it is also to reward those who don't make mistakes.
A like on an entry will indicate it has been accepted into the competition.
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johnloony
Conservative
Posts: 21,835
Member is Online
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Post by johnloony on Apr 10, 2024 12:46:00 GMT
00.4 Stephen Black Independent
13.0 Mark Butcher Reform UK
03.0 Andrew Cregan Liberal Democrats
00.2 Howling Laud Hope The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
24.0 David Jones The Conservative Party Candidate
00.1 Kim Sherrie Knight Alliance for Democracy and Freedom
00.3 Damon Sharp New Open Non-Political Organised Leadership
02.0 Ben Thomas Green Party
57.0 Chris Webb Labour Party
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Post by PeopleLikeWe on Apr 10, 2024 13:13:48 GMT
Why not: Labour 50.3 Cons 21.7 Reform 19.4 LD 4.5 Grns 2.7 NON-POL 0.6 Loonies 0.5 AFDAF 0.2 Indies 0.1
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Apr 10, 2024 21:40:46 GMT
Labour 50.0
Cons 22.1
Reform 17.0
LD 4.8
Grns 3.3
OMRLP 2.0
NON-POL 0.5
AFDAF 0.2
Ind 0.1
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greenhert
Green
Posts: 7,235
Member is Online
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Post by greenhert on Apr 25, 2024 18:16:24 GMT
Labour 53.5
Conservative 22
Reform UK 15
Liberal Democrats 4
Green 2
NONPOL 1.5
AFDAF 1
OMRLP 0.6
Independent (Black) 0.4
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batman
Labour
Posts: 8,922 
Member is Online
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Post by batman on Apr 25, 2024 19:17:17 GMT
Lab 51.2
C 25.6
RefUK 14.7
LD 3.8
Green 2.9
OMRLP 0.6
Non-pol 0.5
AFDAF 0.4
Ind 0.3
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peterl
Green
Monarchic Technocratic Localist
Posts: 8,248
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Post by peterl on Apr 26, 2024 21:41:25 GMT
Lab 52.4
C 23.1
RefUK 15.7
LD 4.0
Green 2.6
OMRLP 0.8
Non-pol 0.6
AFDAF 0.4
Ind 0.4
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 829
Member is Online
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Post by Sg1 on Apr 29, 2024 18:32:09 GMT
Lab: 50.2
Con: 24.5
REFUK: 14.5
LD: 3.3
Green: 3.0
NONPOL: 2.2
OMRLP: 1.1
IND: 0.7
AFDAF: 0.5
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Apr 30, 2024 8:28:41 GMT
Stephen Black Independent 0.5 Mark Butcher Reform UK 14 Andrew Cregan Liberal Democrats 4 Howling Laud Hope The Official Monster Raving Loony Party 0.7 David Jones The Conservative Party Candidate 28.5 Kim Sherrie Knight Alliance for Democracy and Freedom 0.8 Damon Sharp New Open Non-Political Organised Leadership 0.5 Ben Thomas Green Party 3 Chris Webb Labour Party 48 |
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 30, 2024 12:27:05 GMT
Labour 53.9
Conservative 19.9
Reform UK 15.9
Liberal Democrats 4.9
Green 3.9
OMRLP 0.4
Independent (Black) 0.4
NONPOL 0.4
AFDAF 0.3
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nyx
Non-Aligned
Posts: 583
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Post by nyx on Apr 30, 2024 19:55:04 GMT
0.5 Stephen Black Independent
14.0 Mark Butcher Reform UK
2.4 Andrew Cregan Liberal Democrats
0.3 Howling Laud Hope The Official Monster Raving Loony Party
22.2 David Jones The Conservative Party Candidate
0.4 Kim Sherrie Knight Alliance for Democracy and Freedom
0.3 Damon Sharp New Open Non-Political Organised Leadership
2.2 Ben Thomas Green Party
57.7 Chris Webb Labour Party
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haribo
Forum Regular
Posts: 12
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Post by haribo on May 2, 2024 6:37:25 GMT
Lab - 52.4
Con - 24.3
Ref - 14.4
Grn - 2.7
Lib - 2.2
NONPOL - 1.6
AFDAF - 1.1
OMRLP - 0.8
Ind - 0.4
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YL
Non-Aligned
Either Labour leaning or Lib Dem leaning but not sure which
Posts: 4,341
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Post by YL on May 2, 2024 8:11:39 GMT
Lab 52.5
Con 25.3
Reform UK 14.8
Green 3.8
Lib Dem 1.6
ADF 0.7
Loony 0.6
NONPOL 0.4
Black 0.3
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,351
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Post by Tony Otim on May 2, 2024 11:56:41 GMT
There's too much concensus on the placings here. Just for the sake of being different:
Lab 56.3
RefUK 18.2
Con 17.8
LD 2.9
Grn 2.3
AFDF 0.9
Black 0.7
OMRLP 0.6
NONPOL 0.3
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Post by manchesterman on May 2, 2024 19:07:45 GMT
There's too much concensus on the placings here. Just for the sake of being different: Lab 56.3 RefUK 18.2 Con 17.8 LD 2.9 Grn 2.3 AFDF 0.9 Black 0.7 OMRLP 0.6 NONPOL 0.3 Would such a result lead to letters being sent to 1922?? |
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batman
Labour
Posts: 8,922
Member is Online
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Post by batman on May 2, 2024 19:59:55 GMT
depends on other results. probably not in any case
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on May 2, 2024 21:01:46 GMT
Competition Closed
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on May 2, 2024 21:10:21 GMT
13 entries accepted into the competition.
Candidate Predictions Range Stephen Black Independent 0.10% by PeopleLikeWe & doktorb to 0.70% by Sg1 & Tony Otim a range of 0.60%
Mark Butcher Reform UK 13.00% by johnloony to 19.40% by PeopleLikeWe a range of 6.40%
Andrew Cregan Liberal Democrats 1.60% by YL to 4.90% by manchesterman a range of 2.70%
Howling Laud Hope The Official Monster Raving Loony Party 0.20% by johnloony to 2.00% by doktorb a range of 1.80%
David Jones The Conservative Party Candidate 17.80% by Tony Otim to 28.50% by DHAA a range of 10.70%
Kim Sherrie Knight Alliance for Democracy and Freedom 0.10% by johnloony to 1.10% by haribo a range of 1.00%
Damon Sharp New Open Non-Political Organised Leadership 0.30% by 3 predictors to 2.20% by Sg1 a range of 1.90%
Ben Thomas Green Party 2.00% by johnloony to 3.90% by manchesterman a range of 1.90%
Chris Webb Labour Party 48.00% by DHAA to 57.70% by nyx a range of 9.70%
Winning Party Predictions Range
12 out of 13 predict a Labour win over the Conservatives, winning margin ranging from 19.50% by DHAA to 35.5% by nyx a range of 16%
1 out of 13, Tony Otim, predict a Labour win over Reform UK by 38.10%
DHAA |
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on May 3, 2024 5:28:34 GMT
Blackpool South By-Election Prediction Competition Result
Congratulations to the winner Tony Otim. Well done also to nyx who finished second and to manchesterman who completes the podium in third.
Final Points Tony Otim 5.8
nyx 10.6
manchesterman 14.6
johnloony 15
greenhert 15.8
haribo 17
peterl 17.2
YL 19.6
PeopleLikeWe 20.4
doktorb 20.6
batman 22
Sg1 23.2
DHAA 28.4
Points before Penalties Tony Otim 5.8
nyx 10.6
manchesterman 14.6
johnloony 15
greenhert 15.8
haribo 16.9
peterl 17.2
YL 19.6
PeopleLikeWe 20.4
doktorb 20.6
batman 22
Sg1 23.2
DHAA 28.4
Percentages used were as posted on the Blackpool South By-Election Thread, which add up with rounding to 100.
Thank you to all who entered. DHAA
PS. A lot of effort went into fixing this competition to ensure I finished the strongest of all. 
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