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Post by manchesterman on Apr 8, 2024 13:25:31 GMT
Disappointed in my Uckfield prediction of Ind to win by 1 vote when he actually won by 4!
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 4, 2024 22:23:58 GMT
I wonder if the election staff would get a day off in Looe
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 3, 2024 23:25:03 GMT
Sorry about my extended absence. I was about to do this tonight, but you saved me the bother
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 3, 2024 22:59:41 GMT
Cornwall. LD 63, Con 27, Lab 5, Green 5 North Northants. Lab 45, Con 40, LD 10, Green 5 Wealden. Ind 36, Lab 36, Con 28 (Ind win by 1 vote)
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Post by manchesterman on Apr 2, 2024 20:03:09 GMT
Lab Gain from Con FLINTSHIRE UA; Brynford & Halkyn 🔶 LIBDEM, CASE, David, 98, 1️⃣ IND1, 53, 2️⃣ IND2, 36, 🔴 LAB, 329, 🟢 GRN, 95, 🔵 CON, 287, Thanks to David Case and his team for flying the flag l🔶 Most annoyingly, this is where I now live after a long, protracted house move from hell! I actually got in 2 days before the election but have been up to my neck in sorting out various issues since then. The annoying thing is I get doorstepped by 3 candidates and had leaflets from just about all of them..which I kept to one side to share on here, but when I asked my wife if she'd seen them last night she said "I threw them out last week as the election's over" If my house move had gone to plan I'd been in with a few weeks to spare and couldve voted, but looks like I'll have to wait for the locals now.
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 2, 2024 20:26:16 GMT
One possibility is that he’s bullshitting, but the other possibility is that he’s just being a bit clumsy in expressing his words and calculations. If the raw figures are correct (13,460 PVs and 12,335 GG votes), then he might think that it is interesting that 12,335 is 91% of 13,460, but he might not even be intending to say that they are the same 12,335. The first time I stood as a candidate (for the Chocolate Fudge Cake Party in Fairfield ward, Croydon, in 1994) there were 175 postal votes out of the turnout of 4,998. I got 175 votes. It’s interesting that it’s the same number.Are you sure it wasnt in Tower Hamlets?
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Post by manchesterman on Mar 2, 2024 20:15:46 GMT
As things stand he already owes hundreds of millions in fines, with the prospect of more to come. Therefore he could end up in even more desperate financial straits than he already is, yet still end up the most powerful man on the planet. So, having a POTUS with massive debts, an off-the-scale level of narcissism and lack of regard for anyone/anything else, but with access to "information/influence" for which the right people would be willing to pay untold fortunes. What could possibly go wrong?
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 29, 2024 23:30:03 GMT
Just thinking, if Ali wins I imagine he will possibly get one of the most "underwhelming" (in terms of the usual spontaneous outbreak of cheering and whooping that usually accompany by-election results) receptions ever for the 'winning' candidate?
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 29, 2024 23:02:20 GMT
This is incorrect, according to the Guardian. Some people had already voted Ali by post, and if there are 24k postal votes as has been speculated, there could be a fair number of Ali voters. If Galloway romps the "on the day" vote but loses thanks to the PVs we can probably assume an unhappy bunny. And a threat of legal action. STOP THE STEAL!! STOP THE STEAL!!
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 29, 2024 22:40:01 GMT
18 entries accepted into the competition.
Candidate Predictions Range
Azhar Ali (Lab) 11.70% by nyx to 34.00% Heslingtonian a range of 22.30% Mark Coleman (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 5.70% by YL a range of 5.60% Simon Christopher Danczuk (Reform UK) 4.00% by doktorb to 20.00% by greenhert a range of 16.00% Iain Donaldson (Lib Dem) 3.00% by greenhert to 16.30% by doktorb a range of 13.30% Paul Simon Ellison (Con) 9.30% by gramps191919 to 21.30% by uthacalthing a range of 12.00% George Galloway (Workers Party of Britain) 8.50% by johnloony to 34.00% by greenhert a range of 25.50% Michael Howarth (no description) 0.10% by 3 predictors to 4.00% by greenhert a range of 3.90% William Leckie Howarth (Independent) 0.20% by gramps191919 to 4.10% by YL a range of 3.90% Guy Nicholas Otten (Green) 0.40% by YL to 4.70% by nyx a range of 4.30% Raven Rodent Subortna (OMRLP) 0.20% by 4 predictors to 1.50% by manchesterman a range of 1.30% David Anthony Tully (Independent) 0.10% by uthacalthing to 5.10% by YL a range of 5.00% Winning Party Predictions Range 9 out of 18 predictors, have the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Labour by 2.40% by johnloony to 10.40% by doktorb a range of 8.00% 7 out of 18 predictors, have Labour winning over the Workers Party of Great Britain by 0.00% by DHAA to 28.00% by kevinf a range of 20.80% 1 out of 18 predictors, nyx, has the Workers Party of Great Britain winning over Conservatives (nyx) by 16.80% 1 out of 18 predictors , gramps191919, has the Liberal Democrats winning over the workers Party of Great Britain by 1.40%
DHAA
Excellent effort in quick time, especially considering your real-life issues which you mentioned earlier and I hope are not proving too burdensome
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 29, 2024 22:07:44 GMT
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 29, 2024 18:23:22 GMT
F*** me. What an awful..well..you can guess.. "If Labour lose...Starmer could well be forced out as Labour leader" is quite a take!
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 28, 2024 23:25:11 GMT
Workers Party 26 Labour (disowned) 22 Conservative 17 Reform UK 15 Liberal Democrats 10 Green (disowned) 3 Independent (Coleman) 2 Independent (W. Howarth) 1.5 OMRLP 1.5 Independent (M. Howarth) 1 Independent (Tully) 1
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 28, 2024 23:08:16 GMT
Minster & Woodmansley: LD 43; Lab 26; Con 24; Green 7
Tranby: LD 54; Lab 20; Con 17; Green 9
Central & Northgate: Lab 51; Con 35; LD 14
Henfield: Green 40; Con 30; Lab 20; LD 10
Southwater North: LD 48; Con 32; Lab 11; Green 9
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 28, 2024 18:26:25 GMT
Maybe the term "wasted vote" is a bit of a misnomer.
I prefer to think of it as the existence of 2 tiers of voters. All those in marginal or even vaguely-marginal constituencies are 1st Tier voters. They will be doorstepped by candidates, asked what their grievances are, offered "reasons" to vote for said candidate, and generally treated as if you're important to them [even if they're lying through their teeth in some cases]
Then there are 2nd Tier voters. Those in the super-safe seats. No one will ever visit the homes of these voters (other than for perfunctory publicity shots for local paper etc); their opinions will not be canvassed and whether you were voting for the massively-winning candidate or not, no one cares as it simply dosent matter!
I've spent most of my adult life as a 2nd Tier voter, but am imminently moving to a Tier 1 competitive seat [and I'm very excited about it!]
The point is that under some form of proportional system everyone becomes a Tier 1 voter...it's literally "levelling up" in action! So maybe that's a better description of the benefits of PR than "wasted votes".
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 27, 2024 23:26:42 GMT
Got to hand it to Trump. He gets 100% on this test!
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 26, 2024 23:07:40 GMT
well its certainly conceivable that that could be beaten in a blanket finish..
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 26, 2024 21:33:10 GMT
do you know, offhand, what the current record is johnloony ?
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 26, 2024 0:23:19 GMT
Baby steps John,baby steps
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 25, 2024 23:31:19 GMT
I dont think even the most fervent Haley supporter actually thinks that she's going to win the delegate count. Her reason for staying in the race is effectively to project herself as the "not Trump" candidate, should events beyond the actual adding up the delegate votes occur in the next couple of months or so - I think you all to what I'm referring - which make Trump's position untenable (which is very unlikely but a slight possibility).
Furthermore it raises her profile as the non-Trump candidate for 2028 if/when the GOP regains its senses.
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