Prediction Competition - February 2024

[robbienicoll]

There are currently 22 by-elections to be held during February.

- 4 by-elections on 8 February
- 5 on 15 February
- 8 on 22 February
- 5 on 29 February

9 by-elections are for unitary authorities, 5 last contested in 2023 and 4 in 2021
8 are for district councils, all last contested in 2023
4 are for Welsh councils, all last contested in 2022
1 is for a Scottish council last contested in 2022

Conservatives defend 7 seats, 4 following a resignation and 3 the death of the previous councillor
Labour defend 4 seats, 3 following a resignation and 1 disqualification
Liberal Democrats defend 5 seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 3 a resignation
Independents defend 4 seats, 2 following the death of the previous councillor and 2 a resignation, 1 of which was sitting as Labour
SNP defend 1 seat following a resignation
Plaid Cymru defend 1 seat following the death of the previous councillor

With all SOPNs having been published, there are 20 Labour candidates, 19 Conservatives and Liberal Democrats, 15 Greens, 2 Plaid Cymru and 2 Reform UK along with 1 apiece for the SNP, Women’s Equality Party, Scottish Green, Scottish Eco-Federalists and Putting Crewe First together with 11 Independents and 1 No Description contesting 10 elections – a total of 94 candidates for 22 seats.

Predictions on this thread at 9.00am on the day of the election.

[kevinf]

Feb 8th

Blaenau Gwent
Ind 50, Lab 42, Green 8
Cheshire East
Lab 55, creweFirst 20, Con 17, Green 7, WEP1
Gwynedd
Ind 34, LD 29, PC 27, Con 10
W Northants
Con 41Lab 34, LD 25

[johnloony]

BLAENAU GWENT: Ind 300 Lab 260 Green 80
CHESHIRE EAST UA: Lab 400 Con 90 Grn 110 WEP 20 PCF 160
GWYNEDD UA: Ind 230 Con 110 LD 50 PC 160
WEST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE: Con 1100 Lab 750 LD 350

BLAENAU GWENT: Ind 47 Lab 41 Green 12
CHESHIRE EAST UA: Lab 51 Con 12 Grn 14 WEP 2 PCF 21
GWYNEDD UA: Ind 42 Con 20 LD 9 PC 29
WEST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE: Con 50 Lab 34 LD 16

[andrewp]

Feb 7, 2024 12:51:34 GMT johnloony said:

BLAENAU GWENT: Ind 300 Lab 260 Green 80
CHESHIRE EAST UA: Lab 400 Con 90 Grn 110 WEP 20 PCF 160
GWYNEDD UA: Ind 230 Con 110 LD 50 PC 160
WEST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE: Con 1100 Lab 750 LD 350

BLAENAU GWENT: Ind 47 Lab 41 Green 12
CHESHIRE EAST UA: Lab 51 Con 12 Grn 14 WEP 2 PCF 21
GWYNEDD UA: Ind 42 Con 20 LD 9 PC 29
WEST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE: Con 5034 Lab 750 LD 16

You might want to revise those West Northamptonshire percentages, 5034% might be ambitious.

[johnloony]

Feb 7, 2024 13:25:57 GMT andrewp said:

Feb 7, 2024 12:51:34 GMT johnloony said:

BLAENAU GWENT: Ind 300 Lab 260 Green 80
CHESHIRE EAST UA: Lab 400 Con 90 Grn 110 WEP 20 PCF 160
GWYNEDD UA: Ind 230 Con 110 LD 50 PC 160
WEST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE: Con 1100 Lab 750 LD 350

BLAENAU GWENT: Ind 47 Lab 41 Green 12
CHESHIRE EAST UA: Lab 51 Con 12 Grn 14 WEP 2 PCF 21
GWYNEDD UA: Ind 42 Con 20 LD 9 PC 29
WEST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE: Con 5034 Lab 750 LD 16

You might want to revise those West Northamptonshire percentages, 5034% might be ambitious.

I blame Kwasi Kwarteng

[Tony Otim]

Feb 7, 2024 17:07:04 GMT johnloony said:

Feb 7, 2024 13:25:57 GMT andrewp said:

You might want to revise those West Northamptonshire percentages, 5034% might be ambitious.

I blame Kwasi Kwarteng

Don't we all, don't we all...

[Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith]

Feb 7, 2024 12:51:34 GMT johnloony said:

BLAENAU GWENT: Ind 300 Lab 260 Green 80
CHESHIRE EAST UA: Lab 400 Con 90 Grn 110 WEP 20 PCF 160
GWYNEDD UA: Ind 230 Con 110 LD 50 PC 160
WEST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE: Con 1100 Lab 750 LD 350

BLAENAU GWENT: Ind 47 Lab 41 Green 12
CHESHIRE EAST UA: Lab 51 Con 12 Grn 14 WEP 2 PCF 21
GWYNEDD UA: Ind 42 Con 20 LD 9 PC 29
WEST NORTHAMPTONSHIRE: Con 50 Lab 34 LD 16

If I was running the competition I'd be putting the first set of predictions on the spreadsheet, after all they are the first prediction for each seat on the post.

[batman]

BLAENAU GWENT, Ebbw Vale S. : Ind 50 Lab 43 Green 7

CHESHIRE E., Crewe C. : Lab 57 C 22 PCF (NOT the French Communist Party) 13 Green 6 WEP 2

GWYNEDD, Criccieth : Ind 44 PC 42 LD 8 C 6

W.NORTHAMPTONSHIRE, E.Hunsbury & Shelfleys : C 43 Lab 30 LD 27

[Tony Otim]

Blaenau Gwent: Millard 50.9; Lab 41.1; Grn 8.0
Cheshire East: Lab 51.9; Con 22.0; PCF 15.0; WEP 6.9; Grn 4.2
Gwynedd: PC 43.4; Allport 40.8; Con 9.1; LD 6.7
West NOrthants: Con 47.9; Lab 33.8; LD 18.3

[manchesterman]

Blaenau Gwent: Ind 52, Lab 39, Green 9

Cheshire East: Lab 51, PCF 19, Con 20, Green 8, WEP 2

Gwynedd: Ind 40, PC 36, LD 12, Con 12

W Northants: Con 46, Lab 27, LD 27

[andrewp]

Blaenau Gwent. Ind 46 Lab 43 Green 11
Cheshire East. Lab 61 Con 18 PCF 11 Green 8 WEP 2
Gwynedd, Ind 50 PC 39 LD 7 Con 4
Northampton. LD 40 Con 38 Lab 22

[Robert Waller]

Blaenau Gwent. Ind 47 Lab 46 Green 7

Cheshire East. Lab 54 Con 19 PCF 16 Green 7 WEP 4

Gwynedd, Ind 48 PC 41 LD 6 Con 5

Northampton. LD 36 Con 39 Lab 25

[carolus]

Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale South:
Lab 50, Ind 40, Green 10

Cheshire East, Crewe Central:
Lab 55, Con 20, C1st 10, Geen 10, WEP 5

Gwynedd, Criccieth:
Ind 45, PC 40, Con 10, LD 5

West Northamptonshire, East Hunsbury & Shelfleys:
Lab 40, Con 35, LD 25

[casualobserver]

Blaenau Gwent: Lab 46, Ind 44, Grn 10.
Cheshire East: Lab 46, PCF 23, Con 22, Grn 7, WEP 2.
Gwynedd: Ind 47, PC 33, LD 10, Con 10.
West Northamptonshire: Con 39, Lab 36, LD 25.

[corradino]

Blaenau Gwent, Ebbw Vale South: Ind 46, Lab 44. Green 10.

Cheshire East, Crewe Central: Lab 45, Con 39, Crewe First 10, Green 4, WEP 2.

Gwynedd, Criccieth: PC 42, Ind 40, LD 10, Con 8.

W Northants, East Hunsbury & Shelfleys: Con 43, Lab 31, LD 26.


I have gone for a substantial uplift in the Con vote in Crewe on the basis that their candidate has cleverly avoided any reference to the Conservative Party in his leaflets and YouTube video. He has further disguised his affiliation by presenting himself as a sane. practical local bloke.

[peterl]

Blaenau Gwent. Ind 49 Lab 41 Green 10
Cheshire East. Lab 55 Con 19 PCF 18 Green 7 WEP 1
Gwynedd, Ind 52 PC 35 LD 10 Con 3
Northampton. LD 38 Con 32 Lab 30

[rightleaning]

Blaenau Gwent. Ind 49, Lab 42, Green 9
Cheshire East. Lab 52, Con 21, PCF 16, Green 9, WEP 2
Gwynedd, Ind 51, PC 42, LD 4, Con 3
Northampton. LD 42, Con 35, Lab 23

[iainbhx]

Blaenau Gwent WUA, Ebbw Vale South: Lab 50, Ind 42, Grn 8
Cheshire East UA, Crewe Central: Lab 46, Con 25, PCF 22, Grn 5, WEP 2.
Gwynedd WUA, Criccieth: PC 47, Ind 40, LDm 7, Con 6.
West Northamptonshire UA, East Hunsbury & Shelfleys: Con 40, LDm 32, Lab 28.

[robbienicoll]

13 entries to open the month, with peterl and casualobserver returning. All on time and correct.

Ebbw Vale South, Blaenau Gwent: 10 Independent (Millard) win, with carolus, casualobserver and iainbhx Labour gain.

Crewe Central, Cheshire East: 100% Labour hold, with majorities ranging from 6% (corradino) to 43% (andrewp).

Criccieth, Gwynedd: 10 Independent (Allport) win, with corradino, iainbhx and Tony Otim Plaid Cymru gain.

East Hunsbury and Shelfleys, West Northamptonshire: 9 Conservative hold, with andrewp, peterl and Right Leaning Liberal Democrat gain, and carolus Labour gain.

Results available at - docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1_GMwkWSL63HSEpihNSRQOZn6PKJwtcpnloy0JrrFVYc/edit?usp=sharing - good luck to all!

[Robert Waller]

Congratulations to rightleaning for the win in a very difficult week, and also to corradino for a very close second.