neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Sept 2, 2023 13:31:52 GMT
Another example of an absurd and anachronistic system - traditional betting odds. I think the limited scale is bad for both parties, and the drop in use of certain ones (100/6, 29/10, 22/5 for example) appears to be solely designed to rip off punters because it has happened solely to help the overround. I'm not advocating a return to SPs based on tote returns despite the accuracy of them (249/10 at Auteuil yesterday) but it is worth considering why we use fractionals here in the UK and the reluctance of punters to move away from them in most cases. It's also worth noting that fractionals are 'positive' and don't require punters to mentally calculate something based on a 'negative price' as can be the case with, eg, Malay or Indonesian odds. The information is right in front of them and they only have to look at one side of the divider. You don't get that with moneyline or Hong Kong either. Fractions also allow punters to spot value more quickly, although this only works with bookies rather than an exchange. Additionally we should consider that the syndicates use fractions if the stake is not a standard number of points: that the big boys use them gives their use some weight. In sum, you may think fractionals are absurd or anachronistic. You aren't necessarily wrong but it is worth looking at this in the round: each of the main systems- be it moneyline, fractions, decimals, Malay, Indo or HK- has flaws. I compile my own tissue and use a variety of methods, sometimes including tote/parimutel estimates, for pricing but always return to fractions when looking for value. This isn't a straightforward case of 'modern=good, traditional=bad' and it is misguided, at best, to take that position.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 31, 2023 12:56:07 GMT
Sinn Féin did everything right, they say from the start that they're not going to take the Oath, so they can't/won't go through the out of date rigmarole of taking a fictitious job to just resign. The issue is Parliament refusing to modernise. This whole episode is a failure of the system to get with the times. So how do the contracts work?
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 31, 2023 8:45:38 GMT
I have always advocated for a great big reset switch to be hit so this country could eventually enter modern times like the rest of civilization. The fact that MPs can't resign, they don't even have employment contracts, is just symbolic of the Gentlemen's Club way of running the country, an attitude which still anchors us to the days of workhouses and the Empire. I've heard the employment contracts argument several times over the years. For those advocating it, who would be the employer? The House authorities, IPSA, the Crown, an employer of record or something else? How do the notice periods work? And what about redundancy? Is there a collective agreement? Who is responsible for disciplinary action? How does annual leave work? And where is the place of work? What do any variation or mobility clauses look like? Would it simply be a statement of particulars? What are the notice periods? Is there a definition of the role sufficiently flexible not to require a variation clause? What happens if the MP fails to follow a reasonable management request? Everytime I've heard this, I've asked those questions. Not once has the person saying it considered the factors that make up an employment contract. As things stand, any contract would be pretty limited and would need substantial changes to other legislation. And if we don't want legislative changes with knock on effects, then we need some pretty serious root and branch stuff. Otherwise, you'd be...right where we are now.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 26, 2023 19:30:31 GMT
yes. He said that "Maggie Thatcher is closer to my kind of socialism than Jim Callaghan". What Margaret Thatcher made of this is not known. I get the impression that in the late 1970s and 1980s a Lord George-Brown endorsement was something parties really, really, really wanted... ...for their opponents. Was it Healey who said something like "Moscow is hoping for a Labour victory" in 1983?
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 23, 2023 19:18:35 GMT
The SNP did replace all the regional police authorities with Police Scotland And what a success that turned out to be ... er ... Have they got their VAT back yet?
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 22, 2023 16:11:23 GMT
St Austell occasionally produce a mild called Cornish Cream. I used to drink it in a social club in Plymouth until around 2009 when it disappeared but I know that it's popped up since. It was absolutely cracking, far better than the Mouldy and Bilious Mild and the Courage Mild I was selling at the time. Is that what used to be called XXXX? I believe so. Cream is though. I'm not usually a nitrokeg fan but both were decent enough. They also do a collaboration with Roddas which sounds less appealing.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 22, 2023 3:48:50 GMT
St Austell occasionally produce a mild called Cornish Cream. I used to drink it in a social club in Plymouth until around 2009 when it disappeared but I know that it's popped up since. It was absolutely cracking, far better than the Mouldy and Bilious Mild and the Courage Mild I was selling at the time.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 21, 2023 11:38:08 GMT
M&B were of course part of the Bass empire, which got bought up by Coors*. Another bitter, brewed in Tadcaster, was Brew Ten "for the men of the north". It wasn't distinguished. Stones' bitter, brewed in Sheffield, was reckoned to be much better. Having Brew XI brewed by Brains is probably no bad thing, but you don't see it around much any more even in pubs run by the Mitchells and Butlers group (Ember Inns, for example), whereas before the Beer Orders it was ubiquitous. * along with Charringtons, Worthington, Welsh Brewers, Tennents and Stones.
i wonder if there were ever brews 1-9? Bass had numbers that were local: I have some old labels somewhere from Bass No.3 which was the Plymouth version. As far as I can tell this was just a variation in caramel to account for local tastes.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 21, 2023 9:34:04 GMT
Brew XI ('for the Men of the Midlands') is brewed under licence by Brains. When I worked for MAB there was a discussion about setting up a brewery again but it didn't get very far, which was probably for the best as I suspect it would produce horrible hop water under the guise of craft beer. I seem to recall hearing that the original brand names/trademarks were owned by Coors anyway.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 19, 2023 16:07:34 GMT
Citizens Assemblies are whatever the person proposing them wants them to be. In another life, Hallam would be the kind of man who proposes plebiscites.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 19, 2023 14:54:20 GMT
It was over complicated and very rarely ever changed a result Oh boy. Should we abolish HMRC self-assessments too? They are overly complicated too. They are, as those of us who have to do them will attest. Definitely time for simplicity. This is a terrible example for you to use as literally everyone who does one wants to abolish the current process.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 19, 2023 14:29:30 GMT
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 18, 2023 14:09:28 GMT
Has there been any confirmation Steve Rotheram will run for re-election here yet? I expect he'll want to hang on to see bus franchising in place, whether or not Knowsley Council like how it's funded. I wish he would stop the awful American practice of his press office referring to him as Mayor Rotheram, which the local media now do as well.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 17, 2023 16:48:17 GMT
The might be a half-decent chance of a Lib Dem challenge, given recent local government results in this area. Indeed, if the Lib Dems can put up someone who can appeal in both Slough and MK (which is doable) then they are in contention because the Bucks/Oxon 'well educated vote' is already on their side and just needs a nudge. Importantly, from my perspective anyway, Thames Valley Police need a bit of a shake up and a commissioner who has a slightly different set of priorities, albeit ones I might not share, could get things moving. The force generally is quite responsive to what you might call community priorities but the people who run things at Kidlington maybe aren't cut from the same cloth as the average copper. Lots of pushback to ideas when I was involved with Pub Watch even though the local teams were in agreement and far too much reliance on station based activities.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 16, 2023 22:56:43 GMT
I love Casablanca - the wonderful acting, the joy that is Claude Rains as Captain Louis Renault, the wonderful cast, and the remarkably moving moment when they sing the Marseillaise in the club, realising that many of the supporting cast are refugees from the Nazi invasion of France, make it one of the outstanding films of any generation. All shot in wartime. The young woman's tears here were real: Casablanca is one of the great joys. I've watched it at least yearly since I was 14 or 15. Many films win awards or praise for all sorts of reasons. Of these, some are a brilliant romp with a thin story or hammy acting, some are technically brilliant but just very meh, some are so of their time that they look dated within a few years (I rewatched All The King's Men one night last week, a good example of that), some are a tour de force but need to be actively and constantly watched, some are just rubbish and don't deserve the praise they get, some are long winded and you lose interest. Casablanca is that rare beast- a bloody good film that stands exclusively on its own merit.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 16, 2023 22:36:59 GMT
Tunbridge Wells, Pembury (2027). David Hayward, Tunbridge Wells Alliance to Independents for Tunbridge Wells. Splitters!
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 16, 2023 21:21:46 GMT
Perhaps now that he's found a job where people seem to like him he might not want to give it up.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 16, 2023 20:01:49 GMT
How many individuals are net contributors, personally? It can't be more than a few thousand at any one time given how few people are responsible for the bulk of, eg, income tax where the top 10% are responsible for just under two thirds of receipts and presumably a similar chunk of VAT. Depends how you define net contributor. The work done by the Centre for Policy Studies about 12 years ago indicated that roughly the top two quintiles were net contributors. I think you'd have to have a somewhat odd definition to have it just be "a few thousand" as there are about 300,000 in the top 1% of taxpayers with an income in excess of 160,000. I also think you'll find that VAT doesn't have the same distribution because of the effects of the increased personal allowances on income tax and the nature of VAT spending. Obviously slightly out of date, but Figure 5 in this IFS report shows different patterns. As you say, it depends on how you define 'net contributor.' The number of individuals who have paid in more than the value of taxpayer funded, state provided services received over their lifetime to the measurement point must be very low. I'm not sure how else net contributor could be defined. Of the 300,000 people you refer to, a majority will have received some form of healthcare and some form of education (probably to an advanced level) provided by the state in addition to road and infrastructure use, and may very well be expensive to keep well (or indeed alive) once they get past 65. Even if they do pay more in, in total, than they have ever got out, in total, they won't reach that until later in life, at which point they start getting a direct cash transfer from the taxpayer which partly resets the clock. And if any of them work or have worked in the public sector then net contribution goes out of the window. I stick by my assertion that the number of lifetime absolute net contributors is low.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 16, 2023 18:12:31 GMT
Nobody who calls for reducing the franchise should be treated with respect unless the range of people they want to deny the vote to includes themselves. Even then, they should be ignored, but ignored more respectfully than is otherwise the case. And why is that? What is inherently ridiculous about believing that other people should be denied the vote? I see no reason why the intelligent, hardworking and productive should be governed according to the wishes of the stupid, idle and unproductive. As a bare minimum I would restrict the franchise to those who are net tax contributors with some possible exceptions for those who serve the nation in valuable ways. How many individuals are net contributors, personally? It can't be more than a few thousand at any one time given how few people are responsible for the bulk of, eg, income tax where the top 10% are responsible for just under two thirds of receipts and presumably a similar chunk of VAT.
|
|
neilm
Non-Aligned
Posts: 25,023
|
Post by neilm on Aug 16, 2023 16:07:25 GMT
If we weren't all here agreeing that the election process was useless, we'd be spending all our time agreeing that the PCC posts themselves are a total waste of time. Although they wouldn't be if they were operational. That's the the main problem.
|
|