J.G.Harston
Lib Dem
Leave-voting Brexit-supporting Liberal Democrat
Posts: 13,723
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Post by J.G.Harston on Apr 30, 2024 14:17:18 GMT
Yes, because these are now to a significant degree PERSONAL contests. Back in 2017 both Street and Houchen were barely known - and they also actually campaigned as Tories (remember them?) This really isn't hard to understand, so I don't know why an obviously intelligent person like yourself so disingenuously pretends not to. And wasn't the entire point of introducing metro mayors *was* to make the contests and position personal? "Get some enthusiastic local who will bypass the staid political parties" stuff.
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 39
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Post by Raddy on Apr 30, 2024 14:42:29 GMT
I think you were all going to look silly anyway, he got 70% last time for reason. It just seems most of you think Private Eye etc al are some sort of Oracles. I hope a suitable apology to the ladies in Darlington are forthcoming from all you experts in due course. There is seemingly a lot to be learnt by 'experts' from the views of people on the Darlington omnibus. On a serious point would anybody like to offer an opinion on the science, methodology and analysis that had Houchen down amongst the dead men at 30% just a week or so ago. A rigged poll to attempt to change perceptions and momentum. Indeed, which lays the lie that polls are scientific. Somebody nearly always pays for any given poll, and the individuals running polls often have their own agenda such as Professor Goodwin. They may use scientific methods to analyse the data, but if the data is questionable because of vested interests involved in it's collection, then the accusation of being a rigged poll could apply to most of them.
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Post by carlton43 on Apr 30, 2024 15:35:59 GMT
A rigged poll to attempt to change perceptions and momentum. Indeed, which lays the lie that polls are scientific. Somebody nearly always pays for any given poll, and the individuals running polls often have their own agenda such as Professor Goodwin. They may use scientific methods to analyse the data, but if the data is questionable because of vested interests involved in it's collection, then the accusation of being a rigged poll could apply to most of them. I have never thought them to be that scientific or very useful for anything at all. I see them to be transactional with a payment and I am sure there have been instances of a deliberate slant and still are. But they get the general picture trend pretty well if you like that sort of thing. Probably not actually very corrupt but a bit.
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Post by michaelarden on Apr 30, 2024 18:21:06 GMT
A rigged poll to attempt to change perceptions and momentum. Indeed, which lays the lie that polls are scientific. Somebody nearly always pays for any given poll, and the individuals running polls often have their own agenda such as Professor Goodwin. They may use scientific methods to analyse the data, but if the data is questionable because of vested interests involved in it's collection, then the accusation of being a rigged poll could apply to most of them. The British Polling Council says 'Hi'!
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,130
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Post by maxque on Apr 30, 2024 22:26:59 GMT
This is why Houchen will win. Two days before polling day a joint Mayor/PCC leaflet has just dropped on the mat. Chris McEwan is promoting two policies to get people to vote for him 1. Invest in CCTV to make our streets safe again. 2. Bring back free parking to breathe life into struggling town centres. What stunning vision, I'm sure the polling booths will be inundated with voters supporting him. It's not just that Houchen is a man that gets things done in the eyes of the population of the Tees Valley, this pathetic offer from Labour to the public, from a lifetime public sector employee speaks volumes about the parochial views of some politicians. He is even more useless than Jacobs who stood for Labour last time. Should this message bear an imprint?
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john07
Labour & Co-operative
Posts: 14,640
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Post by john07 on Apr 30, 2024 23:08:15 GMT
Yes, because these are now to a significant degree PERSONAL contests. Back in 2017 both Street and Houchen were barely known - and they also actually campaigned as Tories (remember them?) This really isn't hard to understand, so I don't know why an obviously intelligent person like yourself so disingenuously pretends not to. And wasn't the entire point of introducing metro mayors *was* to make the contests and position personal? "Get some enthusiastic local who will bypass the staid political parties" stuff. It was indeed. This happened when Ken Livingstone won London as an Independent.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,280
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 9:49:45 GMT
The turnout in Middlesbrough was 27%, in Stockton 34%, Redcar and Cleveland 29%, Hartlepool 28% and Darlington 33%
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,280
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 10:16:14 GMT
Hartlepool
Houchen (Con) 10074 McEwan (Lab) 8732 Thorley (Lib Dem) 972
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 3, 2024 10:23:09 GMT
Houchen 50.9%, McEwan 44.2%. Turnout a fair bit down on 2021, but looks like a 19% swing, which if replicated across the authority would shake out at something like 52-43 to Houchen?
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,280
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 10:29:04 GMT
Redcar and Cleveland Ben Houchen (Conservative) - 15,987 (53.9%) Chris McEwan (Labour) - 12,015 (45.5%) Simon Thorley (Liberal Democrat) - 1,639 (5.5%)
2021 Con 75% Lab 25% 18.3% swing
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Post by bluelabour on May 3, 2024 10:29:47 GMT
Redcar and Cleveland
Houchen 15,987 McEwan 12,015 Thorley 1,639
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on May 3, 2024 10:32:36 GMT
As a comparison, in the council elections in Hartlepool, Labour received 9274 votes, the Conservatives 4911 and everybody else (mostly a mixture of independents and Reform UK) received 5738.
So a naive analysis of that would conclude that McEwan managed to keep most of the local Labour vote, but that the independent and Reform votes almost entirely went to Houchen. It's hard to conclude how much of that is reflective of a personal vote versus the independent vote being mostly right-of-centre anyway, but turnout was also slightly higher in the mayoral contest and it's probably fair to say that's down to Houchen.
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Post by bluelabour on May 3, 2024 10:32:55 GMT
Middlesbrough Houchen 13,285 McEwan 12,749 Thorley 1,390
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,280
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Post by andrea on May 3, 2024 10:35:54 GMT
Middlesbrough Houchen 13,285 McEwan 12,749 Thorley 1,390 It was the best Labour area last time.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 3, 2024 11:07:33 GMT
BBC Reporting likely Con hold, result shortly
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 3, 2024 11:28:25 GMT
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 3, 2024 11:32:27 GMT
16% swing against Houchen.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 3, 2024 11:34:15 GMT
Con 54% Lab 41% LD 5%
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 3, 2024 11:36:27 GMT
Hey we keep our deposit! Result.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on May 3, 2024 11:37:12 GMT
No messing with the two ladies from Darlington.
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