|
Post by stb12 on Apr 29, 2024 20:08:01 GMT
Increasingly we're seeing mayors personal ratings diverge from party ones. Which is why they were introduced You can even go back to 2012 and Boris winning against the tide of some very difficult local results for the Tories, even if Livingstone being the candidate again helped
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,005
|
Post by graham on Apr 29, 2024 20:13:50 GMT
Increasingly we're seeing mayors personal ratings diverge from party ones. Which is why they were introduced You can even go back to 2012 and Boris winning against the tide of some very difficult local results for the Tories, even if Livingstone being the candidate again helped On the other hand, Livingstone was still quite popular in 2008 yet failed to see off Johnson.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Apr 29, 2024 20:26:32 GMT
You can even go back to 2012 and Boris winning against the tide of some very difficult local results for the Tories, even if Livingstone being the candidate again helped On the other hand, Livingstone was still quite popular in 2008 yet failed to see off Johnson. Boris was quite suited to a mayoral style campaign, whatever his obvious flaws even back then
|
|
Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 39
|
Post by Raddy on Apr 30, 2024 10:35:15 GMT
We're all going to look very silly when nobody in Hartlepool, Stockton, Middlesbrough and Redcar & Cleveland bothers voting and Houchen sweeps to a landslide based on two votes from Darlington. I think you were all going to look silly anyway, he got 70% last time for reason. It just seems most of you think Private Eye etc al are some sort of Oracles. I hope a suitable apology to the ladies in Darlington are forthcoming from all you experts in due course. There is seemingly a lot to be learnt by 'experts' from the views of people on the Darlington omnibus. On a serious point would anybody like to offer an opinion on the science, methodology and analysis that had Houchen down amongst the dead men at 30% just a week or so ago.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,819
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 30, 2024 10:44:35 GMT
He got 73% last time, and could still win now, because he has a very effective PR machine (including a basically servile local media)
Nobody has ever denied that.
And btw we all said that the "poll" you cite there was unbelievable rubbish.
|
|
Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 39
|
Post by Raddy on Apr 30, 2024 10:48:01 GMT
This is why Houchen will win. Two days before polling day a joint Mayor/PCC leaflet has just dropped on the mat.
Chris McEwan is promoting two policies to get people to vote for him
1. Invest in CCTV to make our streets safe again.
2. Bring back free parking to breathe life into struggling town centres.
What stunning vision, I'm sure the polling booths will be inundated with voters supporting him.
It's not just that Houchen is a man that gets things done in the eyes of the population of the Tees Valley, this pathetic offer from Labour to the public, from a lifetime public sector employee speaks volumes about the parochial views of some politicians. He is even more useless than Jacobs who stood for Labour last time.
|
|
European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
|
Post by European Lefty on Apr 30, 2024 10:48:26 GMT
We're all going to look very silly when nobody in Hartlepool, Stockton, Middlesbrough and Redcar & Cleveland bothers voting and Houchen sweeps to a landslide based on two votes from Darlington. I think you were all going to look silly anyway, he got 70% last time for reason. It just seems most of you think Private Eye etc al are some sort of Oracles. I hope a suitable apology to the ladies in Darlington are forthcoming from all you experts in due course. There is seemingly a lot to be learnt by 'experts' from the views of people on the Darlington omnibus. On a serious point would anybody like to offer an opinion on the science, methodology and analysis that had Houchen down amongst the dead men at 30% just a week or so ago. It really isn't difficult to find two people for a vox pop. I could stand in the middle of Boston interviewing people and dig up two Corbyn-loving remainers or two committed Reform voters in Clifton in Bristol easily. You just have to stand there a while and edit out the people who don't fit the view you want to push. They are useful for nothing
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,005
|
Post by graham on Apr 30, 2024 10:49:28 GMT
Back in May 2017 Theresa May and the Tories were 20% ahead in the polls and appeared likely to win a big majority at the GE held a month later.At the Mayoral elections for West Midlands and Teeside Andy Street and Ben Houchen both managed to just squeak over the line. Yesterday's Yougov poll implies a swing to the Tories in both areas compared with 2017 - despite a very different national polling backdrop.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,819
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 30, 2024 10:55:12 GMT
Yes, because these are now to a significant degree PERSONAL contests.
Back in 2017 both Street and Houchen were barely known - and they also actually campaigned as Tories (remember them?)
This really isn't hard to understand, so I don't know why an obviously intelligent person like yourself so disingenuously pretends not to.
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Apr 30, 2024 10:59:19 GMT
Yes, because these are now to a significant degree PERSONAL contests. Back in 2017 both Street and Houchen were barely known - and they also actually campaigned as Tories (remember them?) This really isn't hard to understand, so I don't know why an obviously intelligent person like yourself so disingenuously pretends not to. You can even throw in the fact that both were new roles, so there was no individual or even party incumbency factor at all
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 30, 2024 11:19:44 GMT
Since metro mayors were brought in, only two have been defeated for re-election: Livingstone and James Palmer. The London mayor is perhaps a little different (much higher national profile and greater powers) and Palmer wouldn't have lost under FPTP. There is clearly a strong advantage for incumbents.
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,005
|
Post by graham on Apr 30, 2024 11:29:17 GMT
Yes, because these are now to a significant degree PERSONAL contests. Back in 2017 both Street and Houchen were barely known - and they also actually campaigned as Tories (remember them?) This really isn't hard to understand, so I don't know why an obviously intelligent person like yourself so disingenuously pretends not to. I am well aware that the personal vote will be a factor. However, in May 2017 the Tories were 20% ahead nationally with Labour now enjoying a similar margin That represents a 20% swing over the seven year period. How likely is a swing of such magnitude to be offset by a personal vote?
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Apr 30, 2024 11:35:07 GMT
Since metro mayors were brought in, only two have been defeated for re-election: Livingstone and James Palmer. The London mayor is perhaps a little different (much higher national profile and greater powers) and Palmer wouldn't have lost under FPTP. There is clearly a strong advantage for incumbents. You see it in the US which obviously has a much longer term system of direct leader type elections ie Mayors and Governors. The incumbent generally has an advantage and can regularly buck the national trend, most of the time any defeats that do happen are more down to the individual themselves being unpopular
|
|
|
Post by stb12 on Apr 30, 2024 11:37:35 GMT
Yes, because these are now to a significant degree PERSONAL contests. Back in 2017 both Street and Houchen were barely known - and they also actually campaigned as Tories (remember them?) This really isn't hard to understand, so I don't know why an obviously intelligent person like yourself so disingenuously pretends not to. I am well aware that the personal vote will be a factor. However, in May 2017 the Tories were 20% ahead nationally with Labour now enjoying a similar margin That represents a 20% swing over the seven year period. How likely is a swing of such magnitude to be offset by a personal vote? The mayoral system is very different from an MP or even councillor who might have a personal vote as then it’s just one constituency as part of a larger group. A mayor is out there on their own in so many ways so it’s easier to distance from the national picture
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,819
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 30, 2024 11:40:59 GMT
And again, for the hard of realising - NEITHER OF THEM ARE CAMPAIGNING AS TORIES, in the slightest way whatsoever.
Even the legally required imprints in their spiel (informing us that, in fact, they are) are so tiny that you can barely see them.
|
|
graham
Non-Aligned
Posts: 1,005
|
Post by graham on Apr 30, 2024 11:49:39 GMT
And again, for the hard of realising - NEITHER OF THEM ARE CAMPAIGNING AS TORIES, in the slightest way whatsoever. Even the legally required imprints in their spiel (informing us that, in fact, they are) are so tiny that you can barely see them. But they are labelled as Tories by their opponents and everybody is likely to know they were elected as Tories!
|
|
|
Post by batman on Apr 30, 2024 11:50:45 GMT
interesting to see whether some voters will hesitate when they see the normal-sized Conservative Party emblem on their ballot papers.
|
|
The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,819
Member is Online
|
Post by The Bishop on Apr 30, 2024 12:23:36 GMT
That is actually a very good point.
|
|
|
Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 30, 2024 12:26:15 GMT
Yes, because these are now to a significant degree PERSONAL contests. Back in 2017 both Street and Houchen were barely known - and they also actually campaigned as Tories (remember them?) This really isn't hard to understand, so I don't know why an obviously intelligent person like yourself so disingenuously pretends not to. I am well aware that the personal vote will be a factor. However, in May 2017 the Tories were 20% ahead nationally with Labour now enjoying a similar margin That represents a 20% swing over the seven year period. How likely is a swing of such magnitude to be offset by a personal vote? You can answer that by comparing the votes received by the Tory candidates for Cleveland and West Midlands PCCs and the votes received by Houchen and Street. It's clearly quite a considerable amount, even when the Tories are popular and hence had more people who would vote for the party regardless of candidate.
|
|
|
Post by carlton43 on Apr 30, 2024 13:21:05 GMT
We're all going to look very silly when nobody in Hartlepool, Stockton, Middlesbrough and Redcar & Cleveland bothers voting and Houchen sweeps to a landslide based on two votes from Darlington. I think you were all going to look silly anyway, he got 70% last time for reason. It just seems most of you think Private Eye etc al are some sort of Oracles. I hope a suitable apology to the ladies in Darlington are forthcoming from all you experts in due course. There is seemingly a lot to be learnt by 'experts' from the views of people on the Darlington omnibus. On a serious point would anybody like to offer an opinion on the science, methodology and analysis that had Houchen down amongst the dead men at 30% just a week or so ago. A rigged poll to attempt to change perceptions and momentum.
|
|