Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,240
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Post by Chris from Brum on Apr 28, 2024 18:12:36 GMT
Feels like a bluff. If Houchen isn't vulnerable now, then when? But perhaps nobody on Teesside reads Private Eye.
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 39
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Post by Raddy on Apr 28, 2024 19:12:36 GMT
Labour claims to have conceded defeat in the Tees Valley. Party officials say they are pulling activists out and redeploying them in the West Midlands, where the future of Street, the Tory mayor who is running a highly personal campaign devoid of Conservative branding, is on a knife edge. Labour has been hamstrung by the dire performance of the Labour-run Birmingham council and by opposition to Sir Keir Starmer’s stance on the war in Gaza. “Houchen will win,” a Labour source said. “We are pulling people out. It’s 50-50 in the West Midlands.” Smacks of expectations management at this stage… but maybe they’re seeing something others aren’t and it’s a genuine insight. All they are seeing is what is blatantly obvious to anybody discussing the issue with an open mind. Recently two middle aged women on Darlington were asked who they would be voting for. They both said they hated the Tories, but would be voting for Houchen because he is the best candidate, and he has carried out, and is continuing his promise to bring jobs to the area, what he has promised at both previous elections. Like him or loathe him for his politics as activists do, but the people of the Tees Valley are only interested in voting for somebody who gets things done. Perhaps if Labour had put forward a candidate with at least a teaspoon of charisma and ambition things may well be different. But to offer a candidate whose primary ambition is seemingly to improve the bus service doesn't exactly inspire against somebody like Houchen with vision
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 28, 2024 19:14:00 GMT
I came across it on PoliticalBetting.com It’s in the Sunday Times today too.
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European Lefty
Labour
Can be bribed with salted liquorice
Posts: 5,666
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Post by European Lefty on Apr 28, 2024 19:14:38 GMT
Smacks of expectations management at this stage… but maybe they’re seeing something others aren’t and it’s a genuine insight. All they are seeing is what is blatantly obvious to anybody discussing the issue with an open mind. Recently two middle aged women on Darlington were asked who they would be voting for. They both said they hated the Tories, but would be voting for Houchen because he is the best candidate, and he has carried out, and is continuing his promise to bring jobs to the area, what he has promised at both previous elections. Like him or loathe him for his politics as activists do, but the people of the Tees Valley are only interested in voting for somebody who gets things done. Perhaps if Labour had put forward a candidate with at least a teaspoon of charisma and ambition things may well be different. But to offer a candidate whose primary ambition is seemingly to improve the bus service doesn't exactly inspire against somebody like Houchen with vision Oh yeah that sounds like really solid evidence that does
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Post by batman on Apr 28, 2024 19:30:24 GMT
Smacks of expectations management at this stage… but maybe they’re seeing something others aren’t and it’s a genuine insight. All they are seeing is what is blatantly obvious to anybody discussing the issue with an open mind. Recently two middle aged women on Darlington were asked who they would be voting for. They both said they hated the Tories, but would be voting for Houchen because he is the best candidate, and he has carried out, and is continuing his promise to bring jobs to the area, what he has promised at both previous elections. Like him or loathe him for his politics as activists do, but the people of the Tees Valley are only interested in voting for somebody who gets things done. Perhaps if Labour had put forward a candidate with at least a teaspoon of charisma and ambition things may well be different. But to offer a candidate whose primary ambition is seemingly to improve the bus service doesn't exactly inspire against somebody like Houchen with vision so you think 2 vox pops trump a scientifically compiled opinion poll? It's clear that Houchen is running ahead of his party, but I can't see it being all that clear-cut.
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 39
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Post by Raddy on Apr 28, 2024 20:17:46 GMT
All they are seeing is what is blatantly obvious to anybody discussing the issue with an open mind. Recently two middle aged women on Darlington were asked who they would be voting for. They both said they hated the Tories, but would be voting for Houchen because he is the best candidate, and he has carried out, and is continuing his promise to bring jobs to the area, what he has promised at both previous elections. Like him or loathe him for his politics as activists do, but the people of the Tees Valley are only interested in voting for somebody who gets things done. Perhaps if Labour had put forward a candidate with at least a teaspoon of charisma and ambition things may well be different. But to offer a candidate whose primary ambition is seemingly to improve the bus service doesn't exactly inspire against somebody like Houchen with vision Oh yeah that sounds like really solid evidence that does I would suggest the opinions of two electors publicly interviewed is more evidence based than the recent poll discussed on here that had McEwan winning by a canter and Houchen down around 30%. Solid evidence, as opposed to partisan polling, partisan canvassing or partisan anorak opinion. If Labour have pulled some of their canvassing, what was that decision based on, as they have been invisible canvassing outside of what they perceive to be their old traditional Labour areas.
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Post by batman on Apr 28, 2024 20:27:10 GMT
You really think that two electors constitute solid evidence? God bless you, as Bertie Wooster would have said.
And this story about Labour pulling out their canvassers is unattributed & I would respectfully suggest is bollocks.
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Raddy
Non-Aligned
Posts: 39
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Post by Raddy on Apr 28, 2024 20:43:35 GMT
All they are seeing is what is blatantly obvious to anybody discussing the issue with an open mind. Recently two middle aged women on Darlington were asked who they would be voting for. They both said they hated the Tories, but would be voting for Houchen because he is the best candidate, and he has carried out, and is continuing his promise to bring jobs to the area, what he has promised at both previous elections. Like him or loathe him for his politics as activists do, but the people of the Tees Valley are only interested in voting for somebody who gets things done. Perhaps if Labour had put forward a candidate with at least a teaspoon of charisma and ambition things may well be different. But to offer a candidate whose primary ambition is seemingly to improve the bus service doesn't exactly inspire against somebody like Houchen with vision so you think 2 vox pops trump a scientifically compiled opinion poll? It's clear that Houchen is running ahead of his party, but I can't see it being all that clear-cut. "Scientifically compiled opinion poll". Which one would that be? Many on here only believe the 'Scientifically compiled opinion poll' if it reinforces their opinion, otherwise it becomes a pollster that can't be trusted, or there are question marks over their polling methodology or interpretation of data. Polling seems to be the only occupation where most of the players are often way off the mark, but claim victory by being the least wrong.
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Post by gwynthegriff on Apr 28, 2024 20:51:41 GMT
You really think that two electors constitute solid evidence? God bless you, as Bertie Wooster would have said. And this story about Labour pulling out their canvassers is unattributed & I would respectfully suggest is bollocks. Other than a small number of staffers it's hard to credit there's a pool of canvassers who can be switched from Tees-side to the West Midlands.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 28, 2024 20:51:54 GMT
so you think 2 vox pops trump a scientifically compiled opinion poll? It's clear that Houchen is running ahead of his party, but I can't see it being all that clear-cut. "Scientifically compiled opinion poll". Which one would that be? Many on here only believe the 'Scientifically compiled opinion poll' if it reinforces their opinion, otherwise it becomes a pollster that can't be trusted, or there are question marks over their polling methodology or interpretation of data. Polling seems to be the only occupation where most of the players are often way off the mark, but claim victory by being the least wrong. Polling the mayoral elections is difficult and I don't think anybody expects it to be entirely accurate, except perhaps if two errors cancel each other out. It's just that we consider you to be even less credible than that.
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ricmk
Lib Dem
Posts: 2,341
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Post by ricmk on Apr 28, 2024 23:49:53 GMT
The Sunday Times article is by Tim Shipman - his sources are much better in Tory circles than Labour ones. If he was writing that the Tories were giving up here, I'd take it a lot more seriously than saying Labour are, especially given the poll that says otherwise.
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Post by batman on Apr 29, 2024 13:45:47 GMT
A feature in Labour List very much contradicts this weird rumour. Chris McEwan says that there are more canvassers than usual out for Labour. But of course there were 2 women in a bus in Darlington who said they are voting for Houchen so nothing really matters, as Freddie Mercury once opined.
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Post by East Anglian Lefty on Apr 29, 2024 14:36:15 GMT
We're all going to look very silly when nobody in Hartlepool, Stockton, Middlesbrough and Redcar & Cleveland bothers voting and Houchen sweeps to a landslide based on two votes from Darlington.
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Sg1
Conservative
Posts: 835
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Post by Sg1 on Apr 29, 2024 14:36:30 GMT
A feature in Labour List very much contradicts this weird rumour. Chris McEwan says that there are more canvassers than usual out for Labour. But of course there were 2 women in a bus in Darlington who said they are voting for Houchen so nothing really matters, as Freddie Mercury once opined. If Houchen wins with a 2 vote majority we know who to thank or blame depending on your leanings.
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Post by batman on Apr 29, 2024 15:02:09 GMT
Not long since the Mayoralty of Mansfield was decided by two votes. Probably those voters were originally from Darlo.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Apr 29, 2024 17:16:44 GMT
Sky reporting a YouGovpoll
Tees Valley Mayoral Election Ben Houchen, Conservative 51% Chris McEwan, Labour 44% Simon Thorley, Liberal Democrat 5%
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Post by swingometer on Apr 29, 2024 17:21:23 GMT
Sky reporting a YouGovpoll Tees Valley Mayoral Election Ben Houchen, Conservative 51% Chris McEwan, Labour 44% Simon Thorley, Liberal Democrat 5% Always knew Houchen was gonna win through
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on Apr 29, 2024 17:56:00 GMT
He can enjoy the "fruits" of office for about 6 months before the NAO is sent in by a different government. . Bit if a difference from last time though.
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graham
Non-Aligned
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Post by graham on Apr 29, 2024 18:16:06 GMT
He can enjoy the "fruits" of office for about 6 months before the NAO is sent in by a different government. . Bit if a difference from last time though. It does add some credence to what appeared in the STimes. It iplies the Tories will do better on Thursday here than at the 2017 Mayoral election when Theresa May appeared to be riding high a month before the June GE. The same applies to what Yougov now predicts for the West Midlands.
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Post by mattbewilson on Apr 29, 2024 18:19:48 GMT
Increasingly we're seeing mayors personal ratings diverge from party ones. Which is why they were introduced
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