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Post by alderman on May 4, 2024 15:56:08 GMT
First Lib Dem constituency seat in the London Assembly So a Lib Dem falls off the list allocation?
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Post by rogerg on May 4, 2024 16:08:18 GMT
First Lib Dem constituency seat in the London Assembly So a Lib Dem falls off the list allocation? Yes - so Mayoral candidate Rob Blackie won't get on unless there are enough list votes for 3.
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cogload
Lib Dem
I jumped in the river and what did I see...
Posts: 8,252
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Post by cogload on May 4, 2024 17:25:47 GMT
First Lib Dem constituency seat in the London Assembly Has there ever been a time when a non Tory/Labour candidate succeeded in a constituency seat?
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Post by stb12 on May 4, 2024 17:28:51 GMT
First Lib Dem constituency seat in the London Assembly Has there ever been a time when a non Tory/Labour candidate succeeded in a constituency seat? Off the top of my head I don’t believe so
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 4, 2024 17:33:46 GMT
First Lib Dem constituency seat in the London Assembly Has there ever been a time when a non Tory/Labour candidate succeeded in a constituency seat? He is the first non Lab/Con constituency member ever.
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Post by evergreenadam on May 4, 2024 17:34:01 GMT
First Lib Dem constituency seat in the London Assembly Has there ever been a time when a non Tory/Labour candidate succeeded in a constituency seat? No.
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Post by batman on May 4, 2024 19:29:57 GMT
It's going to be interesting next time. The LDs won't be able to do the "only we can beat the Tories" as Labour did so also. With a bit of luck we will actually have a campaign where both sides indulge in actual political debate rather than bar charts. The Tories will hope to be more popular in 2028, increase their vote & come through the middle, but there is absolutely no guarantee that they will be more popular at that time.
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Post by evergreenadam on May 4, 2024 19:39:46 GMT
It's going to be interesting next time. The LDs won't be able to do the "only we can beat the Tories" as Labour did so also. With a bit of luck we will actually have a campaign where both sides indulge in actual political debate rather than bar charts. The Tories will hope to be more popular in 2028, increase their vote & come through the middle, but there is absolutely no guarantee that they will be more popular at that time. I think the fact that the Tories have finally been beaten in SW will help to galvanise support across the 3 boroughs behind whichever candidate is most likely to beat them. I think that is unlikely to be Labour in the near future. The Tories have been reduced to winning just 3 Assembly constituency seats and even Croydon & Sutton is trending away from them in the longer term.
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Post by evergreenadam on May 4, 2024 19:47:33 GMT
Look forward to seeing the ward breakdowns for this seat, when London Elects publishes their spreadsheet. In particular I’d like to know where those Reform voters are based. I’m guessing a good proportion were from Feltham, Hanworth and Bedfont where the right usually gains traction.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on May 4, 2024 19:48:15 GMT
Look forward to seeing the ward breakdowns for this seat, when London Elects publishes their spreadsheet. In particular I’d like to know where those Reform voters are based. I’m guessing a good proportion were from Feltham, Hanworth and Bedfont where the right usually gains traction. There will be no ward breakdowns.
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Post by bjornhattan on May 4, 2024 20:00:52 GMT
Look forward to seeing the ward breakdowns for this seat, when London Elects publishes their spreadsheet. In particular I’d like to know where those Reform voters are based. I’m guessing a good proportion were from Feltham, Hanworth and Bedfont where the right usually gains traction. Sadly we won't know for sure because there won't be any breakdowns. However I'd imagine Reform did perform strongly in Feltham as you say, and also expect them to have done reasonably in Chessington and perhaps parts of Tolworth and Hampton.
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Post by sirnorfolkpassmore on May 4, 2024 20:07:31 GMT
It's going to be interesting next time. The LDs won't be able to do the "only we can beat the Tories" as Labour did so also. With a bit of luck we will actually have a campaign where both sides indulge in actual political debate rather than bar charts. The Tories will hope to be more popular in 2028, increase their vote & come through the middle, but there is absolutely no guarantee that they will be more popular at that time. That's rather naive in terms of how campaigning works. The fact the constituency was Conservative until they lost it to them is surely all the tactical argument Roberts and the Lib Dems need next time? The fact Labour were very narrowly second in a fairly poor election for the Conservatives, and did well in the top up, is too complex to sell. It was Tory, and is now Lib Dem is simple.
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Post by evergreenadam on May 4, 2024 22:00:17 GMT
Look forward to seeing the ward breakdowns for this seat, when London Elects publishes their spreadsheet. In particular I’d like to know where those Reform voters are based. I’m guessing a good proportion were from Feltham, Hanworth and Bedfont where the right usually gains traction. Sadly we won't know for sure because there won't be any breakdowns. However I'd imagine Reform did perform strongly in Feltham as you say, and also expect them to have done reasonably in Chessington and perhaps parts of Tolworth and Hampton. Why no breakdowns this time around? That’s the most fun part of a GLA election!
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Post by johnloony on May 4, 2024 23:10:21 GMT
Sadly we won't know for sure because there won't be any breakdowns. However I'd imagine Reform did perform strongly in Feltham as you say, and also expect them to have done reasonably in Chessington and perhaps parts of Tolworth and Hampton. Why no breakdowns this time around? That’s the most fun part of a GLA election! Because the votes are not being counted by scanning machines, and it is therefore logistically much more difficult to arrange the count in such a way as to get ward subtotals. In other words, because the people who set up the GLA system were suffering from the delusion of thinking that it's for the purpose of serving the people and administering policies, rather than for the purpose of providing data for psephologists.
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Adam
Non-Aligned
Posts: 70
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Post by Adam on May 5, 2024 8:44:41 GMT
Why would the leader of a borough council, with some decision-making power in local affairs, want to a member of a toothless body like the Greater London Assembly which has no decision-making power at all but is just a talking shop that nobody listens into?
Incidentally, what happens when an Assembly member resigns or dies? Is there a by-election or are they replaced by the next person on the party list?
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Ports
Non-Aligned
Posts: 326
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Post by Ports on May 5, 2024 8:53:54 GMT
Incidentally, what happens when an Assembly member resigns or dies? Is there a by-election or are they replaced by the next person on the party list? For a list member vacancy it's the latter option - that's how Susan Hall became an Assembly Member, she was next on the list when Kemi Badenoch became an MP. For a constituency member it's a by-election though that has never actually happened.
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,130
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Post by maxque on May 5, 2024 13:07:50 GMT
Incidentally, what happens when an Assembly member resigns or dies? Is there a by-election or are they replaced by the next person on the party list? For a list member vacancy it's the latter option - that's how Susan Hall became an Assembly Member, she was next on the list when Kemi Badenoch became an MP. For a constituency member it's a by-election though that has never actually happened. Such replacements on the list happened seven times already: 2000: Jennette Arnold (Labour) became a list member to replace David Lammy, who won a by-election and became an MP. 2002: Michael Tuffley (LD) became a list member to replace Louise Bloom, who resigned for family reasons (she later appeared as a councillor in Eastleigh and currently in South Gloucestershire under the married name of Louise Harris). 2003: Diana Johnson (Labour) became a list member to replace Trevor Phillips, who was appointed head of the Commission for Racial Equality (now the "Equality and Human Rights" Commission) 2003: Noel Lynch (Green) became a list member to replace Victor Anderson, for reasons unclear, but he returned to his previous work for a Plaid Cymru MP (and is now Labour, working for Lloyd Russell-Moyle) 2005: Geoff Pope (LD) became a list member to replace Lynne Featherstone, elected as an MP (she lost in 2015, is now a Lord) 2015: Kemi Badenoch (Con) became a list member to replace Victoria Borwick, elected as an MP (she lost in 2017) 2017: Susan Hall (Con) became a list member to replace Kemi Badenock, elected as an MP.
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andrea
Non-Aligned
Posts: 7,280
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Post by andrea on May 5, 2024 13:12:48 GMT
For a list member vacancy it's the latter option - that's how Susan Hall became an Assembly Member, she was next on the list when Kemi Badenoch became an MP. For a constituency member it's a by-election though that has never actually happened. Such replacements on the list happened seven times already: 2000: Jennette Arnold (Labour) became a list member to replace David Lammy, who won a by-election and became an MP. 2002: Michael Tuffley (LD) became a list member to replace Louise Bloom, who resigned for family reasons (she later appeared as a councillor in Eastleigh and currently in South Gloucestershire under the married name of Louise Harris). 2003: Diana Johnson (Labour) became a list member to replace Trevor Phillips, who was appointed head of the Commission for Racial Equality (now the "Equality and Human Rights" Commission) 2003: Noel Lynch (Green) became a list member to replace Victor Anderson, for reasons unclear, but he returned to his previous work for a Plaid Cymru MP (and is now Labour, working for Lloyd Russell-Moyle) 2005: Geoff Pope (LD) became a list member to replace Lynne Featherstone, elected as an MP (she lost in 2015, is now a Lord) 2015: Kemi Badenoch (Con) became a list member to replace Victoria Borwick, elected as an MP (she lost in 2017) 2017: Susan Hall (Con) became a list member to replace Kemi Badenock, elected as an MP. Also in 2020 Fiona Twycross (Lab) resigned and she was replaced by Murad Qureshi (Lab).
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maxque
Non-Aligned
Posts: 9,130
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Post by maxque on May 5, 2024 13:16:21 GMT
Such replacements on the list happened seven times already: 2000: Jennette Arnold (Labour) became a list member to replace David Lammy, who won a by-election and became an MP. 2002: Michael Tuffley (LD) became a list member to replace Louise Bloom, who resigned for family reasons (she later appeared as a councillor in Eastleigh and currently in South Gloucestershire under the married name of Louise Harris). 2003: Diana Johnson (Labour) became a list member to replace Trevor Phillips, who was appointed head of the Commission for Racial Equality (now the "Equality and Human Rights" Commission) 2003: Noel Lynch (Green) became a list member to replace Victor Anderson, for reasons unclear, but he returned to his previous work for a Plaid Cymru MP (and is now Labour, working for Lloyd Russell-Moyle) 2005: Geoff Pope (LD) became a list member to replace Lynne Featherstone, elected as an MP (she lost in 2015, is now a Lord) 2015: Kemi Badenoch (Con) became a list member to replace Victoria Borwick, elected as an MP (she lost in 2017) 2017: Susan Hall (Con) became a list member to replace Kemi Badenock, elected as an MP. Also in 2020 Fiona Twycross (Lab) resigned and she was replaced by Murad Qureshi (Lab). Yes, she apparently resigned because she was unwilling to serve an additionnal year after her term was extended by a year due to COVID.
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Post by LDCaerdydd on May 5, 2024 14:11:29 GMT
To add to the above list Tom Copley resigned on 22 March 2020 to become Deputy Mayor (housing) and was replaced by Alison Moore. I’m sure there was another around the same date.
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