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Post by BossMan on Aug 9, 2023 17:17:02 GMT
Sitting member- Nick Rogers, Conservative
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Post by carolus on Aug 9, 2023 22:02:09 GMT
Hounslow, Kingston, and Richmond.
2021: Con 69,212 (31.9%) LD 61,222 (28.2%) Lab 56,945 (26.3%) Green 23,135 (10.7%) Reform UK 3,396 (1.6%) Let London Live 2,836 (1.3%)
For obvious reasons this is the most interesting constituency for the Lib Dems.
The Conservative candidate is Ron Muchiso (Hounslow, Chiswick Gunnersby), so the incumbent is stepping down.
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weld
Non-Aligned
Posts: 2,381
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Post by weld on Aug 10, 2023 5:12:20 GMT
Wickedly effective (unplanned) gerrymander for the Tories!
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Post by batman on Aug 10, 2023 6:57:07 GMT
this isn't a gerrymander, although I know that gerrymandering is possible, even if unintentionally on the part of the Boundary Commission. And it's especially not a gerrymander if they come third, which is distinctly possible.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 10, 2023 8:26:38 GMT
this isn't a gerrymander, although I know that gerrymandering is possible, even if unintentionally on the part of the Boundary Commission. And it's especially not a gerrymander if they come third, which is distinctly possible. I know, but the 2021 result was just too perfect for the Tories. They can lose Hounslow to Labour, and Kingston and Richmond to the Lib Dems, and still win! Get voters in your old Mortlake out for Labour and you may put them over the line batman! The Sheen might come off the Lib Dems here.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Aug 10, 2023 8:45:54 GMT
The Conservatives have undoubtedly been saved in multiple elections by the inability of the Liberal Democrats to get tactical votes from Labour in Hounslow, and the equal inability of Labour to persuade Kingston and Richmond Lib Dem supporters to tactically back them (as they do in Mayoral elections). If either of those happen the seat will fall.
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Post by aargauer on Aug 10, 2023 8:54:13 GMT
The Conservatives have undoubtedly been saved in multiple elections by the inability of the Liberal Democrats to get tactical votes from Labour in Hounslow, and the equal inability of Labour to persuade Kingston and Richmond Lib Dem supporters to tactically back them (as they do in Mayoral elections). If either of those happen the seat will fall. Maybe they will both happen and the seat will remain
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nyx
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Post by nyx on Aug 10, 2023 10:04:19 GMT
If it weren't for ULEZ I would predict a Labour win here given their national strength. I still think they'll do reasonably well and expect the Tories to come third- but I'll predict the Lib Dems just barely beating out Labour to win the seat.
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weld
Non-Aligned
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Post by weld on Aug 10, 2023 10:13:28 GMT
Tory hold. It's Outer London and Tory anti-ULEZ messaging will have more impact here, I'd argue.
Tories may make inroads with Hounslow BAME voters, who may be self-employed and drivers.
Also depends if the Greens stand. They have a bloc of Councillors in Richmond-upon-Thames.
IMO, second-place in Hounslow, Kingston and Richmond will be enough for the Tories here.
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Post by BucksDucks on Aug 10, 2023 10:24:38 GMT
Also depends if the Greens stand. They have a bloc of Councillors in Richmond and Kingston. While the Greens do have some councillors in Richmond, they have no councillors in Kingston.
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weld
Non-Aligned
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Post by weld on Aug 10, 2023 10:37:14 GMT
Also depends if the Greens stand. They have a bloc of Councillors in Richmond and Kingston. While the Greens do have some councillors in Richmond, they have no councillors in Kingston. You're of course right. Now corrected.
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 10, 2023 13:26:26 GMT
The Conservative candidate is Ron Mushiso.
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Post by timrollpickering on Aug 10, 2023 13:36:59 GMT
Wickedly effective (unplanned) gerrymander for the Tories! What alternative configuration is there? There's a clear reluctance to cross the Thames further east which leaves five and a half seats south of the Thames and no obvious alternative combination for Richmond. Swapping Hounslow with Sutton would require another cross river seat somewhere.
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Post by batman on Aug 10, 2023 17:00:04 GMT
I don't think ULEZ extension will play a major role in this particular constituency. In a very close finish, though, it could save it for the Tories - but I doubt it. Their majority is only small & the pendulum has swung a good long way since the last GLA election.
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Post by jakegb on Aug 10, 2023 17:33:43 GMT
Leaning Lib Dem The Tories crashed in Richmond and Kingston in 2022, almost to the point of extinction. Yes the Libs have very limited presence in Hounslow - but a few bar charts to the local residents may convince the residents to vote orange. And now that they have built up strength in neighbouring boroughs, they may give this one more serious consideration.
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 10, 2023 18:13:18 GMT
Leaning Lib Dem The Tories crashed in Richmond and Kingston in 2022, almost to the point of extinction. Yes the Libs have very limited presence in Hounslow - but a few bar charts to the local residents may convince the residents to vote orange. And now that they have built up strength in neighbouring boroughs, they may give this one more serious consideration. You'd think there would be a market for tactical anti-Conservatives voting Lib Dem in the Chiswick part of Hounslow, possibly among the new developments in Brentford as well. Less likely to be much of a Lib Dem vote in Feltham & Heston though so the question is can they make up the deficit there in Richmond and Kingston?
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,371
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Post by Tony Otim on Aug 10, 2023 18:15:30 GMT
There is a possibility that what has saved the Tories so far here actually dooms them to a poor third this time as they continue shedding votes to Labour in Hounslow and the Lib Dems elsewhere, allowing both to pass them comfortably...
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 10, 2023 18:20:28 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me if Feltham & Heston is the Parliamentary seat with the highest Conservative vote in this area at this election and the next General Election which would have sounded crazy just ten years ago
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Post by jakegb on Aug 10, 2023 19:00:23 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me if Feltham & Heston is the Parliamentary seat with the highest Conservative vote in this area at this election and the next General Election which would have sounded crazy just ten years ago Seconded - I can envision the Tories hovering around 30% in Richmond Park. Around half what Goldsmith got in 2015. Since 2010, much has been written about the ethnic minority vote in the media - nationwide, as well as in London - and the harm this poses to the Tories. But looking forward, the predominantly white, liberal middle classes - that David Cameron was largely successfully in wooing - may pose the far bigger threat come the next election.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 10, 2023 20:05:26 GMT
When I was at the count for the first GLA election for Croydon & Sutton in 2000, I was having a conversation with the Lib Dem candidate (Anne Gallop) and I showed her a hand-drawn map of how the 14 GLA constituencies voted in the 1997 general election. It showed Conservative as the largest single party in the SW constituency. She said it was wrong because it should be yellow for Lib Dem. I explained to her that a Lab-Con area (Hounslow) combined with a LD-Con area (Richmond and Kingston) produced a combined result where Conservative is the largest single party, even though it didn’t win any of the 5 parliamentary constituencies in 1997. She just didn’t understand me and said I was wrong, even though I explained it about three times.
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