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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 10, 2023 20:44:06 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me if Feltham & Heston is the Parliamentary seat with the highest Conservative vote in this area at this election and the next General Election which would have sounded crazy just ten years ago Seconded - I can envision the Tories hovering around 30% in Richmond Park. Around half what Goldsmith got in 2015. Since 2010, much has been written about the ethnic minority vote in the media - nationwide, as well as in London - and the harm this poses to the Tories. But looking forward, the predominantly white, liberal middle classes - that David Cameron was largely successfully in wooing - may pose the far bigger threat come the next election. Agreed on that last point and 100% self-inflicted
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Post by jakegb on Aug 10, 2023 21:04:10 GMT
When I was at the count for the first GLA election for Croydon & Sutton in 2000, I eas having a conversation with the Lib Dem candidate (Anne Gallop) and I showed her a hand-drawn map of how the 14 GLA constituencies voted in the 1997 general election. It showed Conservative as the largest single party in the SW constituency. She said it was wrong because it should be yellow for Lib Dem. I explained to her that a Lab-Con area (Hounslow) combined with a LD-Con area (Richmond and Kingston) produced a combined result where Conservative is the largest single party, even though it didn’t win any of the 5 parliamentary constituencies in 1997. She just didn’t understand me and said I was wrong, even though I explained it about three times. I completely understand your logic. Despite how dire the 1997 election was for the Tories, the results in Twickenham/Richmond Park/Kingston + Surbiton - though disappointing - were close (or very close in the latter). A lot closer than 2019: the landslide victory for the Tories. And so it is much easier to see how the Tories can squeeze through the middle in 2000.
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Post by johnloony on Aug 10, 2023 22:00:00 GMT
When I was at the count for the first GLA election for Croydon & Sutton in 2000, I was having a conversation with the Lib Dem candidate (Anne Gallop) and I showed her a hand-drawn map of how the 14 GLA constituencies voted in the 1997 general election. It showed Conservative as the largest single party in the SW constituency. She said it was wrong because it should be yellow for Lib Dem. I explained to her that a Lab-Con area (Hounslow) combined with a LD-Con area (Richmond and Kingston) produced a combined result where Conservative is the largest single party, even though it didn’t win any of the 5 parliamentary constituencies in 1997. She just didn’t understand me and said I was wrong, even though I explained it about three times. At the same count, I mentioned to her that I had voted for Frank Dobson (Labour) to be Mayor, and that I put my second preference for Steve Norris (Conservative). I was explaining that it was because I didn’t like Ken Livingstone, and other reasons. She replied “So you did a spoilt vote then?”. I got the impression that she was a bit thick because she kept on missing the point of anything I said.
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Post by evergreenadam on Aug 11, 2023 7:30:15 GMT
Wickedly effective (unplanned) gerrymander for the Tories! What alternative configuration is there? There's a clear reluctance to cross the Thames further east which leaves five and a half seats south of the Thames and no obvious alternative combination for Richmond. Swapping Hounslow with Sutton would require another cross river seat somewhere. The seat works very well in terms of local identities and community links, the election result is a separate matter.
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Post by londonseal80 on Aug 17, 2023 19:38:02 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me if Feltham & Heston is the Parliamentary seat with the highest Conservative vote in this area at this election and the next General Election which would have sounded crazy just ten years ago Not that crazy, I actually think (when in government) Labour might start to fall away a bit in Hounslow in the next couple of local elections.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 18, 2023 5:29:54 GMT
Labour recently lost Tower Hamlets, Harrow, Croydon and Slough, and fell back in Leicester.
Some Feltham wards may vote to the right of Chiswick in next May's Mayoral and GLA elections.
Susan Hall may resonate more with blue-collar Feltham than with middle-class voters in Chiswick.
I don't see the Lib Dem pleas for voters to vote tactically here working that well in Feltham & Heston.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Aug 18, 2023 9:41:20 GMT
Croydon and Slough weren't really about ethnic or demographic factors though.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 18, 2023 10:22:57 GMT
Croydon and Slough weren't really about ethnic or demographic factors though. Fair point, but Leicester and Tower Hamlets were more so.
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 18, 2023 10:30:23 GMT
Croydon and Slough weren't really about ethnic or demographic factors though. I think the financial issues in Slough may have masked some demographic issues at play
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 18, 2023 10:31:47 GMT
Croydon and Slough weren't really about ethnic or demographic factors though. Fair point, but Leicester and Tower Hamlets were more so. In fairness, I think Tower Hamlets is sui generis and is a very different demographic (Bangladeshi Muslims) than Slough, Harrow and Leicester (mostly Hindus and Sikhs).
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Post by batman on Aug 18, 2023 11:53:58 GMT
Leicester has a large Muslim population, mostly in Jon Ashworth's constituency. Leicester East is much more Hindu.
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Post by pepperminttea on Aug 18, 2023 21:06:00 GMT
It wouldn't surprise me if Feltham & Heston is the Parliamentary seat with the highest Conservative vote in this area at this election and the next General Election which would have sounded crazy just ten years ago Seconded - I can envision the Tories hovering around 30% in Richmond Park. Around half what Goldsmith got in 2015. Since 2010, much has been written about the ethnic minority vote in the media - nationwide, as well as in London - and the harm this poses to the Tories. But looking forward, the predominantly white, liberal middle classes - that David Cameron was largely successfully in wooing - may pose the far bigger threat come the next election. They might well be able to scrape a lead in Barnes ward as it has more 'across the river' demographics as well as winning Coombe Hill. The Lib Dems will curb stomp them in the rest of the constituency though. Funnily enough Mortlake (despite its distant Labour history) will probably be their next best ward.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 19, 2023 4:10:25 GMT
The Tories did better in many Feltham & Heston wards than in much of Richmond in 2022., holding Labour below 50% in a few. Richmond-upon-Thames Tories are critically endangered with one Cllr left in Hampton North, and he’s been in office since before the London Borough of Richmond upon Thames was set up. That said, any Tory hold here (amid split opposition) comes from them over-performing in Feltham & Heston and pulling ahead in wards where there were at least somewhat competitive in 2022. Will they do that? ULEZ might aid them, but as Davıd Boothroyd et al will remind you, voters haven’t felt the (potentially underwhelming) impacts of the August 29 expansion yet. Sunak could have some appeal to the large minority vote in Hounslow. However, a lot of this is Muslim who I don’t see warming up to Rishi in the same way as say, Gujarati or Tamil voters might. This area doesn’t have a lot of the Ugandan Asian demographic that gifted the Tories Harrow council last year, and Leicester E it ain’t. It’ll depend on turnout. For those self-employed tradespeople etc who are hit by ULEZ, how many will sit out the election or vote against Khan who would otherwise show up for Labour or the Lib Dems? I think the Lib Dem path is quite simple: run up the score in Kingston and Richmond while doing very well in Chiswick. Still, if the Tories are ahead in Barnes they may hold their own in Chiswick. That said, Labour did crack the Chiswick ‘blue wall’ last year.
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Post by batman on Aug 19, 2023 8:20:05 GMT
You refer to Cllr Geoffrey Samuel the Tory councillor for Hampton North at the beginning. You're partly correct. Geoffrey was on the Twickenham Borough Council before the existing London Boroughs were formed, but he was a Labour councillor then. He continued as a Labour councillor (and I think at one point Alderman too) on the present authority in two different stints (the Tories wiped Labour out in 1968), but did not stand for re-election in 1978. He subsequently joined the SDP, but did not stand as a candidate for them. In 1997 he won a by-election in what was then Hampton Hill ward for the Tories and has sat on the council continuously since then. I believe he is 92. We are acquainted though I haven't seen him in some years. He is unfailingly friendly & polite to me when we do meet.
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Post by batman on Aug 19, 2023 8:24:22 GMT
And I very much doubt that the Tories can outpoll the Lib Dems in Barnes in current circumstances - in fact they would struggle in any R-u-T ward. Their best chance might be the wards with a higher Labour profile e.g. Heathfield where they could just about prevail in a 3-way split.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 19, 2023 11:43:59 GMT
I agree. I think Barnes and Chiswick will go Lib Dem for GLA. I'll defer to your superior knowledge of Mortlake, batman . Do you think Susan Hall has an appeal to voters there? Do you think you'll back the Lib Dems for the GLA?
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Post by heslingtonian on Aug 19, 2023 13:11:05 GMT
Regarding Susan Hall's appeal (or lack of) I suspect her appeal will be strongest in already Conservative voting parts of Outer London- Havering, Bexley, Hillingdon, Harrow and parts of Bromley. Not at all comvinced she'll go down well in the affluent West London intelligentsia areas which still have a reasonable amount of Conservative voters such as Kensington, Richmond, Wimbledon and Hampstead.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 19, 2023 13:22:40 GMT
Regarding Susan Hall's appeal (or lack of) I suspect her appeal will be strongest in already Conservative voting parts of Outer London- Havering, Bexley, Hillingdon, Harrow and parts of Bromley. Not at all comvinced she'll go down well in the affluent West London intelligentsia areas which still have a reasonable amount of Conservative voters such as Kensington, Richmond, Wimbledon and Hampstead. Yes, I think she wins Bexley, Bromley, Croydon, Harrow, Havering, Hillingdon, RBKC and Sutton. I don't think she'll win Barking & Dagenham tbh. Looking at the 2022 locals, she has a shot at carrying Barnet, Enfield, Wandsworth and Westminster. I think Khan will win Wandsworth though. I think Hounslow may be the London bellwether, and Khan almost certainly wins there, despite some underwhelming Labour holds last year. Kingston and Richmond are weird, since they voted for Ken Livingstone back in the day and Khan did well across both in the 2021 election.
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Post by bjornhattan on Aug 19, 2023 14:16:53 GMT
Regarding Susan Hall's appeal (or lack of) I suspect her appeal will be strongest in already Conservative voting parts of Outer London- Havering, Bexley, Hillingdon, Harrow and parts of Bromley. Not at all comvinced she'll go down well in the affluent West London intelligentsia areas which still have a reasonable amount of Conservative voters such as Kensington, Richmond, Wimbledon and Hampstead. Yes, I think she wins Bexley, Bromley, Croydon, Harrow, Havering, Hillingdon, RBKC and Sutton. I don't think she'll win Barking & Dagenham tbh. Looking at the 2022 locals, she has a shot at carrying Barnet, Enfield, Wandsworth and Westminster. I think Khan will win Wandsworth though. I think Hounslow may be the London bellwether, and Khan almost certainly wins there, despite some underwhelming Labour holds last year. Kingston and Richmond are weird, since they voted for Ken Livingstone back in the day and Khan did well across both in the 2021 election. At least in 2021, Khan did astonishingly well in Wandsworth - even winning the likes of Thamesfield. While Wandsworth is (largely) an affluent borough and somewhere you'd expect to prefer an established figure like Khan to more of a wildcard like Bailey, the results there did seem quite exceptional. I do wonder if some of it was a personal vote, given that Khan was not only born and raised in the borough but also represented part of it as their MP - in which case Susan Hall will have almost no chance at carrying it.
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weld
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Post by weld on Aug 19, 2023 14:29:27 GMT
Yes, I think she wins Bexley, Bromley, Croydon, Harrow, Havering, Hillingdon, RBKC and Sutton. I don't think she'll win Barking & Dagenham tbh. Looking at the 2022 locals, she has a shot at carrying Barnet, Enfield, Wandsworth and Westminster. I think Khan will win Wandsworth though. At least in 2021, Khan did astonishingly well in Wandsworth - even winning the likes of Thamesfield. While Wandsworth is (largely) an affluent borough and somewhere you'd expect to prefer an established figure like Khan to more of a wildcard like Bailey, the results there did seem quite exceptional. I do wonder if some of it was a personal vote, given that Khan was not only born and raised in the borough but also represented part of it as their MP - in which case Susan Hall will have almost no chance at carrying it.By that logic, I wonder if Susan Hall does very well in Harrow - she led the council once, IIR.
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