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Post by batman on Apr 10, 2024 15:56:47 GMT
I would be amazed if Reform got 7% in Scotland.
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
Posts: 11,306
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Post by Tony Otim on Apr 10, 2024 16:00:49 GMT
I would be amazed if Reform got 7% in Scotland. Likewise
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Post by uthacalthing on Apr 10, 2024 17:12:18 GMT
I suspect that when nominations close, they will have candidates in so few seats that 7% will no longer be mathematically possible
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Post by grumpyguy on Apr 10, 2024 20:53:23 GMT
Yougov have a serious problem with over-estimating Reform's support in Scotland. It's one reason why they consistently have a higher RUK figure than nay other pollster. Some of the individual Scottish constituency figures on their MRP poll were breath-taking. Dumfries and Galloway 10%? Outpolling the Tories in Glasgow North? Afleitch upthread is probably right when he says Yougov's allocation of ex-2019Tories is wrong for Scotland. SNP Brexit supporters (there were some, but not many) may have voted Tory in 2019 and will have gone back to SNP now. Some will find they can't vote RUK because there's no candidate and some may vote Labour to defeat a Tory. Reallocating 5 out of RUK's 7 could produce a poll of Lab 34, Nat 33, Con 16 which is close to other pollsters. If the high Green figure is also at the expense of the Nats, then they and Lab are level pegging, which again is in line with other polls.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Apr 15, 2024 13:14:01 GMT
Norstat 9-12 April Westminster VI: LAB 32% SNP 32% CON 16% LIB 9%
Holyrood Constituency VI: SNP 35% LAB 30% CON 17% LIB 10%
Holyrood List VI: SNP 28% LAB 25% CON 19% LIB 10% GRN 9% OTH 8%
Independence: NO 51% YES 44% DK 5%
Net approval ratings: Anas Sarwar -17 Keir Starmer -25 Humza Yousaf -32 Rishi Sunak -35 Douglas Ross -38
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Post by stb12 on Apr 15, 2024 13:23:55 GMT
Decent result for No there
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Apr 15, 2024 17:29:05 GMT
Decent result for No there Highest share for No with Norstat/Panelbase since 2018.
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Post by uthacalthing on Apr 15, 2024 19:28:59 GMT
Net approval ratings:Anas Sarwar -17 Keir Starmer -25 Humza Yousaf -32 Rishi Sunak -35 Douglas Ross -38 I would swap Starmer and Sarwar but roughly where they ought to be. All of them deep in negative territory, most of them ought to emigrate or change their names. Or both.
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Sandy
Forum Regular
Posts: 2,757
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Post by Sandy on Apr 16, 2024 0:14:02 GMT
Pretty damning that Yousaf is only 3 points ahead of an evilll Torrrrrieeee Prime Minister.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 29, 2024 17:45:16 GMT
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 34% (+1) SNP: 33% (+2) CON: 14% (=) LDM: 8% (+1) RFM: 5% (-2) GRN: 4% (-1)
Via @yougov, 26-29 Apr. Changes w/ 25 Mar - 2 Apr.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Apr 29, 2024 18:09:37 GMT
On Independence:
NO 54% YES 46%
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Post by batman on Apr 29, 2024 21:00:31 GMT
I did think that Reform were too high in their previous poll, this looks more likely. Mind you, the SNP actually being up is pretty counter-intuitive given recent news. It would be interesting to see if polls in the next few days, if there are any, see a reversal of this.
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