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Post by graham on Nov 1, 2023 19:08:10 GMT
2017 is clearly the better guide for Scotland based on current polling than 2019. I'd be shocked to see the Conservatives lose Stirling & Strathallan to the SNP but win Argyll, Bute & Lochaber South I would expect the Tories to be quite a bit weaker than 2017 - and doing well to poll 20% rather than the 28.5% they then managed. Labour looks like being a lot stronger on circa 35% compared with 27% in 2017.
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nodealbrexiteer
Forum Regular
non aligned favour no deal brexit!
Posts: 4,075
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Post by nodealbrexiteer on Nov 1, 2023 19:20:32 GMT
Labour should certainly be targetting every seat in Scotland that it won in 2010 and 2005. Well done on 600 posts
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Nov 1, 2023 19:44:39 GMT
2017 is clearly the better guide for Scotland based on current polling than 2019. I'd be shocked to see the Conservatives lose Stirling & Strathallan to the SNP but win Argyll, Bute & Lochaber South I would expect the Tories to be quite a bit weaker than 2017 - and doing well to poll 20% rather than the 28.5% they then managed. Labour looks like being a lot stronger on circa 35% compared with 27% in 2017. The narrative is already shifting towards Labour being 'back in Scotland' which could push the Tories out of contention in East Renfrewshire, Ayrshire and Aberdeen for Labour. But if (big if) the Redfield & Wilton poll transpired in an election there is no doubt the Tories would regain the seats they held in 2017 which is confirmed by how they performed in those respective constituencies in the 2021 Scottish election and 2022 local election where they took 21-22% of the vote in Scotland as a whole. Argyll & Bute is one of the top two safest SNP seats in Scotland (the other being Carnoustie & Arbroath).
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Post by johnloony on Nov 1, 2023 19:56:09 GMT
Quite big changes, on top of quite big changes last month too. The last 3 months have been Lab 27-32-38 SNP 38-33-32 Con 16-20-16 My desire for the SNP to lose as many seats as possible is more intense than my desire for the Conservative Party to gain as many seats as possible.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Nov 1, 2023 19:58:00 GMT
Quite big changes, on top of quite big changes last month too. The last 3 months have been Lab 27-32-38 SNP 38-33-32 Con 16-20-16 My desire for the SNP to lose as many seats as possible is more intense than my desire for the Conservative Party to gain as many seats as possible. Based on the Redfield & Wilton poll accounting for last year's local elections, the SNP would be down to 9 seats, and the Conservatives would surpass them on 12 seats in Scotland. It would be truly spectacular to see the SNP coming THIRD behind the Tories. Or even better, FOURTH behind the Lib Dems to celebrate ten years since Scotland's verdict to reject independence.
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Post by rcronald on Nov 1, 2023 19:59:35 GMT
For Labour’s (and Scotland’s) sake, I hope they don't win too many seats and become arrogant again like they were before 2015.
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Post by michaelarden on Nov 1, 2023 20:08:41 GMT
Lot of hubris on this thread particularly from the blue team. In an election where sticking it to the Tories is a major theme, the political dynamic won't see many (if any) Tory gains anywhere. The other issue that won't go away is where do the near 50% of the electorate who still want independence go? Until the unionists can start converting those wanting indy to love (or at least accept) the union then support gained from the SNP will inevitably be very brittle.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Nov 1, 2023 20:14:28 GMT
Lot of hubris on this thread particularly from the blue team. In an election where sticking it to the Tories is a major theme, the political dynamic won't see many (if any) Tory gains anywhere. The other issue that won't go away is where do the near 50% of the electorate who still want independence go? Until the unionists can start converting those wanting indy to love (or at least accept) the union then support gained from the SNP will inevitably be very brittle. How about the 77 or so percent of the electorate who don't rank independence as a priority. It's become increasingly clear that many SNP voters are turning towards Labour due a lack of confidence in the SNP government in Scotland.
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Post by graham on Nov 1, 2023 20:30:56 GMT
I can also see Labour being competitive again in Stiring - a seat it held 1997 - 2015. In 2015 the party did poll 25.5% there - slightly higher than the 24.3% across Scotland. If Labour manages 35% in Scotland next year, then 36% might be possible in Stirling.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Nov 2, 2023 1:10:22 GMT
Labour should certainly be targetting every seat in Scotland that it won in 2010 and 2005. Dumfries & Galloway, Stirling & Strathallan and Perth & Kinross-shire are not viable targets for Labour on current polling figures, but the remaining seats which they held in 2005 and 2010 would be viable targets on this basis, in addition to Na h-Eileanan an Iar.
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Post by graham on Nov 2, 2023 8:32:11 GMT
Labour should certainly be targetting every seat in Scotland that it won in 2010 and 2005. Dumfries & Galloway, Stirling & Strathallan and Perth & Kinross-shire are not viable targets for Labour on current polling figures, but the remaining seats which they held in 2005 and 2010 would be viable targets on this basis, in addition to Na h-Eileanan an Iar. I am unclear as to how the Stirling seat is affected by boundary changes, but on existing boundaries it should be a possibility for Labour if 2017 and 2015 are taken as indicators of the underlying Labour vote there. The party's vote share will have been doubly depressed in 2019 by tactical voting for both SNP and the Tories. Both would now unwind to Labour's advantage to restore its vote share to well over 30%. More generally, I would expect Labour's recovery in very rural seats - Banff & Buchan - Angus - Aberdeenshire - Gordon etc - to be pretty muted with above average increases in its vote elsewhere.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Nov 2, 2023 9:43:21 GMT
Dumfries & Galloway, Stirling & Strathallan and Perth & Kinross-shire are not viable targets for Labour on current polling figures, but the remaining seats which they held in 2005 and 2010 would be viable targets on this basis, in addition to Na h-Eileanan an Iar. I am unclear as to how the Stirling seat is affected by boundary changes, but on existing boundaries it should be a possibility for Labour if 2017 and 2015 are taken as indicators of the underlying Labour vote there. The party's vote share will have been doubly depressed in 2019 by tactical voting for both SNP and the Tories. Both would now unwind to Labour's advantage to restore its vote share to well over 30%. More generally, I would expect Labour's recovery in very rural seats - Banff & Buchan - Angus - Aberdeenshire - Gordon etc - to be pretty muted with above average increases in its vote elsewhere.
Fair point.
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Post by Clark on Nov 2, 2023 10:22:22 GMT
Were these vote shares to hold up in a GE, I actually could see Labour winning circa 40 seats in Scotland. This would mean coming from third or fourth place to win some seats. Both Aberdeen seats could now be winnable. East Dunbartonshire might be a LD/Lab contest. East Renfewshire would come back into play. Aberdeen South could end up an interesting three-way marginal. Labour got just 8% at the last election, but there was a Remainer bounce in the seat for the SNP and Labour recovered back to 15-20% at the 2021 Holyrood election in two of the Aberdeen seats. I don’t see the Tories collapsing here as they may do in other seats as there is a lot of unease locally about the SNP’s oil and gas policy. I’ve got family members who are pro-independence and would never have considered voting Tory saying they’re the only party ‘standing up for the North East’. Yes I agree - I expect the Tory vote to hold up well in the North East of Scotland - wouldn't be surprised to see them gain Aberdeen South even though boundary changes are against them. I know a few people who work in Oil and Gas who have never voted Tory before saying they will at the next election.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Nov 2, 2023 10:33:01 GMT
Aberdeen South could end up an interesting three-way marginal. Labour got just 8% at the last election, but there was a Remainer bounce in the seat for the SNP and Labour recovered back to 15-20% at the 2021 Holyrood election in two of the Aberdeen seats. I don’t see the Tories collapsing here as they may do in other seats as there is a lot of unease locally about the SNP’s oil and gas policy. I’ve got family members who are pro-independence and would never have considered voting Tory saying they’re the only party ‘standing up for the North East’. Yes I agree - I expect the Tory vote to hold up well in the North East of Scotland - wouldn't be surprised to see them gain Aberdeen South even though boundary changes are against them. I know a few people who work in Oil and Gas who have never voted Tory before saying they will at the next election. Anecdotally, I have heard the same.
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Post by greyfriar on Nov 11, 2023 19:15:24 GMT
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Nov 11, 2023 19:53:05 GMT
and here I thought Labour were going to have a landslide in the Highlands...
No poll behind that paywall I assume?
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Post by batman on Nov 11, 2023 20:17:27 GMT
I don't think we are going to be having a landslide in the Highlands. We didn't manage that even in 1997. I know you're kidding though.
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,753
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Post by The Bishop on Nov 12, 2023 11:07:37 GMT
Isn't it about time we had some proper Scottish polling - I expected a feast of surveys post-Rutherglen, not a famine.
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Post by andrewp on Nov 29, 2023 18:45:16 GMT
Here is a Labour lead from Redfield and Wilton
Scotland Westminster VI (26-27 November):
Labour 36% (+4) SNP 34% (+2) Conservative 17% (-6) Lib Dem 6% (-2) Reform 3% (+1) Green 2% (–) Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 29-30 October
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,307
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Post by CatholicLeft on Nov 29, 2023 19:19:04 GMT
Here is a Labour lead from Redfield and Wilton Scotland Westminster VI (26-27 November): Labour 36% (+4) SNP 34% (+2) Conservative 17% (-6) Lib Dem 6% (-2) Reform 3% (+1) Green 2% (–) Other 0% (-1) Changes +/- 29-30 October The first Labour lead they have shown: linkx.com/GerardBarry57/status/1729942076727390714?s=20
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