Sandy
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Post by Sandy on Dec 1, 2023 15:36:39 GMT
Seems to be an IPSOS poll dropped which looks a lot better for the SNP than anything lately which has gone unnoticed in here. Outlier?
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Post by afleitch on Dec 1, 2023 16:42:55 GMT
Seems to be an IPSOS poll dropped which looks a lot better for the SNP than anything lately which has gone unnoticed in here. Outlier? IPSOS are a reliable and accurate pollster. They have shown a reduced SNP lead from their previous poll. While it's methodology is different, it's not out of line with trends. Polling in Scotland remains sparse, bar the monthly R&W which has it's detractors (usually a two day sample, when other online pollsters tend to use a longer window in Scottish polling) They also appear to have dropped their Holyrood polling this month. But they do poll regularly. YouGov had an SNP rebound, followed by a near tie while out in the field at the time of the by-election. The Labour +6 by YouGov was for SCOOP using different methodology (which last had Labour +3 in June) and cannot be compared to the previous standard YouGov. YouGov look like they might be 'overdue' a regular poll and other outfits seem to be polling only occasionally. Over the last two months we have Tory shares of 15-23%, Labour shares of 30-36% and SNP shares of 32-40%. This is entirely within expected variance and not too dissimilar from rUK polls. Which is why you get 100-250 majorities etc. But it has much more impact on Scotland in terms of forecasting who is in the lead in terms of votes and seats, when that isn't currently in doubt across rUK.
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Sandy
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Post by Sandy on Dec 1, 2023 17:31:18 GMT
Seems to be an IPSOS poll dropped which looks a lot better for the SNP than anything lately which has gone unnoticed in here. Outlier? IPSOS are a reliable and accurate pollster. They have shown a reduced SNP lead from their previous poll. While it's methodology is different, it's not out of line with trends. Polling in Scotland remains sparse, bar the monthly R&W which has it's detractors (usually a two day sample, when other online pollsters tend to use a longer window in Scottish polling) They also appear to have dropped their Holyrood polling this month. But they do poll regularly. YouGov had an SNP rebound, followed by a near tie while out in the field at the time of the by-election. The Labour +6 by YouGov was for SCOOP using different methodology (which last had Labour +3 in June) and cannot be compared to the previous standard YouGov. YouGov look like they might be 'overdue' a regular poll and other outfits seem to be polling only occasionally. Over the last two months we have Tory shares of 15-23%, Labour shares of 30-36% and SNP shares of 32-40%. This is entirely within expected variance and not too dissimilar from rUK polls. Which is why you get 100-250 majorities etc. But it has much more impact on Scotland in terms of forecasting who is in the lead in terms of votes and seats, when that isn't currently in doubt across rUK. Disappointingly predictable response, but you’ve dropped the ball if you done mind me saying so.
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Post by afleitch on Dec 1, 2023 18:30:07 GMT
It's a non-biased response to Scottish polling. What am I supposed to be validating?
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Sandy
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Post by Sandy on Dec 1, 2023 22:40:59 GMT
It's a non-biased response to Scottish polling. What am I supposed to be validating? If you need to ask, you will never have the self awareness to know
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Post by afleitch on Dec 2, 2023 0:01:19 GMT
It's a non-biased response to Scottish polling. What am I supposed to be validating? If you need to ask, you will never have the self awareness to know If you can't answer, then you don't have a reason
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Post by hullenedge on Dec 31, 2023 9:03:27 GMT
Sunday Times, 31st December, Focaldata poll (November 22nd -29th, 724 polled):-
Lab 37% SNP 31% Con 16%
Labour forecast to win 35 seats to the SNP's 15 (old boundaries).
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Post by batman on Dec 31, 2023 9:11:34 GMT
that's taken a very long time to appear especially as the sample size is not large
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Dec 31, 2023 10:11:45 GMT
Even so, its a bit different from the Ipsos poll that got Nats so excited isn't it.
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Post by batman on Dec 31, 2023 10:43:28 GMT
Ipsos are pretty much out on their own in terms of Scottish polling
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Dec 31, 2023 11:23:02 GMT
Sunday Times, 31st December, Focaldata poll (November 22nd -29th, 724 polled):- Lab 37% SNP 31% Con 16% Labour forecast to win 35 seats to the SNP's 15 (old boundaries). This is a sub-sample taken from an MRP poll. The data tables are atrocious and voting intention by constituency has not been published. I don't know where they got their forecast of Labour winning 35 seats and the SNP winning 15 but the MRP was conducted on new parliamentary boundaries for Best for Britain, so it is unlikely to be directly from that. It's also unclear whether this sub-sample has been weighted/was part of MRP or if it is just a sub-sample of a GB-wide poll, in which case it is not particularly useful.
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Post by batman on Dec 31, 2023 12:22:31 GMT
thanks for the health warning - although it is not wildly out of line with some other polls appearing previously.
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 12, 2024 17:26:12 GMT
From Redfield and Wilton
Scotland Westminster VI (9-11 January):
SNP 35% (+1) Labour 35% (-1) Conservative 17% (–) Liberal Democrat 9% (+3) Green 2% (–) Reform UK 2% (-1) Other 1% (+1)
Changes +/- 26-27 November
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andrewp
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Post by andrewp on Jan 27, 2024 19:41:03 GMT
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
LAB: 36% (+3) SNP: 33% (-4) CON: 16% (-2) LDM: 7% (=) RFM: 4% (New)
Via @norstatgroup, 22-25 Jan. Changes w/ 12-15 Jun 2023.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jan 27, 2024 20:36:49 GMT
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (+3) SNP: 33% (-4) CON: 16% (-2) LDM: 7% (=) RFM: 4% (New) Via @norstatgroup, 22-25 Jan. Changes w/ 12-15 Jun 2023. Independence:
No: 48% Yes: 47% DK: 4%
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timmullen1
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Post by timmullen1 on Jan 27, 2024 21:20:58 GMT
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention: LAB: 36% (+3) SNP: 33% (-4) CON: 16% (-2) LDM: 7% (=) RFM: 4% (New) Via @norstatgroup, 22-25 Jan. Changes w/ 12-15 Jun 2023. Apologies if this has been mentioned, I can’t see it on a first look, but Norstat Group have bought and subsumed Panelbase.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Jan 27, 2024 22:22:32 GMT
Norstat (formerly Panelbase) 22 - 25 Jan (changes vs 2 -5 Oct) Scottish Parliament VI:List:SNP ~ 30% (+1) Lab ~ 29% (-1) Con ~ 19% (+1) Grn ~ 9% (-3) LD ~ 7% (-1) Constituency:SNP ~ 36% (+1) Lab ~ 31% (-1) Con ~ 16% (nc) LD ~ 7% (nc) Grn ~ 5% (-2)
Result SNP 48 (-16) LAB 46 (+24) CON 24 (-7) LIB 8 (+4) GRN 3 (-5)
Labour minority administration
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Tony Otim
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Post by Tony Otim on Jan 28, 2024 9:39:07 GMT
There is apparently a Find Out Now poll with
Yes 52 No 48
Don't know if there are other questions included.
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Post by michaelarden on Jan 28, 2024 15:44:59 GMT
There is apparently a Find Out Now poll with Yes 52 No 48 Don't know if there are other questions included. There's around a third of indy supporters voting for unionist parties (principally Labour). If Labour poll around 35% as polls currently suggest - fully 15% points will be indy supporters - that's going to be an interesting dynamic for both the Labour Westminster government and the Scottish party. Maintaining an ultra unionist position (basically the same as the Scottish Tories) will surely not be possible if they want to keep this chunk on board for more than one election? You can also easily see how the SNP may be able to attract a significant chunk back to them in the upcoming GE as it becomes clearer that Labour will win without Scotland.
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CatholicLeft
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 28, 2024 18:53:18 GMT
There is apparently a Find Out Now poll with Yes 52 No 48 Don't know if there are other questions included. There's around a third of indy supporters voting for unionist parties (principally Labour). If Labour poll around 35% as polls currently suggest - fully 15% points will be indy supporters - that's going to be an interesting dynamic for both the Labour Westminster government and the Scottish party. Maintaining an ultra unionist position (basically the same as the Scottish Tories) will surely not be possible if they want to keep this chunk on board for more than one election? You can also easily see how the SNP may be able to attract a significant chunk back to them in the upcoming GE as it becomes clearer that Labour will win without Scotland. I am not convinced by this argument, which is being heavily pushed by Humza Yousaf, that Labour doesn't need Scotland, nor convinced it is a winning argument. The truth is, people like to be on the winning side. In Scotland, for many years, that side has been the SNP, but this seems to no longer be true. The Yousaf/SNP argument sounds like that of a loser. When demographic voting shifts occur, they are often quite dramatic, and I don’t see Scotland being too far off the rest of the UK if this happens.
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