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Post by ntyuk1707 on Feb 7, 2024 20:52:44 GMT
From Redfield Wilton Scotland Westminster VI (3-4 February): Labour 34% (-1) SNP 33% (-2) Conservative 18% (+1) Lib Dem 8% (-1) Reform UK 4% (+2) Green 2% (–) Alba 1% (NEW) Other 0% (-1) Changes +/- 9-11 January Tories would be in with a chance of gaining Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock on these figures. Redfield & Wilton appear to be most generous to the Conservatives in Scotland than other pollsters though.
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Post by stb12 on Feb 7, 2024 21:05:45 GMT
From Redfield Wilton Scotland Westminster VI (3-4 February): Labour 34% (-1) SNP 33% (-2) Conservative 18% (+1) Lib Dem 8% (-1) Reform UK 4% (+2) Green 2% (–) Alba 1% (NEW) Other 0% (-1) Changes +/- 9-11 January Redfield Wilton Scotland Independence Referendum Voting Intention (3-4 February): No 47% (–) Yes 43% (-3) Don't Know 10% (+3) Changes +/- 9-11 January
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Post by batman on Feb 7, 2024 21:38:06 GMT
well they can't both be right can they. Sort yourself oot laddies.
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Post by michaelarden on Feb 7, 2024 23:13:21 GMT
well they can't both be right can they. Sort yourself oot laddies. I think they're both within the margins of error.
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Post by batman on Feb 7, 2024 23:30:33 GMT
Well yes they are but Ipsos MORI consistently produce Scottish polls which have a higher figure than others do both for Yes in a referendum and for the SNP in parliamentary elections. That's not to say they're wrong of course, they could be right & all the others wrong.
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Post by jimboo2017 on Feb 8, 2024 13:42:20 GMT
Well yes they are but Ipsos MORI consistently produce Scottish polls which have a higher figure than others do both for Yes in a referendum and for the SNP in parliamentary elections. That's not to say they're wrong of course, they could be right & all the others wrong. Ipsos MORI have contract with Scot Gov worth 5 million
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,552
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 8, 2024 14:01:00 GMT
Well yes they are but Ipsos MORI consistently produce Scottish polls which have a higher figure than others do both for Yes in a referendum and for the SNP in parliamentary elections. That's not to say they're wrong of course, they could be right & all the others wrong. These two polls differ significantly, but where they agree is Labour improving their position slightly.
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Post by yellowfox on Feb 8, 2024 22:09:33 GMT
Redfield Wilton do seem to be a bit bouncy from month to month, but I'd think they'll be closer to the actual result than Ipsos.
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 8, 2024 22:33:03 GMT
From Redfield Wilton Scotland Westminster VI (3-4 February): Labour 34% (-1) SNP 33% (-2) Conservative 18% (+1) Lib Dem 8% (-1) Reform UK 4% (+2)Green 2% (–) Alba 1% (NEW) Other 0% (-1) Changes +/- 9-11 January
La Reform En Marche?
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Feb 9, 2024 2:52:26 GMT
Given the trend in Scottish council by-elections and the Rutherglen & Hamilton by-election result, my money is on Redfield & Wilton being more accurate than Ipsos.
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Post by yellowfox on Feb 9, 2024 11:07:20 GMT
From Redfield Wilton Scotland Westminster VI (3-4 February): Labour 34% (-1) SNP 33% (-2) Conservative 18% (+1) Lib Dem 8% (-1) Reform UK 4% (+2)Green 2% (–) Alba 1% (NEW) Other 0% (-1) Changes +/- 9-11 January
La Reform En Marche? That’s what I mean by “bouncy”. The Holyrood part of that poll actually has reform on 5%, which would probably mean a couple of seats and obviously won’t happen.
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Post by afleitch on Feb 9, 2024 14:11:30 GMT
Given the trend in Scottish council by-elections and the Rutherglen & Hamilton by-election result, my money is on Redfield & Wilton being more accurate than Ipsos. Actually the trend in council by-elections over the course of 2023 don't necessarily give that conclusion. Starting from a lower base (SNP vote effectively being flat across local elections since 2007 regardless of Westminster/Holyrood) the SNP are down less than 8 points. A slump. And no wins under their belt. At the time of the locals, the SNP were polling pretty much in the mid 40's. So an 8 point slump is suggestive of being in the high, rather than low 30s. Scottish polls may also be affected by what could be the next 'polling miss' that concerns some psephologists with rUK polls. That is excluding 'Don't knows' who still intend to vote rather than as some pollsters do and 'push' them or allocate them based on similar demographics. In rUK that disproportionately affects 2019 Tory voters, Brexit supporters etc. In Scotland, it's SNP voters. IPSOS are quite good in that they end up with smaller numbers of D/Ks. Some pollsters in Scotland exclude higher numbers of D/Ks then those saying they will vote Lib Dem or in some cases, even Tory. When ever I've allocated them in line with the voting intentions of those of a similar past vote recall, it usually uplifts the SNP vote by about 2 points. It'll all sort itself out when the campaign starts, as will the Green/Reform shares.
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Post by andrewp on Mar 1, 2024 11:11:19 GMT
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention:
SNP: 38% (+2) LAB: 33% (-1) CON: 15% (-1) LDM: 8% (=)
Via @survation, 14-20 Feb. Changes w/ 23-25 Jan.
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Post by afleitch on Mar 1, 2024 11:22:24 GMT
MOE stuff but biggest SNP lead with them since last summer.
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Post by yellowfox on Mar 4, 2024 12:39:18 GMT
Scottish Westminster Voting Intention: SNP: 38% (+2) LAB: 33% (-1) CON: 15% (-1) LDM: 8% (=) Via @survation, 14-20 Feb. Changes w/ 23-25 Jan. For completion's sake, Electoral Calculus projects this as 37 SNP seat, 14 Labour, 4 Lib Dem and 2 Cons. Interesting though that a 5 point SNP lead has several more central belt seats either statistically, or even pretty much literally, tied. Starting to think the election night map might not have a clear narrative about where the SNP are falling back.
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Post by timmullen on Mar 13, 2024 17:13:34 GMT
Labour and the SNP are tied in Scotland.
Scotland Westminster VI (10-11 Mar):
Labour 34% (–) SNP 34% (+1) Conservative 16% (-2) Lib Dem 6% (-2) Reform UK 4% (–) Green 4% (+2) Alba 1% (–) Other 0% (–)
Changes +/- 3-4 Feb
redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-indep…
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Post by jimboo2017 on Mar 13, 2024 20:54:33 GMT
Apparently Don't Know lead in FM choice
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Post by yellowfox on Mar 13, 2024 21:15:41 GMT
Lab 27, SNP 20, Con 6, LD 4 in terms of seats.
Plausible, and a remarkable difference in terms of seats between SNP+5 and SNP+0.
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Post by andrewp on Apr 10, 2024 9:48:56 GMT
YouGov Westminster voting intention (Scotland, 25 Mar - 2 Apr):
Labour: 33% (+1) SNP: 31% (-2) Con: 14% (-6) Lib Dem: 7% (+2) Reform UK: 7% (+5) Green: 5% (=)
Changes from October 23.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 10, 2024 11:07:52 GMT
Scottish Tories getting some damage from Reform there by the looks
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