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Post by michaelarden on Jan 28, 2024 20:53:20 GMT
There's around a third of indy supporters voting for unionist parties (principally Labour). If Labour poll around 35% as polls currently suggest - fully 15% points will be indy supporters - that's going to be an interesting dynamic for both the Labour Westminster government and the Scottish party. Maintaining an ultra unionist position (basically the same as the Scottish Tories) will surely not be possible if they want to keep this chunk on board for more than one election? You can also easily see how the SNP may be able to attract a significant chunk back to them in the upcoming GE as it becomes clearer that Labour will win without Scotland. I am not convinced by this argument, which is being heavily pushed by Humza Yousaf, that Labour doesn't need Scotland, nor convinced it is a winning argument. The truth is, people like to be on the winning side. In Scotland, for many years, that side has been the SNP, but this seems to no longer be true. The Yousaf/SNP argument sounds like that of a loser. When demographic voting shifts occur, they are often quite dramatic, and I don’t see Scotland being too far off the rest of the UK if this happens. Fair enough - but that has nothing to do with my first point how does an incoming Labour government(s) deal with c40% of its voters disagreeing with it on the fundamental constitutional issue of the day?
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
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Post by CatholicLeft on Jan 28, 2024 21:25:17 GMT
I am not convinced by this argument, which is being heavily pushed by Humza Yousaf, that Labour doesn't need Scotland, nor convinced it is a winning argument. The truth is, people like to be on the winning side. In Scotland, for many years, that side has been the SNP, but this seems to no longer be true. The Yousaf/SNP argument sounds like that of a loser. When demographic voting shifts occur, they are often quite dramatic, and I don’t see Scotland being too far off the rest of the UK if this happens. Fair enough - but that has nothing to do with my first point how does an incoming Labour government(s) deal with c40% of its voters disagreeing with it on the fundamental constitutional issue of the day? If Labour governs well, and does well economically, the number for independence probably drops. Support for independence is higher under a Tory government, lower under a Labour government.
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Chris from Brum
Lib Dem
What I need is a strong drink and a peer group.
Posts: 9,228
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Post by Chris from Brum on Jan 28, 2024 22:44:56 GMT
Also with the SNP no longer in the ascendancy and pushing independence above everything else, support will likely drop.
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Post by yellowfox on Feb 2, 2024 11:25:58 GMT
Survation for True North (23/1-25/1)
SNP: 36% Lab: 34% Con: 16% LD: 8% Others: 7%
Seats
John Curtice: SNP 23 | Lab 23 | Con 6 | LD 5 Electoral Calculus: SNP 24 | Lab 24 | Con 5 | LD 4
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
Posts: 36,762
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Post by The Bishop on Feb 2, 2024 12:54:40 GMT
And what is "True North"?
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Post by afleitch on Feb 2, 2024 13:26:39 GMT
And what is "True North"? A PR firm.
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Post by ntyuk1707 on Feb 2, 2024 14:40:11 GMT
Survation for True North (23/1-25/1) SNP: 36% Lab: 34% Con: 16% LD: 8% Others: 7% Seats John Curtice: SNP 23 | Lab 23 | Con 6 | LD 5 Electoral Calculus: SNP 24 | Lab 24 | Con 5 | LD 4 On independence: No 47% Yes 43% DK 10% With don't knows removed: No 52% Yes 48%
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Post by manchesterman on Feb 2, 2024 16:53:56 GMT
And what is "True North"? Its a fixed point on the globe which indicates the axis of rotation of the earth
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Post by doktorb🏳️🌈🏳️⚧️ on Feb 2, 2024 16:55:57 GMT
And what is "True North"? Its a fixed point on the globe which indicates the axis of rotation of the earth Lancashire. The answer is Lancashire
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 2, 2024 20:15:25 GMT
Its a fixed point on the globe which indicates the axis of rotation of the earth Lancashire. The answer is Lancashire I can assure you after a long life of various experiences that 'Lancashire' is never the 'Answer' to any possible sensible question that can be formulated in a sane mind.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Feb 2, 2024 20:19:03 GMT
Lancashire. The answer is Lancashire I can assure you after a long life of various experiences that 'Lancashire' is never the 'Answer' to any possible sensible question that can be formulated in a sane mind. Nay. It's the answer to "What county is on wrong side o't'Pennines".
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Post by carlton43 on Feb 2, 2024 20:21:51 GMT
I can assure you after a long life of various experiences that 'Lancashire' is never the 'Answer' to any possible sensible question that can be formulated in a sane mind. Nay. It's the answer to "What county is on wrong side o't'Pennines". 'Appen the answer to that would be Cheshire and Bowland.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,310
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 2, 2024 20:29:03 GMT
Lancashire. The answer is Lancashire I can assure you after a long life of various experiences that 'Lancashire' is never the 'Answer' to any possible sensible question that can be formulated in a sane mind. I remember my granddad saying that "Lancashire" was the answer to any sane enquiry of greatness, whilst "Derbyshire" was the response to any other enquiry.
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batman
Labour
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Member is Online
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Post by batman on Feb 2, 2024 21:17:22 GMT
I am a supporter of Lancashire CCC though I have never attended a home game. I have watched them play away on several occasions. I have great admiration for James Anderson.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Feb 2, 2024 21:48:21 GMT
Its a fixed point on the globe which indicates the axis of rotation of the earth Lancashire. The answer is Lancashire Well at least you admit lancastrians are earthbound, and that you thereby agree by default that you have to travel to Yorkshire to reach heaven.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
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Post by CatholicLeft on Feb 2, 2024 23:10:24 GMT
Lancashire. The answer is Lancashire Well at least you admit lancastrians are earthbound, and that you thereby agree by default that you have to travel to Yorkshire to reach heaven. Nope, Lancashire is the launchpad.
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Post by Daft H'a'porth A'peth A'pith on Feb 3, 2024 9:23:10 GMT
Well at least you admit lancastrians are earthbound, and that you thereby agree by default that you have to travel to Yorkshire to reach heaven. Nope, Lancashire is the launchpad.
Lancashire may well be the launchpad, that doesn't stop Yorkshire being heaven.
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Post by yellowfox on Feb 7, 2024 13:08:47 GMT
Ipsos Mori for STV News (25/1-31/1)
Westminster SNP: 39% Lab: 32% Con: 14% LD: 6% Grn: 4% Others: 4%
Seats
Electoral Calculus: SNP 40 | Lab 13 | Con 2 | LD 2
Holyrood (Constituency/List)
SNP: 39%/33% Lab: 30%/31% Con: 14%/13% Grn: 6%/11% LD: 7%/7% Oth: 5%/5%
Seats ElectionPolling.co.uk: SNP 55 | Lab 41 | Con 15 | Grn 10 | LD 8 (Government majority of 1)
Independence (excl DKs) Yes: 53% No: 47%
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Tony Otim
Green
Suffering from Brexistential Despair
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Post by Tony Otim on Feb 7, 2024 16:59:00 GMT
Ipsos do seem quite consistently at the most SNP and indy end of the spectrum. These figures are actually a small swing to Lab and No since their November poll.
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andrewp
Non-Aligned
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Post by andrewp on Feb 7, 2024 17:50:25 GMT
From Redfield Wilton
Scotland Westminster VI (3-4 February):
Labour 34% (-1) SNP 33% (-2) Conservative 18% (+1) Lib Dem 8% (-1) Reform UK 4% (+2) Green 2% (–) Alba 1% (NEW) Other 0% (-1)
Changes +/- 9-11 January
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