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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 23, 2024 10:19:44 GMT
Two Republicans have progressed from the Jungle primary for Kevin McCarthy’s former seat, very rare example of a safe GOP seat in California The same two are also on the general election ballot in November.
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 23, 2024 10:21:06 GMT
Mike Gallagher (R), Wisonsin 8th District, has announced he's retiring early on the 19th of April and his seat will remain vacant until November.Sounds like MTG's latest shenanigans have made him decide to retire before November. Which reduces the GOP majority to....4?
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 23, 2024 10:30:30 GMT
Mike Gallagher (R), Wisonsin 8th District, has announced he's retiring early on the 19th of April and his seat will remain vacant until November.Sounds like MTG's latest shenanigans have made him decide to retire before November. Which reduces the GOP majority to....4? Current composition of the House in 218-213 with 4 vacancies. So the majority is 5 at the moment, will drop to 4 when Gallagher leaves and then to 3 when the Democrats win the special election for NY-26 on 30th April. It will however increase following the special election in CA-20 on 21st May and likely again following the special elections in OH-06 on 11th June and CO-04 on 25th June.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 25, 2024 0:09:30 GMT
24 hours before the filing deadline Tammy Murphy has withdrawn from the New Jersey Senate race, apparently deciding that spending a load of money to lose was not a good idea. Rep Andy Kim is now almost certain to win the Democratic primary.
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maxque
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Post by maxque on Mar 25, 2024 1:41:55 GMT
Very unlikely, Id say. The primary polling showed him getting less than 10% of the Democratic vote, even if he takes that much in the general the Dem would get over 50%. A slight quibble here but Menendez taking 10% in the the general, assuming it virtually all comes at the the Democrats expense, could make this very, very close. However Menendez as an Independent wouldn't poll anything like that. He is a machine politician in a state where the party machine is so powerful that the state doesn't deserve to be considered a democracy. He has little personal appeal. It seems the county lines system is in danger, due to a lawsuit by Andy Kim himself and two Congressional candidates and some extremely effective campaigning by Kim himself (trying to turn the Senate primary into a referendum on it).
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 27, 2024 13:39:31 GMT
Alabama state house special election yesterday in HD-10. Note that I'm condensing this from the write-up on electoral-vote.com
R defending, having won by 7 points last time. Trump won by 2 in 2020. So swingy, but R-leaning. Previous rep had to resign because he was dodgy - certainly a potential factor in this campaign. D candidate who lost last time came back for another go, and made her campaign all about abortion and IVF rights.
How much difference did the abortion rights campaign make? She won 63-37. So from down by 7 to up by 26.
This is going to be a massive issue in the GE. I wonder how many people in the south are prone to being openly anti-abortion, where their pastors, friends and neighbours can see them, and pro-abortion in the privacy of the polling booth? It's certainly been seen elsewhere.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Apr 2, 2024 11:51:05 GMT
The Florida supreme court has ruled to allow the new state restrictions on abortion beyond 6 weeks. It has also allowed two ballot initiatives for November, 1 to put abortion rights in the state constitution, and 1 to legalise marijuana. All of these may potentially have a significant impact on all the November races.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 2, 2024 12:43:45 GMT
The Florida supreme court has ruled to allow the new state restrictions on abortion beyond 6 weeks. It has also allowed two ballot initiatives for November, 1 to put abortion rights in the state constitution, and 1 to legalise marijuana. All of these may potentially have a significant impact on all the November races. I can’t see it stopping Trump and Scott winning their statewide races albeit it’ll give the Democrats more reason to give them a good go. But it could change tight House races which can then of course affect control of the House overall It puts Trump on the spot again where abortion is concerned and that’ll be noticed nationwide, one issue that he’d clearly rather not talk about too much. Another thing for him to love DeSantis for
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The Bishop
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Post by The Bishop on Apr 3, 2024 12:39:20 GMT
Who knows, maybe DeSantis knows all that very well. He has little reason to love Trump after all.
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Apr 4, 2024 22:54:33 GMT
Unusual situation in California's open primary / top two runoff system - in CA-16, the votes for second place were tied between two candidates, so both advance to the general election.
It's an open seat as Anna Eshoo (D) is retiring. All of the top three are Democrats as it's a very Democratic area just south of San Francisco, including Silicon Valley and parts of San Jose.
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Post by stb12 on Apr 22, 2024 18:36:07 GMT
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