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Post by timmullen on Mar 6, 2024 10:33:55 GMT
I will never understand why so many people thought that two Democrats would advance to the general election. For that to happen it would have needed both a very close race between the two leading Democrats and the GOP vote to splinter. The latter never looked likely once Garvey entered the race. It is however an absolute humiliation for Katie Porter who is currently sitting on just 13% of the vote. I doubt her political career is over but such a poor showing is a real setback and of course there is unlikely to be another open Senate seat in California for 20 years or more. In other news Rep Steve Womack (R-AR) survived a challenge from his right by defeating state senator Clint Penzo 54-46. Penzo had run hard against Womack (a Scalise loyalist) for voting against Jim Jordan as Speaker. I’m sure there was a chance of two Democrats advancing, Garvey raised next to no money and didn’t run a TV commercial; all his publicity has been Schiff trying to shut Porter out; I’ve not figured out why, but Porter, once a darling of the “progressive” wing, seems to have lost her lustre amongst them and they were (equally unsuccessfully) pushing Barbara Lee for a top two spot. (Side note, Garvey’s personal life could actually make Trump’s look tame!).
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Post by stb12 on Mar 6, 2024 10:41:41 GMT
I will never understand why so many people thought that two Democrats would advance to the general election. For that to happen it would have needed both a very close race between the two leading Democrats and the GOP vote to splinter. The latter never looked likely once Garvey entered the race. It is however an absolute humiliation for Katie Porter who is currently sitting on just 13% of the vote. I doubt her political career is over but such a poor showing is a real setback and of course there is unlikely to be another open Senate seat in California for 20 years or more. In other news Rep Steve Womack (R-AR) survived a challenge from his right by defeating state senator Clint Penzo 54-46. Penzo had run hard against Womack (a Scalise loyalist) for voting against Jim Jordan as Speaker. It was certainly a gamble for Porter to give up her House seat and with a result like this it clearly was a mistake
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Post by stb12 on Mar 6, 2024 10:43:58 GMT
I will never understand why so many people thought that two Democrats would advance to the general election. For that to happen it would have needed both a very close race between the two leading Democrats and the GOP vote to splinter. The latter never looked likely once Garvey entered the race. It is however an absolute humiliation for Katie Porter who is currently sitting on just 13% of the vote. I doubt her political career is over but such a poor showing is a real setback and of course there is unlikely to be another open Senate seat in California for 20 years or more. In other news Rep Steve Womack (R-AR) survived a challenge from his right by defeating state senator Clint Penzo 54-46. Penzo had run hard against Womack (a Scalise loyalist) for voting against Jim Jordan as Speaker. I’m sure there was a chance of two Democrats advancing, Garvey raised next to no money and didn’t run a TV commercial; all his publicity has been Schiff trying to shut Porter out; I’ve not figured out why, but Porter, once a darling of the “progressive” wing, seems to have lost her lustre amongst them and they were (equally unsuccessfully) pushing Barbara Lee for a top two spot. (Side note, Garvey’s personal life could actually make Trump’s look tame!). For all Schiff might have an image of being part of the moderate establishment, his time as impeachment manager during Trump’s first trial and him generally having a lot of clashes with MAGA world must have given him a lot of credit with the progressive base
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 6, 2024 10:46:53 GMT
I will never understand why so many people thought that two Democrats would advance to the general election. For that to happen it would have needed both a very close race between the two leading Democrats and the GOP vote to splinter. The latter never looked likely once Garvey entered the race. It is however an absolute humiliation for Katie Porter who is currently sitting on just 13% of the vote. I doubt her political career is over but such a poor showing is a real setback and of course there is unlikely to be another open Senate seat in California for 20 years or more. In other news Rep Steve Womack (R-AR) survived a challenge from his right by defeating state senator Clint Penzo 54-46. Penzo had run hard against Womack (a Scalise loyalist) for voting against Jim Jordan as Speaker. I’m sure there was a chance of two Democrats advancing, Garvey raised next to no money and didn’t run a TV commercial; all his publicity has been Schiff trying to shut Porter out; I’ve not figured out why, but Porter, once a darling of the “progressive” wing, seems to have lost her lustre amongst them and they were (equally unsuccessfully) pushing Barbara Lee for a top two spot. (Side note, Garvey’s personal life could actually make Trump’s look tame!). Garvey didn't really need commercials, his name recognition was enough against a GOP field of unknowns. Had it been close there was a case that Schiff's intervention made the difference but given the margin it was obviously not needed.
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Post by timmullen on Mar 6, 2024 10:57:12 GMT
I’m sure there was a chance of two Democrats advancing, Garvey raised next to no money and didn’t run a TV commercial; all his publicity has been Schiff trying to shut Porter out; I’ve not figured out why, but Porter, once a darling of the “progressive” wing, seems to have lost her lustre amongst them and they were (equally unsuccessfully) pushing Barbara Lee for a top two spot. (Side note, Garvey’s personal life could actually make Trump’s look tame!). Garvey didn't really need commercials, his name recognition was enough against a GOP field of unknowns. Had it been close there was a case that Schiff's intervention made the difference but given the margin it was obviously not needed. Back in January Garvey was at best tied in polling with Porter at 15%, he’s only pulled away in the last fortnight, which, coincidentally, coincides with Schiff going negative on him.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 6, 2024 11:01:11 GMT
Makes sense as a campaign tactic at the end of the day, I’m really not sure about jungle primary systems that allow two people from the same party to end up in the general election
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 6, 2024 12:11:08 GMT
Garvey didn't really need commercials, his name recognition was enough against a GOP field of unknowns. Had it been close there was a case that Schiff's intervention made the difference but given the margin it was obviously not needed. Back in January Garvey was at best tied in polling with Porter at 15%, he’s only pulled away in the last fortnight, which, coincidentally, coincides with Schiff going negative on him. Most of these early polls were showing absurdly low figures for the total GOP vote and so it was obvious that they weren't going to reflect what happened when people voted. The total GOP vote was always going to be around a third of the vote and Garvey was always likely to take the vast majority of it. And lets not forget that Porter also played this game and ran ads trying to boost Eric Early. The chances of two Democrats going through were always a long shot but they were pretty much ended by the combination of Barbara Lee and Steve Garvey entering the race.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 6, 2024 12:19:31 GMT
Another interesting to thing is the fairly substantial difference between votes cast in the regular primary and the special primary (which is for the last few weeks of Feinstein's term). In the later there were fewer no hope candidates so the comparison is not perfect by Schiff is down a couple of points while Porter and Lee are both up a couple of points.
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The Bishop
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Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 6, 2024 12:40:44 GMT
Kyrsten Sinema not standing for re-election in Arizona. She was regularly polling in the low 20s and in third place. Helps the Democrats chances of retaining the Senate. Tbh my only response is "good riddance".
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Post by stb12 on Mar 6, 2024 12:49:33 GMT
Kyrsten Sinema not standing for re-election in Arizona. She was regularly polling in the low 20s and in third place. Helps the Democrats chances of retaining the Senate. Tbh my only response is "good riddance". As I alluded to in an earlier post I just can’t see the departure of another Senate deal maker as a good thing overall, Romney and Manchin are also going and a few others have left in recent cycles That’s not to make Sinema herself out to be perfect by any means but overall it feels like the Senate is going to end up the total partisan mess that the House is
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Mar 6, 2024 14:19:28 GMT
Tbh my only response is "good riddance". As I alluded to in an earlier post I just can’t see the departure of another Senate deal maker as a good thing overall, Romney and Manchin are also going and a few others have left in recent cycles That’s not to make Sinema herself out to be perfect by any means but overall it feels like the Senate is going to end up the total partisan mess that the House is she was already a has-been
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Post by stb12 on Mar 6, 2024 14:36:53 GMT
As I alluded to in an earlier post I just can’t see the departure of another Senate deal maker as a good thing overall, Romney and Manchin are also going and a few others have left in recent cycles That’s not to make Sinema herself out to be perfect by any means but overall it feels like the Senate is going to end up the total partisan mess that the House is she was already a has-been Maybe but she was at the centre of the negotiations for major bipartisan legislation that has passed under Biden’s presidency i.e. Infrastructure Bill, CHIPS act, Gun Safety bill and the Same Sex Marriage act Admittedly the negotiations she was doing just there with the proposed Borders/Ukraine funding bill ended up bombing but I think that was more the fault of it being a presidential year with Trump putting the pressure on than anything else
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nelson
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Post by nelson on Mar 6, 2024 16:09:11 GMT
she was already a has-been Maybe but she was at the centre of the negotiations for major bipartisan legislation that has passed under Biden’s presidency i.e. Infrastructure Bill, CHIPS act, Gun Safety bill and the Same Sex Marriage act Admittedly the negotiations she was doing just there with the proposed Borders/Ukraine funding bill ended up bombing but I think that was more the fault of it being a presidential year with Trump putting the pressure on than anything else I meant that she had no chance of getting reelected.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 6, 2024 16:19:57 GMT
Maybe but she was at the centre of the negotiations for major bipartisan legislation that has passed under Biden’s presidency i.e. Infrastructure Bill, CHIPS act, Gun Safety bill and the Same Sex Marriage act Admittedly the negotiations she was doing just there with the proposed Borders/Ukraine funding bill ended up bombing but I think that was more the fault of it being a presidential year with Trump putting the pressure on than anything else I meant that she had no chance of getting reelected. Ah ok, yes there didn’t seem to be much of a path to be re-elected as an independent and staying and fighting in the Democratic primary would have been very difficult as rightly or wrongly she’s viewed very negatively by their base
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 7, 2024 10:39:18 GMT
Amusingly Katie Porter gave a concession speech, if you can call it that, with about as much grace that George Galloway usually musters on such occasions. Despite having raised $28 million dollars she claimed that the election was "rigged" by billionaires. She has issued a statement since clarifying that she wasn't questioning the integrity of the election but her outburst is an apt demonstration of why only a single member of the California delegation supported her.
Incidentally the house seat she is vacating will be very competitive in November. Current numbers from the primary are GOP: 51, Dem: 46, Ind: 3
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Post by stb12 on Mar 8, 2024 9:07:34 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Mar 12, 2024 13:29:46 GMT
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Post by timmullen on Mar 12, 2024 13:34:21 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Mar 12, 2024 13:49:59 GMT
Indeed, not a big surprise however, Steve Daines has done a pretty good job of getting him to support the chosen ‘establishment’ candidates Exception seems to be in Ohio where the NRSC have decided to stay neutral in the primary. Trump has endorsed Bernie Moreno while Mike DeWine and Rob Portman have endorsed Matt Dolan so it’ll be interesting to see if that contest ends up bruising
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Post by Davıd Boothroyd on Mar 12, 2024 18:27:13 GMT
Ken Buck (R-CO 4) is resigning at the end of next week - further narrows the Republican lead in the House.
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