The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 13, 2024 13:39:40 GMT
Ken Buck (R-CO 4) is resigning at the end of next week - further narrows the Republican lead in the House. Presumably it is a safe GOP seat, though?
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Post by timmullen on Mar 13, 2024 13:58:01 GMT
Ken Buck (R-CO 4) is resigning at the end of next week - further narrows the Republican lead in the House. Presumably it is a safe GOP seat, though? Yes, according to The Cook Partisan Voting Index at R+13 it’s the most Republican district in the State, and on any of its recent incarnations Democrats have failed to crack 40% of the vote. However Governor Jared Polis has already scheduled the special election for 25 June, meaning the Republicans are going to be a seat down. His resignation also creates a potential lol within the Party - having announced his intention not to seek reelection, Lauren Boebert had announced her Baldrick-like cunning plan to switch Districts and run in Buck’s ultra safe one; now she’s faced with the dilemma of either running in the Special and having to resign her own seat triggering another special election, or trying to defend her current very marginal one which she’d already announced she was willing to abandon. Worth noting the change in the GOP as well - Buck who now believes his Party has lost credibility was the insurgent Senate candidate backed by the Tea Party against Michael Bennet following Ken Salazar’s appointment to Barack Obama’s first Cabinet.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 13, 2024 17:00:42 GMT
Presumably it is a safe GOP seat, though? Yes, according to The Cook Partisan Voting Index at R+13 it’s the most Republican district in the State, and on any of its recent incarnations Democrats have failed to crack 40% of the vote. However Governor Jared Polis has already scheduled the special election for 25 June, meaning the Republicans are going to be a seat down. His resignation also creates a potential lol within the Party - having announced his intention not to seek reelection, Lauren Boebert had announced her Baldrick-like cunning plan to switch Districts and run in Buck’s ultra safe one; now she’s faced with the dilemma of either running in the Special and having to resign her own seat triggering another special election, or trying to defend her current very marginal one which she’d already announced she was willing to abandon. Worth noting the change in the GOP as well - Buck who now believes his Party has lost credibility was the insurgent Senate candidate backed by the Tea Party against Michael Bennet following Ken Salazar’s appointment to Barack Obama’s first Cabinet. Buck is a hardline conservative in pretty much all of the traditional senses, but he’s been heavily put off by the continuing cult surrounding Trump and the election denial as well as focus on pointless things like impeaching Biden
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Post by timmullen on Mar 13, 2024 17:06:09 GMT
Yes, according to The Cook Partisan Voting Index at R+13 it’s the most Republican district in the State, and on any of its recent incarnations Democrats have failed to crack 40% of the vote. However Governor Jared Polis has already scheduled the special election for 25 June, meaning the Republicans are going to be a seat down. His resignation also creates a potential lol within the Party - having announced his intention not to seek reelection, Lauren Boebert had announced her Baldrick-like cunning plan to switch Districts and run in Buck’s ultra safe one; now she’s faced with the dilemma of either running in the Special and having to resign her own seat triggering another special election, or trying to defend her current very marginal one which she’d already announced she was willing to abandon. Worth noting the change in the GOP as well - Buck who now believes his Party has lost credibility was the insurgent Senate candidate backed by the Tea Party against Michael Bennet following Ken Salazar’s appointment to Barack Obama’s first Cabinet. Buck is a hardline conservative in pretty much all of the traditional senses, but he’s been heavily put off by the continuing cult surrounding Trump and the election denial as well as focus on pointless things like impeaching Biden It appears that the impeachment of Homeland Security Secretary Mayorkas was the final straw.
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CatholicLeft
Labour
2032 posts until I was "accidentally" deleted.
Posts: 6,315
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Post by CatholicLeft on Mar 13, 2024 21:51:35 GMT
Presumably it is a safe GOP seat, though? Yes, according to The Cook Partisan Voting Index at R+13 it’s the most Republican district in the State, and on any of its recent incarnations Democrats have failed to crack 40% of the vote. However Governor Jared Polis has already scheduled the special election for 25 June, meaning the Republicans are going to be a seat down. His resignation also creates a potential lol within the Party - having announced his intention not to seek reelection, Lauren Boebert had announced her Baldrick-like cunning plan to switch Districts and run in Buck’s ultra safe one; now she’s faced with the dilemma of either running in the Special and having to resign her own seat triggering another special election, or trying to defend her current very marginal one which she’d already announced she was willing to abandon. Worth noting the change in the GOP as well - Buck who now believes his Party has lost credibility was the insurgent Senate candidate backed by the Tea Party against Michael Bennet following Ken Salazar’s appointment to Barack Obama’s first Cabinet. I am sure that Ken Buck was aware of all the implications of his resignation for Boebert. He truly does not give a monkey's for her. She has announced that she is not a candidate for the special election and will now see another Republican elected in a seat she wants. Sweet joy.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 16:03:36 GMT
Bob Casey’s lead is narrowing apparently, usual caveats about this stage in the cycle etc of course
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iain
Lib Dem
Posts: 10,808
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Post by iain on Mar 14, 2024 16:41:14 GMT
Bob Casey’s lead is narrowing apparently, usual caveats about this stage in the cycle etc of course I don't think Bob Casey will be particularly worried about polls showing him outrunning the top of the ticket by 8 points.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 16:54:56 GMT
Bob Casey’s lead is narrowing apparently, usual caveats about this stage in the cycle etc of course I don't think Bob Casey will be particularly worried about polls showing him outrunning the top of the ticket by 8 points. He won’t be but he won’t be complacent either, the GOP Senate election operation seems to be being run quite well in this cycle, not withstanding the issues Trump at the top of the ticket can cause
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Post by stb12 on Mar 14, 2024 21:16:36 GMT
That sounds like some ego
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 15, 2024 13:04:01 GMT
Chuck Schumer is trying to recruit Joe Manchin to run as an Independent in WV, and Manchin hasn't ruled it out.
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Post by timmullen on Mar 15, 2024 13:07:41 GMT
Chuck Schumer is trying to recruit Joe Manchin to run as an Independent in WV, and Manchin hasn't ruled it out. I think we discussed this, possibly in the Presidential Election thread, when Manchin ruled himself out of running as the No Labels candidate; most of the American media were reporting on the discussions between Schumer and Manchin but some of our illustrious contributors suggested I was “incorrect”.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 15, 2024 13:13:14 GMT
Chuck Schumer is trying to recruit Joe Manchin to run as an Independent in WV, and Manchin hasn't ruled it out. timmullen mentioned that a few weeks as being rumoured. This is a quote: “I think that’s a long, long, long-shot scenario,” Manchin told CNN’s Manu Raju. “So I don’t anticipate that happening. “I don’t anticipate running.” thehill.com/homenews/senate/4534206-manchin-changing-mind-retirement-long-shot-scenario/amp/So like you say not ruled out but sounds very unlikely. I just don’t see much motivation to change his mind, he already essentially is a Independent that caucuses with the Democrats anyway and he’s clearly still fed up with the partisanship in the political system. Add to that more fellow deal makers like Romney and Sinema are leaving
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Post by stb12 on Mar 15, 2024 13:14:19 GMT
Chuck Schumer is trying to recruit Joe Manchin to run as an Independent in WV, and Manchin hasn't ruled it out. I think we discussed this, possibly in the Presidential Election thread, when Manchin ruled himself out of running as the No Labels candidate; most of the American media were reporting on the discussions between Schumer and Manchin but some of our illustrious contributors suggested I was “incorrect”. Well I remember discussing it and I definitely wasn’t saying you were incorrect that Schumer was trying it, just that I found the idea of Manchin changing his mind unlikely
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Post by timmullen on Mar 15, 2024 13:47:24 GMT
Chuck Schumer is trying to recruit Joe Manchin to run as an Independent in WV, and Manchin hasn't ruled it out. timmullen mentioned that a few weeks as being rumoured. This is a quote: “I think that’s a long, long, long-shot scenario,” Manchin told CNN’s Manu Raju. “So I don’t anticipate that happening. “I don’t anticipate running.” thehill.com/homenews/senate/4534206-manchin-changing-mind-retirement-long-shot-scenario/amp/So like you say not ruled out but sounds very unlikely. I just don’t see much motivation to change his mind, he already essentially is a Independent that caucuses with the Democrats anyway and he’s clearly still fed up with the partisanship in the political system. Add to that more fellow deal makers like Romney and Sinema are leaving The theories being put about for changing his mind range from ego, a dislike of Jim Justice, a feeling that he acted as something of a brake on the worst excesses during Trump’s first term and could do so again, bargaining power with Schumer, and forcing the GOP to spend money in a State they shouldn’t have to spend money in.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 15, 2024 14:01:25 GMT
timmullen mentioned that a few weeks as being rumoured. This is a quote: “I think that’s a long, long, long-shot scenario,” Manchin told CNN’s Manu Raju. “So I don’t anticipate that happening. “I don’t anticipate running.” thehill.com/homenews/senate/4534206-manchin-changing-mind-retirement-long-shot-scenario/amp/So like you say not ruled out but sounds very unlikely. I just don’t see much motivation to change his mind, he already essentially is a Independent that caucuses with the Democrats anyway and he’s clearly still fed up with the partisanship in the political system. Add to that more fellow deal makers like Romney and Sinema are leaving The theories being put about for changing his mind range from ego, a dislike of Jim Justice, a feeling that he acted as something of a brake on the worst excesses during Trump’s first term and could do so again, bargaining power with Schumer, and forcing the GOP to spend money in a State they shouldn’t have to spend money in. That’s all valid but I think the downsides outweigh for him, including that there’s a good chance he’d lose anyway, hence announcing his retirement in the first place. I could be wrong of course, just a personal prediction
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Post by timmullen on Mar 15, 2024 14:04:05 GMT
The theories being put about for changing his mind range from ego, a dislike of Jim Justice, a feeling that he acted as something of a brake on the worst excesses during Trump’s first term and could do so again, bargaining power with Schumer, and forcing the GOP to spend money in a State they shouldn’t have to spend money in. That’s all valid but I think the downsides outweigh for him, hence announcing his retirement in the first place. I could be wrong of course, just a personal prediction The fact that they’re still apparently talking suggests that Manchin hasn’t, or doesn’t want, to totally close the door on the idea. The odds are probably slim, but I wouldn’t be “jaw hitting floor” surprised if he ran.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 15, 2024 14:26:46 GMT
That’s all valid but I think the downsides outweigh for him, hence announcing his retirement in the first place. I could be wrong of course, just a personal prediction The fact that they’re still apparently talking suggests that Manchin hasn’t, or doesn’t want, to totally close the door on the idea. The odds are probably slim, but I wouldn’t be “jaw hitting floor” surprised if he ran. I suppose Schumer is trying to sweeten the deal by offering to support him as an Independent but like I mentioned he already is like that essentially anyway, especially since the Democrats have got to a stage in West Virginia where it seems no-one else alive could stand the smallest chance of winning. Whether that would make beating Justice more or less likely would be interesting though
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Post by timmullen on Mar 15, 2024 14:32:57 GMT
The fact that they’re still apparently talking suggests that Manchin hasn’t, or doesn’t want, to totally close the door on the idea. The odds are probably slim, but I wouldn’t be “jaw hitting floor” surprised if he ran. I suppose Schumer is trying to sweeten the deal by offering to support him as an Independent but like I mentioned he already is like that essentially anyway, especially since the Democrats have got to a stage in West Virginia where it seems no-one else alive could stand the smallest chance of winning. Whether that would make beating Justice more or less likely would be interesting though I think it’s accepted he would run as an Independent and not a Democrat, rather in the mould of Joe Lieberman’s last election as a “Connecticut Independent” or something similar, and the DSCC did nothing to support now Governor Ned Lamont who had beaten Lieberman in the Democratic primary. I doubt whether he could beat Justice, but, as I say, it might force the Republicans to spend where they didn’t expect/want to spend, possibly to the benefit of someone like Sherrod Brown.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 16, 2024 13:48:00 GMT
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Post by stb12 on Mar 19, 2024 13:58:00 GMT
Still a pretty high number of undecided for this stage but the Trump endorsement seems to be taking Moreno over the line
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