weld
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Post by weld on Mar 19, 2024 13:59:22 GMT
Illinois primary today and two races stand out.
Danny K. Davis again faces Kina Collins for the Democratic nomination in Illinois' 7th, but this time the race is complicated by Melissa Conyears Ervin, current Chicago Treasurer. Davis won 52-46 over Collins last time. Collins did well last time but her fundraising has been pitiful this year. Conyears Ervin is actually the best funded candidate here.
In the 12th District, 2022 gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey seeks to oust Republican incumbent Mike Bost. However, Bost is vastly better funded and secured Trump's backing whereas the only big names backing Bailey are Matt Geatz from Florida and Mary Miller (IL-15). Given the endorsements and fund-raising here, I'd favour Bost.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 20, 2024 0:48:30 GMT
Illinois primary today and two races stand out. Danny K. Davis again faces Kina Collins for the Democratic nomination in Illinois' 7th, but this time the race is complicated by Melissa Conyears Ervin, current Chicago Treasurer. Davis won 52-46 over Collins last time. Collins did well last time but her fundraising has been pitiful this year. Conyears Ervin is actually the best funded candidate here. In the 12th District, 2022 gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey seeks to oust Republican incumbent Mike Bost. However, Bost is vastly better funded and secured Trump's backing whereas the only big names backing Bailey are Matt Geatz from Florida and Mary Miller (IL-15). Given the endorsements and fund-raising here, I'd favour Bost. Davis has won comfortably, partly due to split opposition. Bost looking good so far but only 4% reporting
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weld
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Post by weld on Mar 20, 2024 9:48:21 GMT
Illinois primary today and two races stand out. Danny K. Davis again faces Kina Collins for the Democratic nomination in Illinois' 7th, but this time the race is complicated by Melissa Conyears Ervin, current Chicago Treasurer. Davis won 52-46 over Collins last time. Collins did well last time but her fundraising has been pitiful this year. Conyears Ervin is actually the best funded candidate here. In the 12th District, 2022 gubernatorial nominee Darren Bailey seeks to oust Republican incumbent Mike Bost. However, Bost is vastly better funded and secured Trump's backing whereas the only big names backing Bailey are Matt Geatz from Florida and Mary Miller (IL-15). Given the endorsements and fund-raising here, I'd favour Bost. Davis has won comfortably, partly due to split opposition. Bost looking good so far but only 4% reporting Bost fends off Bailey by just over 3 points.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 20, 2024 10:09:07 GMT
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 20, 2024 10:39:11 GMT
Good news for Brown, I'd have thought - the Dems were running ratf**king ads suggesting 'Don't vote for Moreno, he's far too right wing', so they must think he's the most beatable.
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Post by timmullen on Mar 20, 2024 10:39:42 GMT
Davis has won comfortably, partly due to split opposition. Bost looking good so far but only 4% reporting Bost fends off Bailey by just over 3 points. The NYT map still hasn’t called this, and there’s one county with no results reported in the West of the District where Bailey’s worst performance is beating Bost 75-25; it may be too small a population to overturn Bost’s lead, but it doesn’t look like the AP are presuming that.
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Post by timmullen on Mar 20, 2024 10:45:52 GMT
Good news for Brown, I'd have thought - the Dems were running ratf**king ads suggesting 'Don't vote for Moreno, he's far too right wing', so they must think he's the most beatable. He’s the non-politician endorsed by Trump; the Secretary of State, Frank LaRose finished third - he was seen as the front runner until he messed up by trying to change the rules for State referendums to try and prevent the initiative codifying the right to an abortion in the state constitution passing, and Matt Dolan, who finished second is a fairly Trumpian State Senator endorsed by Governor Mike DeWine.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 20, 2024 10:48:18 GMT
Good news for Brown, I'd have thought - the Dems were running ratf**king ads suggesting 'Don't vote for Moreno, he's far too right wing', so they must think he's the most beatable. It would seem so, although the NRSC decided to stay neutral despite taking a hands-on approach in the primaries this cycle, so presumably they think he can win. Brown is no doubt a tough nut to crack but it is becoming tougher even for popular individuals to go against the natural trends of their state so it will be interesting
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 20, 2024 11:43:37 GMT
Bost fends off Bailey by just over 3 points. The NYT map still hasn’t called this, and there’s one county with no results reported in the West of the District where Bailey’s worst performance is beating Bost 75-25; it may be too small a population to overturn Bost’s lead, but it doesn’t look like the AP are presuming that. That is Lawrence county with a population of around 15,000 so probably around 2,000 votes in the GOP primary. Obviously no where near enough to overturn Bost's lead of 3,204. Unless there are more votes to come elsewhere or a load of absentee ballots then Bost has clearly won. There was a very clear divide with Bost winning every county in the South and West of the district by a large margin and Bailey winning the North and East by similar margins. There is nothing ideological about that divide, just their respective home turf.
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Post by timmullen on Mar 20, 2024 13:09:43 GMT
The NYT map still hasn’t called this, and there’s one county with no results reported in the West of the District where Bailey’s worst performance is beating Bost 75-25; it may be too small a population to overturn Bost’s lead, but it doesn’t look like the AP are presuming that. That is Lawrence county with a population of around 15,000 so probably around 2,000 votes in the GOP primary. Obviously no where near enough to overturn Bost's lead of 3,204. Unless there are more votes to come elsewhere or a load of absentee ballots then Bost has clearly won. There was a very clear divide with Bost winning every county in the South and West of the district by a large margin and Bailey winning the North and East by similar margins. There is nothing ideological about that divide, just their respective home turf. Yes, the geographical divide is glaringly obvious on the NYT map. I notice Lawrence haven’t reported any numbers in either Presidential primary either - Illinois answer to Tower Hamlets maybe 😆?
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Post by timmullen on Mar 22, 2024 6:18:24 GMT
Bob Menendez will not seek re-election as a Democrat but hopes to run, after he is exonerated, as an Independent Democrat:
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The Bishop
Labour
Down With Factionalism!
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Post by The Bishop on Mar 22, 2024 10:42:39 GMT
Ah well, as others have already said good luck with that
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Post by stb12 on Mar 22, 2024 10:51:59 GMT
The only possible interest to come from it would be if he could split the Democrat vote enough to let the Republican candidate win, but I’d think that’s unlikely
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 22, 2024 10:59:56 GMT
The only possible interest to come from it would be if he could split the Democrat vote enough to let the Republican candidate win, but I’d think that’s unlikely Very unlikely, Id say. The primary polling showed him getting less than 10% of the Democratic vote, even if he takes that much in the general the Dem would get over 50%.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 22, 2024 21:58:34 GMT
The only possible interest to come from it would be if he could split the Democrat vote enough to let the Republican candidate win, but I’d think that’s unlikely Very unlikely, Id say. The primary polling showed him getting less than 10% of the Democratic vote, even if he takes that much in the general the Dem would get over 50%. A slight quibble here but Menendez taking 10% in the the general, assuming it virtually all comes at the the Democrats expense, could make this very, very close. However Menendez as an Independent wouldn't poll anything like that. He is a machine politician in a state where the party machine is so powerful that the state doesn't deserve to be considered a democracy. He has little personal appeal.
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Post by jamesdoyle on Mar 22, 2024 22:51:09 GMT
Very unlikely, Id say. The primary polling showed him getting less than 10% of the Democratic vote, even if he takes that much in the general the Dem would get over 50%. A slight quibble here but Menendez taking 10% in the the general, assuming it virtually all comes at the the Democrats expense, could make this very, very close. However Menendez as an Independent wouldn't poll anything like that. He is a machine politician in a state where the party machine is so powerful that the state doesn't deserve to be considered a democracy. He has little personal appeal. 10% *of the Democratic vote*. That's a bit over 5% of the total.
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WJ
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Post by WJ on Mar 23, 2024 0:37:19 GMT
Mike Gallagher (R), Wisonsin 8th District, has announced he's retiring early on the 19th of April and his seat will remain vacant until November.
Sounds like MTG's latest shenanigans have made him decide to retire before November.
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Post by eastmidlandsright on Mar 23, 2024 9:53:36 GMT
Mike Gallagher (R), Wisonsin 8th District, has announced he's retiring early on the 19th of April and his seat will remain vacant until November. Sounds like MTG's latest shenanigans have made him decide to retire before November. I think he is more pissed off with the party in general than just one nutty member of the conference. In any event MTG hasn't done anything of significance. She has filed a non-privileged resolution which means it won't be debated or voted on.
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Post by stb12 on Mar 23, 2024 10:09:00 GMT
Two Republicans have progressed from the Jungle primary for Kevin McCarthy’s former seat, very rare example of a safe GOP seat in California
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Post by stb12 on Mar 23, 2024 10:14:30 GMT
Mike Gallagher (R), Wisonsin 8th District, has announced he's retiring early on the 19th of April and his seat will remain vacant until November. Sounds like MTG's latest shenanigans have made him decide to retire before November. The NRSC tried to recruit him to stand in the Senate race, instead he’s leaving politics altogether
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