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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 9, 2022 12:33:42 GMT
Manu has now renamed LREM to Renaissance. It is believed that MoDem (cult of Bayrou) will get 101 candidates as part of their deal, and Horizons (Philippe) 58.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 9, 2022 12:29:21 GMT
I've been reading Norman Stone's short history of Hungary and he mentioned in passing ' a weird mountainous tip of Southern Bavaria, which had remained violently anti-clerical since the sixteenth century', this being the exception to the general rule that German Marxists won no votes amongst Peasants. This was in the 1890s but I know how historic patterns of voting can reverberate through the ages (especially with the clerical/anti-clerical divide in mainland Europe). Does anyone know what area was being referred to? That's interesting. I'm not sure but it is probably somewhere where there was a strong BBB (Bavarian Farmers Union) vote-they had a secularist left wing led by a bloke called Gansdorfer, whose brother was a major SPD figure.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on May 9, 2022 9:46:18 GMT
CDU-SSW is generally considered not an option in much the way as CDU-Linke or anybody-AfD is. Haven't followed this campaign though. I don’t know if the issue still persists, but I believe the CDU previously attacked the SSW for increasingly being a left of centre party in disguise that is allowed to cheat the threshold. An accusation that isn't entirely unfair.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 26, 2022 19:06:33 GMT
Yeah, Hénin-Beaumont and Liévin are both very grim. They make Calais look like Monaco. Calais is the highest on that list I've knowingly been to, as almost everyone on here will have been I guess, and it is no less grim than its reputation. I don't think I've been to Hénin-Beaumont or Liévin but I've been to Lens and a few other areas round there so its possible. Lens is one of the grimmest cities I've been to anywhere Lens is on its way up of sorts. But you wouldn't want to linger and I'm struggling to think of a British city that really has that grimness (cross into Belgium and there are at least three worse places than Lens). Lille is great though. That and Toulouse might be my favourite cities in France.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 26, 2022 15:37:23 GMT
No doubt the format has gotten messed up... list of all towns in Metropolitan France of >15k inscrits where Macron got below his overall share Bruay-la-Buissière Pas de Calais 30.7 15k Hénin-Beaumont Pas de Calais 32.9 18k Liévin Pas de Calais 35.4 21k Marignane Bouches-du-R 35.6 23k Calais Pas de Calais 38.3 51k Les Pennes-Mirabeau Bouches-du-R 38.6 18k Agde Hérault 39.9 25k Always worth doing a Google street view tour of places on lists like this, for us lovers of poverty porn. Those in the South have a certain kind of charm in spite of it all - those in the North not so much.. Yeah, Hénin-Beaumont and Liévin are both very grim. They make Calais look like Monaco.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 26, 2022 7:10:36 GMT
Since Macron is now term-limited one might wonder what will happen in 5 years. His party is his construct. French politics is far more fluid than ours with quite large parties disappearing and reviving over relatively short periods and key personalities driving realignment. This is the crucial question. Maybe the Devil Wincarnate could give us his opinions. At this point, gut feeling alone-there will be an almighty battle for the succession and the winner will be someone we have not even thought about. If I'm going to pick a name though, I'd go for Julien Denormandie, currently at Agriculture-he was an early acolyte of Macron, has a not dissimilar profile but in engineering not finance. He'll probably be promoted to a senior position once Castex is knifed. The big question though: is Macron willing to let his creation wither in his absence, or will he hang around as an eminence grise? He could well end up dominating French politics in some manner for the next thirty years, like a less malevolent Andreotti.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 24, 2022 21:29:26 GMT
Why does everything always resort to the Nazis In this case, because the French are (and were) a lot keener on them then they like to admit. But also, in this case, because Strontium Dog has a bee in his bonnet about fascism, real and imagined. WW2 isn't even really relevant to why the RN, Zemmour etc exist. There's no Vichy regime hiding in the bushes. But there are all sorts of threads involved: classic French fascism, Catholic reaction, the pieds-noirs and their descendants, angry and marginalised small-town France, places that used to vote Commie and now vote fash, and pure protest. If there's a war that is relevant to far-right voting patterns in France, it probably isn't the Second World War. It is the Algerian War, and arguably the Cold War too. Both of their aftermath have changed voting patterns and in the case of the former whole demographics and entire cities. The most virulent fascists in Vichy were the technocrat, renegade members of the socialist parties. Which, ironically, describes Manu quite well!
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 24, 2022 19:17:57 GMT
Fairly clear and unambiguous victory. But the législatives are going to be fun.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 24, 2022 13:20:38 GMT
Latest map of turnout by department.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 24, 2022 13:18:22 GMT
Leader of the World Mountain People Movement apparently. I had no idea such a thing existed. They're the ones who released the double EP "Nihilistic Political Vandalism" that Sibboleth mentioned.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 24, 2022 12:47:05 GMT
Polynésie française: Macron 51.81% Expats in South and North America: Macron getting 80-90% Turnout amongst expats looks poor so far, although Swiss news reports large queues to vote there.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 24, 2022 12:45:01 GMT
Lassalle has abstained.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 22, 2022 17:37:01 GMT
I'd never thought of Essone as Croydon but you're absolutely on the money. Créteil over in Val-de-Marne is like a Croydon/Basingstoke mix. I once found myself working on an industrial estate in the Essone and wondered why there was a giant concrete wall out the back window. It was Fleury-Merogis prison: very grim! If it was in Croydon downtown it would be the most attractive building And would have fewer loitering criminals than East Croydon station.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 22, 2022 15:23:39 GMT
The south east of the Val-de-Oise and maybe some patches of the far west of Yvelines aside, the outer parts of the IdF are much more the equivalent to the 'inner' (from a London perspective) parts of the Home Counties than Outer London as such, so... the issue here is more that while that is true Seine-et-Marne also includes random bits of banlieue, not enclaves but contiguous to their counterparts in SSD and VdM, and these are the most densely populated bits. Essonne similarly comes out not too dissimilar to Croydon C + Croydon S + E Surrey. I'd never thought of Essone as Croydon but you're absolutely on the money. Créteil over in Val-de-Marne is like a Croydon/Basingstoke mix. I once found myself working on an industrial estate in the Essone and wondered why there was a giant concrete wall out the back window. It was Fleury-Merogis prison: very grim!
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 21, 2022 7:43:54 GMT
To summarise the debate objectively: Le Pen did far better than the car-crash of the last election, but Macron thrives on this sort of thing and impressed.
Subjectively: re-open nominations.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 20, 2022 16:57:15 GMT
I do not approve of nihilistic psephological vandalism. That sounds like the name of someone's difficult third album where they insist on writing their own material.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 18, 2022 20:46:57 GMT
They'll be enjoying "crêpes d'avoine Staffordoise" before the year is out. And calling each other "canard".
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 18, 2022 19:48:29 GMT
Manu of the Five Villes.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 18, 2022 8:19:27 GMT
Manu has half-jokingly referred to himself today as being from the extreme centre. He is so close to self-awareness and yet so far.
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Post by Devil Wincarnate on Apr 17, 2022 15:21:00 GMT
despite a long record of questionable remarks up to and including 'raghead'. But he made a serious attempt to win their support, It is yet another example of his cynical attitude to these things, and how the targets or nature of his demagoguery shift as and when needed. See also his past "contributions" to the subject of minority languages in France. On this topic, he really does get a free pass. It's as if Sarkozy had followed up his comments about "racaille" and Karcher by portraying himself as the man to defend Aulnay-sous-bois and La Castellane.
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